It was an amazing honor when Mark Simon of Sports activities Information Options requested me to vote for this 12 months’s Fielding Bible Awards. In case you haven’t heard of them earlier than, they’re a substitute for Gold Gloves that had been devised by SIS and John Dewan in 2006. A panel of consultants votes for 10 gamers throughout the majors at every place, in addition to a multi-position award and a defensive participant of the 12 months. The awards can be launched tomorrow, October 24, at 2 p.m. ET.
Think about my shock after I bought requested to be a type of consultants. I think about myself a robust analyst, however that is the large time: Peter Gammons is a frequent voter, and it’s downright terrifying to be in comparison with him. So if I used to be going to do that, I needed to do it proper. I did what anybody would do in my place: I had a protracted dialog with MLB Chief Information Architect Tom Tango about methods to consider defensive techniques.
Yeah, it’s good to have mates in excessive locations, what can I say? One of the urgent questions I had after I sat all the way down to compile my poll was how a lot consideration to pay to the varied defensive grading techniques on the market. There’s DRS and FRV, the 2 flagship choices. There’s Baseball Prospectus’s DRP and the legacy system UZR. All of them purport to measure defensive worth, and so they all achieve this with barely totally different methodology. They don’t at all times agree. To offer you an instance, Taylor Partitions is both 12 runs above common (DRS), two runs beneath (FRV), or someplace in between (6.6 DRP, 3.8 UZR).
He’s not the one one. There are a number of gamers who defensive techniques disagree about. Earlier than I might vote for 100 defenders (10 per place), I made a decision that I wanted to do much more setup work to be sure that I used to be working with the proper knowledge. I began by checking how correlated every system was to itself from one 12 months to the following. I targeted on three pairs of years: 2021-2022, 2022-2023, and 2023-2024. I used these as a result of Statcast modified the information assortment technique from Trackman to HawkEye cameras in 2020, however the 2020 season was too abbreviated to get massive pattern measurement defensive metrics.
Along with searching for how properly one system was self-correlated, I checked out how properly every system did at predicting the different techniques in 12 months two. There’s an fascinating philosophical query right here: If one system may be very constant, or in different phrases thinks the identical factor about gamers from one 12 months to the following, how vital is it that it matches different techniques?
In and of itself, not a lot! However you may think about tons of ways in which a metric that’s self-correlated however does a poor job of predicting others might go incorrect. Perhaps that system could possibly be assigning grades primarily based on final identify, or top, or another arbitrary metric that doesn’t change from one 12 months to the following. However Tango had a strong suggestion to keep away from that: Take a look at each system in opposition to a naive manner of measuring protection. I selected assists per ball in play. I then examined every system in opposition to that to be sure that the techniques had been doing what they are saying they do on the field: Measuring fielders’ means to show batted balls into outs.
I’m not going to enter the specifics of all of the checks I did; this text goes to be lengthy sufficient as it’s, and it’s about who I voted for, not how I got down to consider all defensive metrics. However I’ll say this: Not each metric does the identical at each place. DRP is spectacular on the subject of catcher protection, however final within the discipline at first base protection. DRS does greatest, on a relative foundation, at first, although it’s pretty good throughout the infield. FRV is strong throughout the board by each manner I might measure. UZR is persistently on the backside of the desk, nevertheless it’s nonetheless helpful as a part of the mix of metrics I used.
I created separate metric weights for catcher, first base, non-first-base infield, and outfield. I thought-about pitchers and multi-positional defenders individually on a case-by-case foundation. For every place, I first used my weighted common of every defensive place to offer me a baseline. Then I utilized my judgment to maneuver gamers inside this order, significantly once they had been shut in worth. I attempted to have an total gentle contact, although. No quantity of eye-test vibes could make up for the truth that each single defensive system agrees that Juan Soto is a below-average fielder, for instance.
I believe that this course of did an excellent job of mixing one of the best info that publicly out there defensive techniques can produce with a important evidence-focused eye on the sport. I watch a ton of baseball, and I additionally spend fairly a little bit of time desirous about methods to measure participant talent, and the boundaries thereof. I’m simply speaking my very own ebook right here, however I actually do consider that is one of the best ways I can decide who performed one of the best protection in baseball this 12 months. So with out additional ado, let’s take a look at my balloting.
Catcher
1. Patrick Bailey
2. Cal Raleigh
3. Jake Rogers
4. Alejandro Kirk
5. Austin Wells
6. Bo Naylor
7. Freddy Fermin
8. Christian Vázquez
9. Francisco Alvarez
10. Gabriel Moreno
First issues first: Patrick Bailey was the best vote I made on the whole poll. He’s one of the best catcher defender no matter the way you need to calculate it. He’s one of the best receiver in baseball, probably the most priceless defensive talent there may be. He’s solely common at blocking pitches, however that isn’t an enormous driver of worth. And he’s demonstrably wonderful at controlling the operating recreation, an enormous deal for a Giants staff stuffed with groundball pitchers who wrestle to carry runners on. Consider it this fashion: Bailey performed 908 innings at catcher and opponents tried to steal second 64 occasions. He threw out 30% of them. In the meantime, his backup Curt Casali caught 321 innings; opponents tried to steal second 34 occasions in opposition to him, and he threw out 9% of them. Runners stole 50% extra typically, and succeeded at an outrageous clip, when Bailey wasn’t round. He’s an enormous a part of San Francisco’s run prevention plans, and no catcher in baseball even approaches his defensive worth.
Freddy Fermin didn’t play a lot within the postseason, as a result of the Royals most popular an offense-first alignment, however that’s no knock on his defensive prowess. He’s an satisfactory receiver, however most of his worth comes from his outrageous throwing arm and clear mechanics. His pop time was practically as quick as Bailey’s, and he’s correct as well. The numbers don’t lie: 23 opponents tried to steal second in opposition to Fermin, and he threw out 14 of them. There’s a simple comparability right here: Salvador Perez caught an analogous variety of innings and opponents tried to steal in opposition to him at an analogous charge. He threw out 29% of would-be base stealers. That’s comfortably above common… and it’s not even half of Fermin’s 61% charge. What a spectacular season.
Francisco Alvarez and Gabriel Moreno completed in a useless statistical warmth, and I’m nonetheless not assured I bought the order of their rating proper. Alvarez fared higher as a framer, whereas Moreno’s recreation is much extra well-rounded. Ultimately, I gave an edge to Alvarez as a result of I believe he has an excessive amount of benefit in an important catcher protection talent, however I wouldn’t be shocked to see him a lot increased or a lot decrease in defensive worth subsequent 12 months. He has unhealthy habits to wash up, however the expertise is definitely there.
First Base
1. Christian Walker
2. Matt Olson
3. Carlos Santana
4. Bryce Harper
5. Ryan Mountcastle
6. Michael Busch
7. Michael Toglia
8. Nathaniel Lowe
9. LaMonte Wade Jr.
10. Freddie Freeman
Not rather a lot to see right here, actually. Christian Walker stays unbelievable; he’s been one of the best total defensive first baseman by a mile since he took over the job in Arizona in 2019, and this 12 months was one other wonderful effort. I might have been snug handing the highest spot to anybody within the high three, however Walker’s consistency was a tiebreaker for me. Defensive metrics had these three too near name, however I’m extra assured they bought him proper due to his historical past.
Bryce Harper had a robust season in his first full 12 months at first base – simply what you’d anticipate for a star transitioning down the defensive spectrum. He appears proper at residence each digging out robust throws and ranging to his proper to make performs. He’d be my early darkish horse decide for subsequent 12 months’s high first base defender; the speed of enchancment for a man who had by no means performed first base professionally earlier than final season is solely superb.
Second Base
1. Andrés Giménez
2. Brice Turang
3. Otto Lopez
4. Marcus Semien
5. Ketel Marte
6. Nico Hoerner
7. Bryson Stott
8. Xander Bogaerts
9. Jeff McNeil
10. Michael Massey
Andrés Giménez and Brice Turang stood out to me as a transparent high duo. Giménez has the mathematical edge after mixing defensive metrics – and he seemed higher to my eye, too. He and Turang are each plus shortstops taking part in down a rung on the defensive spectrum, so it’s no shock that they’re on the high right here. I used to be significantly impressed by Giménez’s means to make performs up the center. He has the strongest throwing arm of any second baseman by a mile, and he makes use of that to his benefit. Nobody in baseball is healthier at planting and turning from outrageous positions to make a robust throw to first.
I gave Xander Bogaerts a down-ballot vote as a result of I used to be very impressed along with his enchancment at second because the 12 months went on. I thought-about six gamers for the final three spots, and fairly frankly they may have gone in any order. Bogaerts completed first of the bunch as a result of I believe he would have been additional up the record with a full season to deal with second. He switched again to shortstop after Ha-Seong Kim’s harm and thus performed solely 735 innings on the keystone. Given how properly he took to it, I used that as a tiebreaker.
Jeff McNeil and Michael Massey had been in comparable boats; not a ton of innings, however cheap total defensive numbers nonetheless. I voted for McNeil as a form of lifetime achievement nod. He’s not adequate to win certainly one of these awards, however he’s been an underrated defender for some time now. He doesn’t look the half. The Mets nonetheless conceal him in an outfield nook on occasion. However he’s an above-average defender at second base, which places him proper on the fringes of the highest 10 most years. In my uncooked rating, he really got here in eleventh, a hair behind Nicky Lopez. He’s simply on right here as a result of somebody ought to acknowledge his protection.
Massey is headed the opposite route. He missed a bit of time this 12 months – two totally different IL stints will do this. However he hit sufficient to play most days, and he additionally improved considerably at second. I believe he’s headed for higher defensive days; he’s on right here so I can say I used to be there on the bottom ground.
Shortstop
1. Ezequiel Tovar
2. Francisco Lindor
3. Dansby Swanson
4. Masyn Winn
5. Anthony Volpe
6. Brayan Rocchio
7. J.P. Crawford
8. Bobby Witt Jr.
9. Zach Neto
10. Corey Seager
This was the hardest poll for me. There have been six gamers I felt snug placing within the high spot on the poll – which meant that each time I made a poll, I had 5 voices in my head nagging at me that it was the incorrect selection. Ezequiel Tovar was my preliminary decide, primarily based purely off the attention check and earlier than I had checked out any knowledge, and defensive techniques throughout the board completely liked him, which proved the tiebreaker ultimately. Each machine grading gamers thought he was certifiably elite, a top-six shortstop at worst. Two of the 4 metrics I used had him first. I’ve few doubts about what these techniques are choosing up. He’s preternaturally easy and rangy. He’s sure-handed. He had the best charge of assists per inning, which was my naive test of those metrics, of any shortstop. Regardless of that, he had one of many lowest error charges. That mixture might be why each system loves him, and it’s why I picked him over the opposite group of nice defenders.
Francisco Lindor and Dansby Swanson have been right here earlier than. Swanson received the award final 12 months and Lindor has a couple of Gold Gloves in his trophy case. DRS was down on Lindor this 12 months, nevertheless it liked him final 12 months, and FRV thinks he’s simply nearly as good as ever. DRP thinks he improved a ton this 12 months, even. Swanson, too, had a down 12 months in DRS, however he nonetheless appears the half and nonetheless grades out properly in my combination metric. These are the three I gave the longest search for the highest spot.
Masyn Winn, Anthony Volpe, and Brayan Rocchio can be competing for {hardware} for years to come back. Winn posted one of the best DRS rating of any shortstop, in reality, although he fared worse elsewhere. I believe he has maybe the best potential of anybody right here due to his ludicrous throwing arm, however he took a little bit time to rise up to hurry in the beginning of the 12 months. A technique of taking a look at it: He turned balls in play into outs at about the identical charge as Tovar, however dedicated errors at triple the speed. He additionally slowed down fairly closely in September, maybe hitting a rookie wall. If I had been speculating on who would be the greatest defensive shortstop in three years’ time, I’d decide both Winn or Tovar.
Volpe is in an analogous boat in my eyes – just a bit worse within the combination. This was a detailed name for me, as a result of they’re dissimilar gamers. Winn is often making robust performs by advantage of his arm, whereas Volpe will get by with phenomenal vary and instincts. Two of the large three defensive metric techniques thought Volpe was the higher defender this 12 months, and my combination weighting had them in a useless warmth. I gave the tie to the thrower. Rocchio is someplace in between these two when it comes to model, and if this had been a worse crop of defenders, I’d even be completely satisfied placing him first. I simply thought too many of those gamers had superlative years.
Fast down-ballot shoutouts: Corey Seager will get a nod for his exceptional means to enhance at shortstop later in his profession; he’s good on the market now! J.P. Crawford might be on the downswing, however man, discuss a gradual performer. He’s only a pleasure to look at defensively, and like Tovar however with the amount turned down, each defensive system favored what they noticed.
Third Base
1. Matt Chapman
2. Joey Ortiz
3. Ke’Bryan Hayes
4. Nolan Arenado
5. Ryan McMahon
6. Josh Rojas
7. Alex Bregman
8. Ernie Clement
9. José Ramírez
10. Maikel Garcia
If I might have positioned a single identify on this one, I might have. Matt Chapman is one of the best by a mile. Everybody agrees. The man is only a wizard. I felt like I used to be that includes him in each 5 Issues at one level this 12 months, and I apprehensive that it was as a result of I’m simply biased by the place I reside, however nope: He actually makes these performs greater than every other third baseman. He’s a part of the outdated guard – he, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, and José Ramírez most likely aren’t lengthy for this record – however this 12 months, he was fairly clearly one of the best man on the place.
Ke’Bryan Hayes was proper there with Chapman on a charge foundation, however he performed 500 fewer innings. That was sufficient to push him behind Joey Ortiz for me. Ortiz doesn’t fairly appear like he has the arm power to play third, however appearances are deceiving. Whereas he may give away a couple of outs on balls hit deep within the gap, he makes up for it with positive fingers and nice vary. He appears to me like a plus shortstop studying third – he could be even higher there by subsequent 12 months.
I used to be extraordinarily excited to vote for Josh Rojas right here. He completely deserves it. That is precisely the place my weighted common defensive system had him – each system apart from UZR thought he was nice, and I don’t put a lot weight on UZR because of its middling reliability and predictive energy. What an enchancment! Rojas was notable for his lack of defensive prowess for years in Arizona. One 12 months in Seattle, and he’s on the shortlist for defensive {hardware}. Nice story.
You probably have any questions on particular votes, I’d love to speak about them within the feedback. I’ll be again tomorrow with the three outfield spots, pitchers, the multi-positional defender award, and naturally defensive participant of the 12 months. The awards themselves can be introduced tomorrow as properly. I’m excited to see who wins them – and I’m assured that I did one of the best I might in filling out this poll.
