From the second he stepped on a university basketball courtroom, Dylan Harper has been one of many nation’s greatest gamers. Rutgers’ freshman guard sits close to the highest of most 2025 NBA Draft boards on account of his elite driving and powerful passing potential. His 30% help fee and a couple of.0 assist-to-turnover ratio are stellar, however we are able to be taught far more about his passing.
I hand-tracked practically all of Harper’s passes utilizing Synergy, simply as I did for Kasparas Jakucionis. Right here’s that knowledge earlier than we dive into the main points:
i hand tracked (nearly) all of dylan harper’s passes up to now this season, right here’s the info i collected (by way of synergy). actually spectacular work below stress/avoiding passing turnovers
definitions and the jakucionis charting within the thread under pic.twitter.com/fJxnadB2BS
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 14, 2025
As soon as once more, hand-tracking passing makes an attempt goals to seize extra a couple of prospect’s passing projection. Excessive-value passes, weak hand passes and productiveness below stress are all vital for NBA lead guard passers regardless of not being current within the field rating.
All assists aren’t created equal regardless that they’re all value the identical within the field rating. Monitoring “big-time passes,” impressed by Professional Soccer Focus’s “big-time throw” metric, helps us perceive what sort of passes a participant throws. I subjectively weigh the dimensions of a passing window, timing, manipulation, the results of a move and different passing superlatives to find out this.
Dylan Harper is a high-value passer
Out of 136 “passing possibilities,” outlined as assists, potential assists and passing turnovers, Harper tossed a “big-time move” on 20.6% of these possibilities and on 22.2% of his potential assists. That’s barely fewer than Jakucionis, one other phenomenal passer.
Let’s use this subsequent clip for instance. Dylan Harper faces a double workforce, stares on the wing to freeze the assistance defender and passes inside for a wide-open dunk. He flashes useful traits right here — poise below duress and manipulation — to create a high-value shot:
good have a look at dylan harper’s means to create excessive worth photographs below stress with somewhat lookoff for good measure: pic.twitter.com/xfpiYd1dk4
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) January 14, 2025
Within the first clip of the video under, Harper manipulates the weak aspect defender along with his eyes, main the cutter proper into the paint. I’d classify the passes within the video as “big-time passes” given the excessive stage of talent and imaginative and prescient they showcase:
dylan harper threw some disgusting passes in his faculty debut, the imaginative and prescient, creativity and talent are all surgical. he’s a depraved playmaker
solely 4 assists however i counted 12 potential assists in complete pic.twitter.com/hQfZd25knb
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) November 8, 2024
Dylan Harper thrives below stress
Elite lead guards on the NBA stage should deal with and crack stress, particularly given fashionable defenses’ tendency to lure and blitz. Harper’s passing in opposition to stress has been phenomenal regardless of seeing an honest quantity of stress. He recorded simply three passing turnovers (10%) on his 30 possibilities below stress, showcasing initiator-quality poise and zen with the ball.
The overwhelming majority of Harper’s turnovers resulted from dealing with errors, travels or offensive fouls. Simply 10 of his 35 turnovers got here by way of passes. They resulted equally from poor choices or passing angle/timing/supply selections. When Harper tightens his ball management, as many younger guards do, he’ll be a nightmare for groups to double. Harper’s means to constantly break traps and hedges along with his passing, regardless of commanding an enormous 28.9% utilization fee, is spectacular.
Evaluating passing talent
I analyzed all 126 of Harper’s potential assists to be taught extra about his particular passing tendencies. An unlimited 26.2% of these potential assists led to simple photographs on the rim (in comparison with 14.3% for Jakucionis).
Harper loves zipping passes by defenders to cutters and rollers and his offenses profit vastly. He doesn’t move as a lot out of his drives, although, with simply 12.7% of his potential assists ensuing from his personal paint touches. When Harper touches the paint, he tends to shoot or draw a foul, fairly than passing out.
Elite passers should manipulate defenses with their eyes, physique motion or ball fakes. Dylan Harper manipulated defenses on 7.1% of his potential assists, coincidentally the very same fee as Jakucionis. He likes to pump faux and toy with the ball earlier than discovering his chosen passing angle. He’ll sometimes move along with his proper hand (5.5% fee and use the reside dribble (10.3% fee), however Harper prefers choosing the ball up and passing with two fingers.
As at all times, any type of hand-tracking is inherently subjective and vulnerable to human error. A distinct scout charting the identical performs could provide you with utterly totally different outcomes. Nonetheless, this train can assist us be taught extra concerning the specifics of prospect traits. Monitoring extra prospects’ passing will assist us examine and distinction to find out that are the true greatest passers within the draft.
