Whereas fan bases for non-playoff groups lick their wounds and prepare for the 2025 NFL draft, maybe the best 5 days of soccer ever (beginning Thursday night time) are forward for everybody to get pleasure from. The Faculty Soccer Playoffs will take their subsequent step towards a Nationwide Champion earlier than the NFL playoffs take the stage beginning Saturday night time. Whereas now not referred to as “Tremendous Wild Card Weekend,” the wild card slate of video games must be tremendous anyway.
In a match made in “Arduous Knocks: In Season With the AFC North” heaven, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens renew their heated rivalry whereas a rematch from Brazil, the Inexperienced Bay Packers versus the Philadelphia Eagles, highlights the NFC aspect of issues.
The identify worth within the playoffs is off the chart with Josh Allen trying to construct on his, maybe, MVP season, Jim Harbaugh making an attempt to cease “Chargering” from taking place once more, Lamar Jackson hoping to shake his playoff struggles, Baker Mayfield’s continued redemption arc and rookies Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix making an attempt to drag off upsets.
Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, amongst others, are hoping to show you possibly can trip a operating recreation to success within the NFL’s postseason.
The variety of thrilling potential Tremendous Bowl matchups has us salivating on the prospects.
Now it’s time to spin every little thing ahead from the common season. Whereas we’re a month or so away from discovering out who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy this 12 months, every spherical of the playoffs guarantees to be thrilling. Trying to foretell the outcomes of those video games, when the very best are taking part in the very best, is troublesome. Bettors on FanDuel, and FanDuel themselves, are on the lookout for each morsel of data to assist make their predictions.
In 2023, DVOA was good in predicting matchups in Wild Card weekend so we thought we’d proceed to make use of that analytical piece of knowledge to assist inform our predictions. DVOA breaks down the standard of play in comparison with the league common whereas adjusting for the energy of the opponents being performed. It’s considered one of a few catch-all analytics measures that assist us perceive the attractive recreation of soccer higher.
Curiously, the 2 groups that earned the highest seeds and bye of their convention weren’t the highest general DVOA crew in the course of the common season. For the second 12 months in a row, that honor went to the Baltimore Ravens with a 41.4$ Complete DVOA, down from 45.5% final 12 months. The Detroit Lions are second general at 34.8% whereas the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are all the way in which down at eight at 14.7%
The highest 11 Complete DVOA groups made the playoffs and all 14 postseason groups fell throughout the prime 17 in that measure.
To be clear, DVOA isn’t good nor would it not declare to foretell the winners of sure video games. Too many variables that can not be codified, like climate, accidents, officiating and extra, can play a task in a one-game pattern.
Since DVOA has a historical past of being good in predicting Wild Card video games, we are able to’t assist however check out this 12 months’s Wild Card matchups and what their analytics inform us will occur.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans
- General DVOA: Los Angeles ninth vs Houston sixteenth
- Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles twelfth vs Houston twenty sixth
- Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles twelfth vs Houston third
Edge: Chargers – An attention-grabbing matchup with the Texans poor offense (as a consequence of key accidents at receiver primarily) being buoyed by their stellar protection however not sufficient to beat the peerlessly balanced Los Angeles crew.
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- General DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs Pittsburgh fifteenth
- Offensive DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs Pittsburgh nineteenth
- Defensive DVOA: Baltimore sixth vs Pittsburgh eighth
Edge: Ravens – Jackson and Henry have taken Baltimore’s offense to a different degree whereas their protection stays stout. Russell Wilson gave the impression to be having a resurgence early within the season however defenses have realized his tendencies and Arthur Smith’s unit hasn’t recovered. The Steelers protection stays excellent.
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Payments
- General DVOA: Denver sixth vs Buffalo 4th
- Offensive DVOA: Denver sixteenth vs Buffalo 2nd
- Defensive DVOA: Denver 4th vs Buffalo eleventh
Edge: Payments – For followers who haven’t watched the Broncos play, this matchup is nearer than anticipated however Denver’s protection has been that good and Sean Payton has Nix taking part in very nicely. Buffalo’s protection has been pieced collectively over the season whereas Allen continues to be the tide that lifts all ships with the Payments.
Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings
- General DVOA: Los Angeles seventeenth vs Minnesota seventh
- Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles tenth vs Minnesota fifteenth
- Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles twenty sixth vs Minnesota 2nd
Edge: Vikings – Final 12 months, Minnesota was seen as a fraud heading into the NFL playoffs however an amazing common season has them ready to shed that label. The Rams benefitted from a down NFC West however have the championship pedigree to not be dominated out regardless of being the lowest-ranked DVOA crew within the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders
- General DVOA: Tampa Bay eleventh vs Washington tenth
- Offensive DVOA: Tampa Bay seventh vs Washington sixth
- Defensive DVOA: Tampa Bay sixteenth vs Washington twenty third
Edge: Commanders – A surprisingly shut matchup with general DVOA regardless of a big hole in rating between the 2 defenses. Whereas the analytics edge goes to Washington, Tampa Bay has a big expertise benefit on this one.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Inexperienced Bay Packers
- General DVOA: Philadelphia fifth vs Inexperienced Bay third
- Offensive DVOA: Philadelphia thirteenth vs Inexperienced Bay 4th
- Defensive DVOA: Philadelphia 1st vs Tampa Bay seventh
Edge: Packers – Maybe the most important shock is seeing Inexperienced Bay because the third-best crew within the common season regardless of ending third in their very own division. The lack of Christian Watson can’t be factored into the above information which calls into query whether or not it’s best to lean towards the Eagles as a substitute. FanDuel at the moment has Philadelphia as a 4.5 level favourite.
That DVOA appropriately predicted all six video games in 2023’s Wild Card spherical offers credence to its use this 12 months. The info additionally supplies one other piece of data as you make betting selections, talk about the playoffs together with your coworkers or whereas making each day fantasy selections.
We’re excited to see the video games performed on the sector and see whether or not or not DVOA was capable of as soon as once more completely predict the Wild Card spherical.
