Let’s Look at Swing Path Range within the 2024 Playoffs

It’s essentially the most great time of the yr: October baseball. As at all times within the playoffs, I’ve been eager to watch lineup building and offensive personnel, notably from a bat path perspective. Over the previous few years particularly, the matchup sport has change into an increasing number of essential as managers navigate the platoon benefit that comes from switching pitchers out and in of the sport.

In 2023 and 2022, I explored how Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) can function a proxy for analyzing swing variety in a staff’s lineup. At first it began as a means of investigating why the Astros have been so constant within the playoffs, then it grew to become a means for me to know which lineups have essentially the most versatility in bat path and handedness. In principle, the extra versatility, the tougher it’s for a pitcher-catcher mixture to sport plan. If a lefty with a flat bat path hits forward of a righty with a steep bat path — as is the case with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose — a pitcher is pressured to execute two completely different approaches. If that variance carries by means of a whole lineup, good luck! Spoiler alert, I’m principally describing the Dodgers, however extra on that later.

As I’ve stated in numerous blogs of mine, VBA isn’t a catch-all metric for describing bat path. Assault Angle (AA) and Vertical Entry Angle (VEA), amongst different metrics, are essential for understanding the total story of every participant’s path. However on this piece, I’m going to stay with simply VBA as a result of that’s what I’ve used for this piece in earlier years. Listed here are a couple of key factors which are essential to rehash earlier than exhibiting the outcomes.

For left-handed hitters, I made their common VBA adverse to account for the truth that they swing from the opposite facet of the plate. (VBA information is offered by SwingGraphs.) For switch-hitters, I multiplied their common VBA by -0.72 as a result of the league-wide fee of switch-hitter plate appearances that come towards righty pitchers — when they’re batting lefty — is 72%. Moreover, regardless that I used regular-season VBA information, I included solely hitters who’ve recorded at the least one playoff plate look this yr within the pattern. By not together with guys who didn’t bat throughout the postseason, the dataset is extra consultant of every playoff staff’s VBA variance based mostly on how its offense is presently constructed. With the remaining group of gamers, I took the variance of the VBAs on the given staff and adjusted it to be a share above or under common. The common is ready at 100, identical to wRC+. With out additional ado, right here is the replace on VBAVar+ for 2024:

As I alluded to earlier, the Dodgers come out on prime this yr. Their addition of Shohei Ohtani is a giant assist. Shocker! He comes earlier than Mookie Betts, who’s then adopted by Freddie Freeman. From a VBA perspective, these three hitters supply quick variance atop the lineup. Ohtani’s VBA sits round 34 levels on common (though we all know he can alter his swing a ton). Betts provides a really comparable VBA at simply round 33.7 levels, however his comes from the opposite facet of the plate, and he’s a lot shorter than Ohtani. After that, Freeman has one of many steepest swings in baseball at simply over 40 levels on common. The completely different angles are one solution to illuminate how completely different they’re as hitters. They drive pitchers to execute a number of pitches in numerous places as a result of every of them has completely different strengths or weaknesses because of the shapes of their swings.

Being and not using a wholesome Freeman takes a flexible layer out of the lineup. The primary baseman is nursing a sprained ankle and bone bruise, an damage that will usually warrant a restoration time of 4 to 6 weeks. He didn’t play within the Dodgers’ 8-0 win over the Padres in Recreation 4 on Wednesday, however he’s within the lineup for Friday night time’s Recreation 5. Both means, he isn’t at full power. Throughout his Recreation 4 absence, Max Muncy moved over to his previous dwelling at first base, whereas Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernández break up the third base duties. Because the Dodgers confirmed of their Recreation 4 rout, they’ve loads of different boppers following the three stars of their lineup. It begins with Teoscar Hernández’s impartial VBA of 33-34 levels. He’s adopted by Muncy’s barely flatter swing (31 levels). Then comes the righty Will Smith along with his steeper angle of about 36 levels. The underside third is highlighted by Gavin Lux and Tommy Edman, who present pitchers one other completely different look with their flatter swings (each lower than 29 levels on common). I do know, I principally listed the complete lineup, however that’s precisely the purpose: The Dodgers have a ton of gifted hitters with completely different swing profiles, making it very tough for pitchers to give you a concrete gameplan to get them out. Final season, the Dodgers have been second on this metric. The additions of Ohtani, Teoscar Hernández, and Edman, in addition to the return of Lux from damage, have helped push the Dodgers to the highest of the checklist.

The Yankees even have loads of star energy of their lineup. They’ve struggled offensively to date by means of their 4 playoff video games and are simply barely above common by way of lineup swing variance. Choose is their solely hitter on this pattern who has a median VBA above 33 levels. Nonetheless, as I discussed earlier, the highest of their lineup is all of the extra harmful as a result of their two finest hitters, Choose and Soto, have fully completely different VBAs. Choose’s is 41 levels, whereas Soto’s is 26, they usually additionally come from completely different sides of the plate.

The Padres and Royals seem third and fourth on this leaderboard, respectively. San Diego’s placement is basically attributable to its means to rotate left- and right-handed hitters. On Wednesday, the Padres’ lineup went like this: L, R, L, R, L, R, L, R, L. There’s one spot that stands proud particularly: Batting Manny Machado fourth and Jackson Merrill fifth. Machado’s flat swing is geared towards crushing heaters, whereas Merrill’s steeper swing (and flexibility) permits him to hit sliders nicely. If pitchers need to spam sliders to Machado, they’re pressured to regulate rapidly and take a unique strategy with Merrill. Sure, that’s potential. But when it makes issues even simply barely tougher for pitchers, it’s price it.

Kansas Metropolis is kind of completely different from the opposite groups mentioned thus far as a result of its offense is prime heavy. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are the 2 key threats. For those who’re not going to overwhelm pitchers offensively with a bunch of star energy, at the least give them various appears, proper? That’s what this lineup does. The Royals have a handful of lefty hitters with completely different VBAs, starting from Kyle Isbel (very flat) to Adam Frazier (very steep). The Tigers, the opposite AL Central staff to safe a Wild Card berth, are an identical story.

The Tigers have executed simply sufficient offensively throughout the playoffs thus far. They haven’t actually had a giant breakout sport, however their versatility has allowed A.J. Hinch to make pinch-hitting selections that put his staff in a greater place to play towards the strengths of Detroit’s opponents. instance of this got here in Recreation 2 of the Wild Card Collection towards the Houston Astros, when Andy Ibáñez pinch-hit for Zach McKinstry towards left-hander Josh Hader within the eighth inning. From a handedness perspective, the transfer is straight ahead; McKinstry bats left-handed whereas Ibáñez is a righty. However what makes this an particularly shrewd transfer is the truth that, from a bat path perspective, Ibáñez could be a super matchup for the Tigers towards Hader. Hader has a flat strategy angle on his fastball, which he’s attempting to maintain above the bats of hitters, and Ibáñez has a flat swing — on common, his VBA hovered between 26 and 27 levels this season — which helps him to keep away from swinging beneath greater pitches. That’s precisely what occurred. Hader fired a sinker up within the zone, and Ibáñez hammered it for a go-ahead double.

And generally, you’ve comparable personnel who’re all taking part in so nicely that having variance doesn’t matter all that a lot! That’s precisely what’s occurring in Queens. Nearly the complete Mets lineup is inside 5 levels of VBA. The one exception is J.D. Martinez, who has a steeper path within the excessive 30s. I don’t suppose the Mets’ place all the way in which down on this leaderboard is a foul factor; good hitters are good hitters no matter their swing paths. Placing collectively a lineup with a excessive VBA variance is only one solution to construct a successful staff, but it surely’s removed from the one means.

That is the third yr I’ve executed this train and it’s considered one of my private favorites. The extra context that may be added to a staff’s lineup, the higher you’ll be able to perceive matchups and managerial selections. Within the small pattern of the playoffs, groups must flex no matter aggressive benefit is on the market. When you’ve the personnel to make life tougher to your opponents, you higher train it.