The Orioles lastly received uninterested in being poked with a keep on with choruses of “Do one thing!” and signed Charlie Morton to a one-year deal price $15 million. Will this transfer silence these voices? In all probability not! However as Baltimore’s GM, Mike Elias appears impervious to exterior suggestions, so these nonetheless crowing could as properly be speaking to a wall. Then once more, perhaps a wall would have a greater understanding of the significance of steadiness in terms of development, making it higher outfitted to assemble a giant league roster. However extra on that in a minute.
In a vacuum, signing Morton to an reasonably priced, short-term deal is a optimistic addition. Although 2025 might be his age-41 season, Morton has logged at the very least 160 innings in every of the final 4 years and put up league common (or higher) numbers. Given the shortage of wholesome, high quality pitching over the previous few years, pitchers who put up are extraordinarily beneficial. And if one didn’t know Morton had already crested 40, scanning his manufacturing wouldn’t yield any apparent giveaways. He has change into extra of a finesse pitcher, counting on command and weak contact over strikeouts, however the shift has been refined. During the last 4 seasons, he’s thrown his curveball greater than his four-seamer and his groundball fee has regularly grown, whereas his strikeout fee has slowly dwindled. Morton’s curve is well his greatest pitch by Stuff+ at 122, and that’s what he makes use of to induce whiffs and groundballs. His different choices have Stuff+ scores starting from 72 to 86, however he locates them properly and so they mirror the spin of his curveball to maintain hitters off steadiness.
As a pitcher counting on his means to maintain the ball on the bottom, it could make Morton’s life simpler to take the mound in entrance of a robust infield protection. In 2024, the Orioles infielders logged -20 OAA and -14.3 defensive runs, however there’s cause to assume they’ll do higher shifting ahead. Final season’s numbers embrace numerous Jordan Westburg enjoying second base as a substitute of third, the place he’s a a lot stronger defender, and Ramón Urías taking a look at instances overcooked whereas protecting the recent nook after Westburg went down with a fractured hand. In the meantime, it is a younger crew that also has room for development. Ryan Mountcastle’s protection at first has seen small year-over-year enhancements since 2022, when he made the transfer from the outfield everlasting. Ideally, Jackson Holliday will get settled in at second, and although Gunnar Henderson’s play at shortstop is the least of anybody’s concern, on condition that he’s nonetheless solely 23, there’s no cause to assume he’s accomplished leveling up his sport.
If his current observe file continues into 2025, Morton can contribute necessary innings to a contending crew. However within the context of the present Orioles roster, and alongside the information that Corbin Burnes is formally off the market (with no affordable substitute for Burnes accessible in free company), bringing in Morton isn’t sufficient to assist the O’s progress from good common season crew to profitable postseason crew.
Up to now, Baltimore’s offseason has been characterised by modest shuffling on the margins of the roster. First, including Gary Sánchez to tackle the James McCann position of sharing time behind the plate with Adley Rutschman to maintain him recent and productive. Then, signing Tyler O’Neill to take over for outfielder Anthony Santander, who’s prone to signal elsewhere in free company. And at last, bringing in Tomoyuki Sugano, a 35-year-old NPB veteran with questions round how properly his stuff will translate to MLB. None of those strikes definitively makes Baltimore higher; actually, the aim of those additions is generally to interchange gamers who’re now not on the crew. Morton, although, can not replicate Burnes’ worth, so if the Orioles are going to make up for his or her ace’s departure, they’ll want to seek out that manufacturing on the commerce market.
Underneath Elias, the Orioles have confirmed they’ll assemble a profitable roster by drafting and improvement, however when you had been to ask Elias if he’d be enthusiastic about buying a one-tool participant, no matter how good that software is, he’d in all probability say no. However from what we are able to observe from the surface, Elias is a one-tool GM. He acknowledges Orioles’ proprietor David Rubenstein’s urgency to win a World Collection, saying Rubenstein “needs to do all the pieces we are able to do inside our energy” to achieve that purpose, which presumably consists of spending in free company. Elias is selecting to not. He’s overseen a number of commerce deadlines and offseasons with alternatives to improve the roster by way of commerce. In that span, he has acquired only one influence participant — Burnes — and let him stroll after one season. This method could have labored eight years in the past, when Elias was with the Astros, however in 2025, too many groups excel in a number of sides of roster development, and Elias can not get away with relying completely drafting and creating. That’s very true for Baltimore, a crew that churns out a surplus of place gamers from its pipeline, however not sufficient pitchers. The O’s want a extra balanced method.
Elias denies that he’s unwilling to signal free brokers who would require the Orioles to surrender a compensatory draft decide; as a substitute, he’s mentioned the crew weighs the worth of these picks when evaluating potential signings. That’s affordable sufficient, however contemplating how inactive the O’s have been on the high of the free agent market since Elias took over, it’s honest to surprise if he inflates the worth of draft picks. Or, perhaps he doesn’t regulate for the truth that draft picks present future worth, and the Orioles want main league worth proper now. It’s the accountability of a GM to handle a number of goals inside the entrance workplace. That Elias appears singularly targeted on constructing a system for sustainable success, even when it comes on the expense of profitable within the current, is confounding.
Elias has made it clear that sustainability and avoiding contracts which may flip into lifeless cash on the books is a part of how he evaluates himself. As he spoke about Rubenstein’s enthusiasm for profitable, he went on to say that doing all the pieces “inside our energy” additionally means “inside our ability set to method that appropriately, and there’s measurement to the way you go about this enterprise. There’s give and take. You possibly can’t do all the pieces that you just wish to do on a regular basis.” I might argue measuring the way you go about it ought to embrace the chance value of strikes not made. Elias might imagine he’s insulated himself and the crew from the danger of huge unfavourable line objects on his résumé by solely trafficking in small scale offers, however the worth misplaced by not signing Blake Snell or Burnes or anybody else also needs to present up in pink ink on his efficiency evaluation. Inaction carries threat that may be simply as impactful as the danger of overpaying a longtime participant. And whereas it’s honest to notice that Elias is much from the one GM selecting to play it protected on the free agent market, if he’s so threat averse that he can’t bear the thought of handing out a contract with an AAV over $20 million, he’s going to have a troublesome time establishing a roster that may win a sequence in October.
And whereas we’re speaking about October, the Orioles have seemed good within the common season for a few years now – solely to get swept out of the postseason. Random variation briefly sequence explains some, if not all, of their playoff misfortunes. But it surely additionally offers a simple excuse for justifying inertia. Baltimore’s roster has confirmed itself completely sufficient for profitable within the common season. The offense is formidable and the pitching has carried out properly sufficient regardless of accidents and patches of inconsistency. Over the course of 162 video games, there’s room for gamers to overlook time or undergo slumps, and it’s okay to depend on the fringey corners of the roster to make a contribution. However to beat the randomness of the postseason, groups want influence gamers who can keep locked in for a full sequence or carry the specter of tilting the sport with one swing of the bat. And crucially, they want to have the ability to do it below the stress of the postseason. Pretty much as good as Baltimore is at improvement, it’s very troublesome to develop good postseason performers with out veteran teammates round to steer by instance and present them the way it’s accomplished.
Re-tooling on the margins will convey the O’s continued success within the common season, however doing that and never including an impactful veteran presence to a younger roster creates yet one more imbalance, one which doesn’t take into account what it takes for a roster to additionally achieve success within the postseason. Final 12 months, the Orioles made a transfer in the appropriate path by buying and selling for Burnes, a longtime ace, to steer the pitching workers. They nonetheless didn’t handle a postseason win, however that doesn’t imply the method was unsuitable. If something, the Orioles didn’t go far sufficient with their roster additions. However, as a substitute of studying from final 12 months’s prudence, Elias appears to be backtracking.
The Orioles had been good to signal Morton; he’s nonetheless a succesful pitcher and he does present a veteran presence. However at this level in his profession, he’s a complementary piece. He’s positively not the influence pitcher that Burnes is, and an influence pitcher is what the Orioles want.
Which highlights the ultimate imbalance on the Orioles’ roster, a rotation constructed fully out of starters who both hover round league common or have upside however lack consistency. And except Trevor Rogers or Cade Povich wins a spot in that rotation, it’ll even be composed fully of righties. It’s a superbly superb rotation for plodding by a daily season, however not one which intimidates in October. Positive, the Dodgers proved you may win a World Collection with a forged of principally middling pitchers pieced collectively by Dr. Frankenstein, however given the rapidity with which they signed Snell, it’s clear they’re not daring sufficient to assume they’ll make that work greater than as soon as. So whereas it’s actually doable to have success and not using a clear no. 1 starter, it’s one thing a contending crew ought to attempt solely out of necessity — not by selection.
The Morton signing makes the Orioles higher, however solely compared to the place they had been after they didn’t re-sign Burnes. As a result of in comparison with final 12 months’s rotation, this one is worse.
