Heading into the yr, everybody thought this is able to be the season that Shohei Ohtani, rehabbing from elbow surgical procedure and DHing solely, stepped apart and yielded MVP to another person earlier than resuming his place because the de facto favourite for the award in 2025. As a substitute, Ohtani determined to make a run on the first ever 50-homer, 50-steal season. The opposite major competitor for NL MVP is Francisco Lindor, who isn’t chasing any statistical milestones and performs for a workforce whose most fascinating narratives contain an amorphous quick meals mascot, the musical endeavors of a part-time utility infielder, and the failure to increase Pete Alonso. And but, Lindor’s place atop the NL WAR leaderboard calls for consideration.
The marginal distinction between Lindor and Ohtani’s WAR totals (7.4 and seven.0, respectively, on the time of this writing) creates a digital tie to be damaged primarily based on the private convictions of voters and anybody else with an opinion and an web connection. For many, the selection between the 2 distills down as to whether Ohtani’s 50/50 chase overrides his DH-only standing. I’m not right here to disparage Ohtani for not taking part in protection, however should you discover that disqualifying for MVP recognition, I really feel that. Then once more, WAR features a positional adjustment that does ding Ohtani with a big deduction for not taking the sphere, and he’s nonetheless been holding tempo with Lindor on the worth entrance anyway, so there’s not rather more evaluation to do there.
As a substitute, I wish to discover how Ohtani’s one-dimensional position interacts with the worth of a roster spot and the constraints that it locations on how Los Angeles constructs and deploys the remainder of its roster. In a two-way Ohtani season, he brings great worth to a person roster spot as a frontline starter and an elite hitter who takes 600 or so plate appearances. However this yr he contributes solely as an offensive participant.
In the meantime, the 2024 Dodgers protection kicked off the season by declaring Mookie Betts a beginning shortstop, and formally shifting on from the notion that Gavin Lux would take over the place. Shifting Betts to the infield means nobody has began greater than 50 video games in proper area for the Dodgers to this point this season. Probably the most constant presence within the outfield has been Teoscar Hernández with 94 video games began in left and 49 in proper, the place between the 2 he’s gathered -12.5 defensive runs above common. 5 Dodgers have performed a minimum of 20 defensive innings at three or extra totally different positions; Enrique Hernández has performed each place however proper area and catcher. Altogether, Los Angeles has struggled to area a constant protection, forcing lots of its gamers to be jacks of all trades but masters of none. Between the inconsistent roles and lackluster defensive expertise at a number of positions, the Dodgers clock in under common by way of each OAA and FRV.
The roster gymnastics required to area a minimally competent defender at every place dominoes into circumstances the place hitters with distinct platoon splits discover themselves in suboptimal matchups. Early within the season when nonetheless working below their supposed plan for the season, it was clear the Dodgers most well-liked that Lux, Jason Heyward, and James Outman begin solely in opposition to right-handed pitchers, with Enrique Hernández, Chris Taylor, and Miguel Rojas primarily beginning in opposition to lefties. However with Betts, Rojas, and Max Muncy lacking chunks of time all through the season resulting from accidents, Plan A has been troublesome to keep up.
After selecting to let Corey Seager and Trea Turner depart as free brokers in consecutive offseasons, it’s laborious to not surprise what the Dodgers may appear like with a participant of Seager or Turner’s caliber at shortstop and Betts stabilizing the outfield as an alternative of studying to play infield. Enter Francisco Lindor. What if Ohtani’s DH-only roster spot have been occupied as an alternative by Lindor? In a vacuum their value-add to a workforce is comparable, however within the context of a league with restricted roster spots and a workforce in want of defenders, would Lindor be extra worthwhile to the Dodgers than Ohtani?
An apparent caveat earlier than we proceed, this thought experiment applies solely to the 2024 season. The Dodgers knowingly made a short-term tradeoff in favor of a long-term payout, and I’m positive they haven’t wavered on that call, at the same time as they submitted the paperwork to accumulate the likes of Nick Ahmed, Amed Rosario, and Cavan Biggio. This hypothetical is solely to discover the worth of roster spots and participant versatility, to not recommend that the Dodgers shouldn’t have signed Shohei freaking Ohtani.
For the primary 148 video games of the Dodgers’ season — heading into this previous weekend — I went via each beginning defensive alignment and penciled in Lindor at shortstop. Then primarily based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher, reorganized the remainder of the protection accordingly and changed Ohtani at DH. Usually talking, this meant shifting Betts to proper area (earlier than the Dodgers made that transfer themselves after he returned from the IL in August) or sliding Rojas and his above-average protection over to second, letting Lux DH versus righty pitching, and getting each Teoscar Hernández and Austin Barnes some DH alternatives in opposition to lefties. We’ll get extra into the “why” behind these choices shortly, however first let’s take a big-picture have a look at how this realignment would’ve impacted every participant’s WAR totals.
On this realignment, Rojas and Barnes see a big bump by advantage of elevated taking part in time, whereas gamers like Andy Pages, Enrique Hernández, and Outman profit from getting a bigger share of their plate appearances in advantageous platoon matchups. In the meantime, the bump for gamers like Betts and Lux comes from optimizing their defensive output. For Betts, which means extra time in proper area, his strongest place; for Lux, much less time taking part in any protection in any respect. (His play at second has been under common relative to others on the place, however roughly common general as soon as the positional adjustment is included.) The declines in WAR correspond solely to lowered taking part in time.
Summing up the projected WAR totals and evaluating to the workforce’s precise WAR reveals a 3.0 WAR enhance general when including Lindor and subtracting Ohtani. The most important features come on the defensive aspect of the ball (see under), the place shifting Lux off second base in favor of Rojas, including a full season of Lindor at quick, and getting extra innings from Betts in proper result in an enchancment of just about 19 defensive runs above common (together with all positional changes). On condition that the run atmosphere this yr units the bar at roughly 9.7 runs per win, the advance on protection principally accounts for two-thirds of the rise in workforce WAR.
The person decreases in defensive manufacturing end result from gamers getting lowered taking part in time, with the lone exception being Teoscar Hernández, who sees a bit extra time in left area, the place he’s not a optimistic contributor. Betts and Rojas spend extra innings at positions the place they’re proficient, whereas Enrique Hernández and Taylor see much less taking part in time at positions the place they aren’t.
However defensive enhancements apart, one may nonetheless anticipate the offense to take a success with out Ohtani. Lindor is an above-average hitter, however he’s not Ohtani. But, with Lindor within the fold, it’s attainable to make sufficient enhancements on the margins to shut the hole between Lindor’s 136 wRC+ and Ohtani’s 168 wRC+. The chart under highlights the variations in particular person participant output, indicating that among the enchancment outcomes from addition by subtraction. Giving much less general taking part in time to Outman and the fringier gamers on the roster similar to Ahmed, Taylor Trammell, Rosario, and Biggio helps, as does devoting extra plate appearances to extra productive gamers like Barnes and Rojas. One other plus is curating taking part in time to gamers’ platoon splits. Pages, Lux, and Enrique Hernández all see their plate-appearance ratio tilt towards their most well-liked pitcher-handedness matchups, and getting some strategic days off for Teoscar Hernández versus righties boosts his numbers a bit.
Barnes is value digging into particularly, as he advantages from the elevated taking part in time, which maximizes his notably robust efficiency in opposition to lefty pitching this yr (145 wRC+). Certain, this projection is likely to be overly optimistic; this season Barnes has solely 43 plate appearances versus lefties, working the danger of representing extra noise than sign. His profession mark in opposition to lefties is nearer to common, however the platoon cut up does nonetheless persist, and since this train completely covers 2024, it feels justified to make use of this yr’s mark. Even when his efficiency have been to dip over a bigger pattern, it will have a protracted option to go for Barnes to cease being a productive alternative for about an additional 80 plate appearances in opposition to lefties.
Admittedly, this isn’t an ideal train. Swapping gamers out and in and assuming they may proceed to keep up their manufacturing in barely totally different contexts whereas getting extra taking part in time leaves loads of room for error. These modifications work together with one another and different exterior components in methods which can be troublesome to account for. However numbers apart, one can have a look at issues from a extra strictly baseball perspective and see the advantages of granting gamers extra constant roles and crafting these roles to incorporate extra of what they’re finest at doing as an alternative of simply what they’re able to doing. And although it’s simple in charge the suboptimal defensive alignments and lineup oddities on Ohtani’s not taking part in protection, the workforce’s ratio of position gamers to lineup mainstays will not be actually what you’d anticipate from a powerhouse just like the Dodgers. A roster with Enrique Hernández, Taylor, Heyward, Rojas, Vargas, Outman, and Lux creates a tricky puzzle to piece collectively, one which turns into barely simpler with that additional lineup spot to make use of. Granted gamers like Lux and Outman weren’t regarded as position gamers within the early going, however it’s on groups to plan for these contingencies. A workforce with one or two extra constantly common or barely above-average gamers would don’t have any concern working round a DH-only season of Ohtani.
Moreover, Los Angeles’ steady of position gamers formed its method on the commerce deadline. Because the Dodgers managed accidents to Betts, Rojas, and Muncy, their wants spanned the whole diamond. There was no single-player or single-position answer. The Dodgers wanted Ahmed, Edman, Rosario, and Kevin Kiermaier to plug holes. With Lindor, possibly they’d nonetheless get a type of gamers as a depth piece, however they’d be capable of focus their time and deadline assets on getting one impression outfielder (say Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jesse Winker, or Randy Arozarena) value a win or two on their very own, as an alternative of setting out a whole set of replacement-level Tupperware to account for a leaky protection. Then, supervisor Dave Roberts may extra totally maximize the energy of his depth items to plug any remaining holes, rising their capacity to contribute optimistic worth, as we’ve already seen demonstrated.
So regardless that the strategy isn’t completely exact, and we will’t actually start to calculate the cascading impacts on the commerce deadline and the way larger consistency in taking part in time and roles affect efficiency, an estimated three-win surplus will not be a small quantity within the context of a playoff race. The Dodgers’ division lead over the Padres presently sits at 3.5 video games and would really feel a lot safer at 5 – 6 video games. Maybe extra importantly, the Dodgers are solely two video games forward of the Brewers for the second first-round bye. As accidents proceed to chew the Los Angeles rotation, and the workforce works to get one or two of its sidelined pitchers wholesome and constructed again up earlier than the postseason, the additional time for relaxation and rehab, coupled with fewer playoff innings to cowl general, is a luxurious it desperately wants.
If there’s one factor to remove from this text, it’s that gamers present extra worth to their groups than what’s mirrored of their WAR totals, particularly those that do a number of issues nicely. That’s why, in a yr when the Dodgers function extra one-dimensional position gamers on the similar time that Ohtani is relegated to DH-only duties, we will conclude that Lindor can be extra worthwhile to this season’s workforce than Ohtani. Even so, I can’t assist however marvel that Ohtani is so good at hitting that not solely does he make up for his personal lack of defensive contributions, however he additionally does sufficient to nearly solely account for the unfavourable defensive contributions of his teammates who’re pressured to take the sphere as a result of the DH spot is occupied. That’s so spectacular.
So don’t take this as an indictment of the Dodgers’ roster building, however slightly as an object lesson on the worth of a roster spot, the other ways during which that worth is accrued, and the way the methods totally different gamers accrue worth work together with each other once they’re on the identical workforce. Not each participant must be a Lindor, and most gamers can’t be an Ohtani, however there are methods to purposefully construct an efficient roster round both kind of participant and each kind in between.
And should you got here to this text hoping for a definitive tackle who ought to win the NL MVP, I’m sorry I don’t have one for you. However assuming Lindor’s again concern doesn’t power him to overlook vital time, the choice deserves to be a troublesome one if we’re contemplating all sources of worth.
