How the Marlins Ought to Be Shopping for Prospects

The Marlins have added exactly 4 gamers to a 40-man roster that misplaced 100 video games final season. These 4 new acquisitions — infielder Eric Wagaman, catcher Liam Hicks, infielder Max Acosta and first baseman Matt Mervis — have boosted their at the moment NL-low payroll by … properly, zero, mainly. Wagaman signed a cut up massive league deal as a free agent. Hicks was a Rule 5 choose. Acosta came visiting within the Jake Burger commerce. Mervis was swapped for Vidal Brujan after the latter was designated for project in Miami.

The one staff at the moment projected for a decrease payroll than the Marlins is the Athletics, and the A’s have been lively sufficient this winter that it nonetheless appears doubtless they’re going to make an addition or two and leapfrog over the Fish. (A’s GM David Forst has already gone on document to say he is hopeful of one other addition or two.)

Proper now, the Marlins challenge for a $67MM payroll, per RosterResource. Their projected CBT quantity is $84MM. Each numbers are due largely to the $12MM owed to the since-released Avisail Garcia, whose four-year contract concludes in 2025.

Even by the Marlins’ requirements, the 2025 payroll is at the moment dipping to a brand new low when in comparison with current seasons. Miami has trotted out payrolls of $84MM, $110MM and $106MM, respectively over the previous three seasons. That is not a lot, after all, however these numbers are lightyears greater than the present projection. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has steered that the Marlins, just like the A’s, could have to spend some further funds to retain their revenue-sharing standing. They have not been as stingy because the A’s in current seasons, however the Fish actually aren’t a paragon of aggressive roster maneuvering. Miami’s current offseason exercise (or lack thereof) would not bode properly for subsequent additions. Their lone free agent signing final offseason was Tim Anderson on a one-year, $5MM deal.

Miami did spend a mixed $25MM on Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto the prior season, although that was beneath a distinct entrance workplace regime. Second-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has made it abundantly clear — by means of actions slightly than phrases — that he had zero religion within the roster he inherited returning to rivalry after a shock postseason berth in 2023.

The Fish waited barely greater than a month into the 2024 season earlier than buying and selling Luis Arraez to the Padres, and when the deadline rolled round they traded away a staggering 9 extra gamers who’d opened the season on the roster. In a span of simply three months, Bendix traded practically 40% of his Opening Day roster (together with JT Chargois and Huascar Brazoban, who have been solely off the Opening Day roster on account of harm and visa points, respectively.) Had Jesus Luzardo not been injured, Miami would doubtless have traded 11 of 26 gamers from the Opening Day membership.

Given these developments, there’s little purpose to suppose the Marlins will spend any significant cash on the upcoming participant payroll. And whereas the notion of “shopping for” prospects is recommended far, way over it’s really put into observe — a lot in order that I am typically reluctant to dedicate a lot time excited about the idea in any respect. Nevertheless, given not solely the precise place through which the Marlins discover themselves however the broader context of this particular person offseason, it feels just like the Marlins are lacking a possibility if they are not extra severely attempting to drive one of these transaction.