Reds Greenlight Gavin Lux Commerce With Dodger Blue

On Monday the Dodgers traded Gavin Lux to the Reds for outfield prospect Mike Sirota, and Cincinnati’s 2025 Aggressive Steadiness Spherical A variety, which is the upcoming draft’s thirty seventh general decide. Lux, who turned 27 in November, is a profession .252/.326/.383 hitter in simply shy of 1,500 profession plate appearances. He’s coming into his first arbitration 12 months; the Reds may have him underneath contract for 3 seasons.

The Lux Period in Los Angeles was rocky despite the fact that the workforce had championship success round him. He turned one among baseball’s finest prospects throughout an unimaginable 2019 season during which he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 59 extra-base hits in 113 minor league video games. He spent the again half of that season, nonetheless age 21, at Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis, briefly made his massive league debut, and was my no. 2 prospect in baseball coming into 2020. Expectations for him have been sky excessive, not solely by way of his impression but in addition the immediacy of that impression.

As an alternative, issues with Lux’s throwing accuracy arose throughout the pandemic season and have been an intermittent drawback ever since. His bout with the yips led to 2021 experimentation at third base and in left subject, neither of which caught. The Dodgers appeared decided to maneuver Lux again to shortstop in 2023, however misfortune discovered Lux once more when he blew his ACL in a Cactus League recreation and missed the entire 12 months. Again on the keystone in 2024, Lux turned in a median offensive season – he slashed .251/.320/.383 over 487 plate appearances with a profession excessive 10 dwelling runs and 100 wRC+ – with beneath common second base protection, culminating in 1.5 WAR.

Lux is an effective match on a Reds roster teeming with versatile infielders, most of whom hit right-handed. Whereas he’s anemic in opposition to lefties, particularly their sliders, Lux is a profession .264/.337/.408 hitter in opposition to righties and slashed .262/.332/.407 in opposition to them in 2024. The Reds look as if they’ll have the capability to play in-game matchups at a wide range of totally different positions in the event that they wish to, however from one other viewpoint, they lack stability at each place however shortstop. Heart fielder TJ Friedl has been on the IL 5 instances inside the final two years, second baseman Matt McLain obtained Arizona Fall League reps in middle subject when he returned from a critical shoulder harm of his personal. Spencer Steer (1B/LF), Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B), Santiago Espinal (2B/3B/SS), and Rule 5 decide Cooper Bowman (2B/OF) all play plenty of totally different positions, a number of overlapping with the place Lux performs or has performed. All are additionally right-handed. The Reds don’t have a apparent first baseman (Christian Encarnacion-Strand is the projected starter there, however he was dangerous final season) and it’s doable one among both Steer or Candelario will occupy that spot on daily basis, necessitating a platoon at their different place. It’s conceivable that Lux will revisit left subject or third base in order that he, too, can deliver some quantity of versatility to the desk and be a part of mentioned platoon, however irrespective of which gamers declare Opening Day roster spots in Cincinnati, they appear poised to maneuver all over to assist guarantee favorable matchups for the offense.

The principle return on this deal for Los Angeles is the draft decide, the thirty seventh general choice in what I imagine to be a deep draft. Lux has carried out like a 45-grade participant to date, and prospects of about that expertise stage are typically obtainable within the Comp spherical of a deep class. This turns into the Dodgers’ first choice within the 2025 draft, as their extraordinary first spherical decide was chuted 10 spots right down to fortieth general as a result of their massive league payroll exceeded the second luxurious tax threshold. They now have three of this 12 months’s first 70 picks.

The transition from an infield with Lux to at least one with latest Korean signee, Hye-seong Kim (evaluation right here), represents a sizeable improve for the Dodgers on protection. Kim has performed solely second base for the final a number of KBO seasons, however he’s an ideal athlete with nice vary, and it’s affordable to challenge that he’ll be capable of play an MLB-quality shortstop, in addition to a number of different positions, if given the chance. The Dodgers’ center infield contingent in 2024 was a yip-prone Lux, a number of guys of their mid-30s, and a rusty-from-injury Tommy Edman, whom they acquired on the commerce deadline. Their 2025 combine will rely on what sort of shortstop defender Kim finally ends up being — proper now, they’re nonetheless planning to have Mookie Betts open the 12 months at quick — and is pending no matter else the Dodgers do between now and Opening Day.

The sidecar to the commerce is Sirota, a 21-year-old outfielder who was Cincinnati’s 2024 third spherical choice out of Northeastern, the place he hit .324/.458/.577 throughout his profession. (Unfamiliar readers ought to be conscious that faculty stats are bloated.) He has but to play an precise professional recreation, however he participated in Cincinnati’s educational league exercise throughout the fall. Right here was my pre-draft report:

Speedy, power-over-hit middle subject prospect with plus plate self-discipline. Tightly wound athlete with slender construct, wiry and powerful. Arms are particularly energetic with low-ball energy. Probably going to swing beneath a ton of in-zone fastballs and be a below-average contact hitter. Pace matches in middle; reads and routes want polish however the footspeed is there. Projected points with the hit instrument and Sirota’s taste of construct/athleticism look extra like a part-timer. His on-base skill buoys his profile and provides Sirota a shot to be a Tyrone Taylor kind of complimentary outfielder.

The Dodgers usually goal gamers with speed-driven profiles and try to make them stronger (Jake Vogel, Kendall George, Zyhir Hope), and Sirota is of that ilk. That is additionally the second 12 months in a row the Dodgers have pounced on a lately drafted prospect who had but to get his footing in professional ball (additionally Hope, from the Cubs).

So the Dodgers flip basically a part-time participant right into a draft asset of comparable worth (albeit a slow-to-mature one) and a possible lesser, however respectable younger prospect in Sirota. In a vacuum it’s a fairly even commerce, however figuring out they arguably changed Lux with a greater roster slot in a separate deal, after which cashed him in for a number of items looks like classic Rays-era Andrew Friedman snowballing belongings. For the Reds, Lux’s match on their roster and their need to compete for the NL Central crown helps justify issues on their finish, although it’s harder to swallow a smaller market workforce coughing up such a excessive draft decide.