RosterResource Chat – 12/20/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to a different RosterResource Dwell Chat! It’s been one other enjoyable offseason. Quite a bit has occurred and nonetheless a protracted methods to go.

Be happy to browse round RosterResource if you happen to want some inspiration for a superb query or two. Right here’s the up to date projection for the Houston Astros with their new 1B … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

Thanks for the chat!: How a lot is a greenback/warfare roughly? How overwater (surplus) is Choose’s contract? Are there any research on the best surplus profession gamers (Jram? Braves gamers?)

Jon Becker: Now we have a Worth metric that presently values every win at $8M, although a part of our group dialogue on the Winter Conferences was about $/WAR in all probability isn’t linear. I consider when spitting out contract numbers ZiPS makes use of one thing like $5.5M for the primary win per yr after which $9M for every win thereafter. Irrespective of the way you slice it, Choose has been price a ton greater than he’s earned: https://www.fangraphs.com/gamers/aaron-judge/15640/stats?place=OF#…

Hunter: Walker signing appears to just about rule out a Bregman return to Houston, the place do you see him ending up? Yankees, Cubs, Tigers?

Jason Martinez: Numerous nice suits however I’d assume the Yankees and Blue Jays need to be the most probably groups. Undecided the Cubs wish to add extra $ and block Matt Shaw. If it’s not Shaw to start the season at 3B, I’d assume they get a veteran stopgap who might step right into a bench position as soon as Shaw is prepared. Tigers are an important match. However, except they’re protecting their curiosity very near the vest, it certain doesn’t appear to be they’re gonna spend large on a free agent. Purple Sox is also an important match, however I believe that might be down the street if he’s nonetheless obtainable in a month.

Mr Pasta: Hypothetically, if Toronto has by far the best provide for Burnes however he’s hoping for SF to extend their provide however they don’t budge, do you assume he’s extra prone to take the Jays’ cash or settle for regardless of the Giants are providing?

Jon Becker: Any reply I might give right here could be a complete guess; each participant’s going to have his personal priorities and $ distinction required to take the best provide even when it’s not his most well-liked touchdown spot.

wheelhouse: Ben Rice: projections actual or not a serious leaguer

Jason Martinez: I believe he generally is a stable large league common. Possibly as quickly as 2025 in the event that they let him play every single day and hit on the backside of their lineup. However the query is whether or not the Yankees wish to go into the season with that a lot uncertainty. Numerous good veteran 1B choices proper now (Santana, Goldschmidt, Alonso).

Ryanfromtapps: Thanks for taking the time right this moment and for being so usually obtainable to speak roster building! The Mariners claimed Raposo (C) from the Blue Jays yesterday and I’m curious to get your ideas on M’s catchers. Garver solely caught in 25 video games final yr – they’ll’t count on Cal to shoulder a lot of the load once more… can they??

Jon Becker: I haven’t seen any indication that they’re including a 3rd catcher (or a second one and bumping Garver again to extra of an emergency position), however yeah I don’t assume Raleigh can realistically catch 80% of the time. Garver was Kirby’s private catcher down the stretch so I’m guessing he sticks with that, and perhaps one other easier-to-catch arm (Woo?) half the time, to make it 70/30.

Brownpants: Likeliest 1B path for AZ now that Walker’s gone? Re-sign Joc and have him play there generally?

Jason Martinez: Looks as if Pavin Smith is the man. Small pattern however he was pretty much as good as he’s ever been in 2024 (.896 OPS, 9 HR in 158 PAs). Additionally they want to determine a solution to get Jordan Lawlar his at-bats as soon as he’s prepared. If a part of that equation is that he performs some 3B, Eugenio Suarez might presumably transfer throughout the diamond and play some 1B.

Thanks for the chat!: Assuming one other elite season, who in the end goes after Vlad subsequent offseason? Doesn’t staying in Toronto take advantage of sense from a match and contract standpoint?

Jon Becker: I agree with you that Toronto makes essentially the most sense, at the least proper now. If he has the perfect season of his profession in 2025, although, I believe much more groups are prepared to miss that he’s a primary baseman and provides him $400M+.

Dodgers Blue: If the Oneil Cruz in CF scenario bombs, what strikes do you assume they make with him?  Attempt in a nook OF spot, transfer again to the filth – and in that case, again to SS?  Or do you are feeling they’re totally dedicated to this for a full yr (plus)?

Jason Martinez: I believe they’re 100% in on him being their CF for the following 4 seasons earlier than free company (or till they commerce him). Appeared comfy on the market and his athleticism makes the adjustment simpler. Looks as if transferring him once more through the season wouldn’t be supreme. And it’s not like they’ve many different choices on the market.

DET: Do you assume Bregman or Ha-Seong Kim is a greater slot in Detroit?

Jon Becker: Bregman, I believe. There’s actually danger in giving him a protracted deal contemplating how his stroll charge tanked, however he’s far more of an impression bat than Kim and that’s what the Tigers want proper now greater than something.

Jules: How are you feeling concerning the Astros offseason?

Jason Martinez: They’ve a lot extra work to do. For now, I believe they’ve accomplished OK. Paredes/Walker can mix for 60 HR. Shedding Bregman and Tucker will damage. Their projected OF is Meyers-McCormick-Taylor Trammell. So they may want so as to add 2 extra OF and one other SP.

query man: how a lot of your arcane roster data comes from enjoying OOTP

Jon Becker: Shockingly, I’ve by no means actually been in a position to get into OOTP. I spend an excessive amount of time studying and interested by the true stuff occurring to keep up an entire different faux league together with it!

Bullock’s: It appears to me that groups do much more mix-and-match with their lineups and lot much less straight platooning.  Equally, extra of biking everybody by way of the DH quite than having a single one.  So the query: what’s your course of for marking lineups / positions / platoons / and many others, and has it gotten more durable?

Jason Martinez: Yep, it has gotten far more troublesome. Clearly, I transfer issues round fairly often through the season as a result of you may decide up on tendencies. And through the offseason, I’m solely displaying what could be a crew’s Opening Day lineup. I at all times attempt to emphasize how essential the enjoying time projections are along with the roster projection. Groups actually can have two “bench” gamers with over 400 PAs and 2-4 “lineup regulars” with below 500 PAs. However I’m at all times attempting to think about higher methods for all of it to make sense to readers with out having so as to add much more clarification.

Thanks for the chat!: The place does Stroman find yourself?

Jon Becker: The Yankees don’t *need to* commerce him, however I’m certain they’d prefer to. He’d be one other manner for the A’s to get nearer to the $105M magic quantity to be compliant with income sharing, or perhaps the Yankees can work out an iffy-contract swap with somebody. The Reds might want one other starter and may wish to do away with Candelario, for instance.

Cubbie Rubby: Do you assume both Cassie or Alcantara grow to be full time gamers this season?

Jason Martinez: Not on the Cubs, barring an damage or commerce (perhaps Suzuki however in all probability not). They’re set with Happ-PCA-Tucker-Suzuki. A commerce to a different crew might make it extra probably. Each have good commerce worth in the meanwhile.

Victoria: How a lot cash do you assume the Ms could be prepared to eat in a Castillo commerce?

Jon Becker: Relies upon so much on what they’d get in return and the way they’d prefer to facilitate that, IMO. If they’ll get an actual impression bat like Casas again, perhaps they’re prepared to pay nearer to half. If it’s extra a need simply to do away with the cash and purchase offense on the FA market, perhaps they solely pay a couple of million a yr. $22M a yr actually isn’t dangerous for Castillo contemplating what FA SP have been getting this offseason, so that they wouldn’t need to cowl a lot in any respect to maneuver him.

SJ: If the Twins are transferring Royce Lewis to 2B and need to put Brooks Lee someplace, does that imply Julien is lifeless within the water?

Jason Martinez: I presently have Lee at 2B and Lewis at 3B with Julien on the bench (part-time position as 2B/1B/DH) … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins

Not acquainted sufficient with Lee to know whether or not the Twins would like him at 3B over 2B. He’s a SS so I assume he’d be advantageous at both spot. Undecided why Lewis would transfer to 2B in any other case. They don’t seem to have a MLB-ready 3B prospect and so they barely appear to be taking part within the offseason. It would simply be to provide them another choices.

Dodgers Blue: I believed the A’s made essentially the most sense for Yoan Moncada on a 1-year bounce again contract.  Now that they signed Urshela – are they out of the image?  Or is it nonetheless doable they may signal Yoan to play third and transfer Urshela to a again up position?  If not the A’s, do the Marlins now take advantage of sense for Moncada?  And in that case, would you see them utilizing him at 2B – or transferring Norby there and giving Yoan 3B?

Jon Becker: I’d a lot quite signal Moncada than Urshela since there’s precise upside there, although they nonetheless might, I suppose, since Urshela can play a bit of quick and first too. I just like the Marlins as a match for Moncada, I’m guessing they’d attempt each 2B and 3B out throughout spring coaching and determine which alignment they like greatest.

Kave Dingman: How do you go about filling out a roster slot when the Opening Day answer isn’t on the roster but? For instance – Nationals nearer is presently Regulation/Ferrer/Garcia.

Jason Martinez: It’s considered one of my favourite elements of the offseason RosterResource pages … “if we fast-forward to Opening Day with the present roster, that is probably what they’d go along with”. Some are far more apparent holes and may as nicely have a “TBD” however that’s no enjoyable. Some folks simply neglect that now we have months to go and nonetheless plenty of free agent and commerce potentialities.

Ryan: What precisely is happening in Arizona, 89 wins final yr however radio silence to date this offseason and now they lose considered one of their higher gamers

Jon Becker: chunk of groups haven’t accomplished a lot of something this offseason, and I can get by no means being all that in on bringing Walker again when he ended up signing for 3y/$60M and he’s 33. I believe they’ll, at minimal, commerce away a starter, add a reliever or two, and add some bench depth.

John B: On the Giants, I’m curious concerning the considering in having McCray in left and Ramos DH. It looks as if there are extra apparent suits at DH (Flores, Encarnacion) and most of the people assume McCray might use extra time at AAA given his strikeout charge. Thanks

Jason Martinez: It is a nice instance of what I used to be discussing in my earlier query/reply. I see McCray as the plain “TBD” however I believe it has thrown a couple of folks off after they see him there. I’m in all probability going to maneuver Wilmer Flores to DH and Ramos to LF — Wilmer had an important offensive season in 2023 — however the Giants have mentioned they wish to hold the DH spot open and rotate it between a bunch of fellows. So that they have some flexibility so as to add yet another bat, no matter place.

Not simple to point out that on the RR web page, however I suppose that’s a superb purpose to host these Dwell Chats.

Hunter: Is there one other transfer coming for the Phillies after signing Kepler? I’m unsure I perceive the match.

Jon Becker: It didn’t make an entire lot of sense to me both. Kepler’s an excellent proper fielder however hasn’t performed left within the majors, and Castellanos barely has, so somebody’s going to be out of place. And I’m unsure Marsh is way of a middle fielder, both, so general the protection is worse than it was yesterday. Possibly they’re extra assured of their skill to maneuver Castellanos?

SH, Jr.: Projection techniques nonetheless appear to assume kindly of Tyler Freeman. Followers see launch angle issues. Do you challenge a path to common enjoying time or at the least non-Twenty sixth-man standing for him?

Jason Martinez: He in all probability has to attend in line for an additional alternative. Just like Gabriel Arias. Excellent prospect. Received an opportunity to play so much. By no means hit. Now he’s out of choices and the Guardians must prioritize him a bit. Freeman is an efficient prospect. Quick. Versatile. However he didn’t hit sufficient so I believe he will get buried down within the depth chart for now. Particularly as a result of they appear to favor Juan Brito or Angel Martinez at 2B till Bazzana is prepared. He’ll nonetheless get an opportunity to win a bench job.

YorDaddy: Would it not be sensible for the Astros to maneuver Framber sooner quite than later for an even bigger haul?

Jon Becker: If the purpose is barely to get an even bigger haul, then they need to transfer him now to make that occur, yeah. However whereas Kyle Tucker is inconceivable to totally exchange, they may at the least exchange his homers (after which some) with Paredes + Walker. There’s not an ace-level pitcher they’re going so as to add in the event that they transfer Framber, since they don’t transcend six yr offers (so no Burnes), so transferring Framer would go away an even bigger void, IMO.

Bullock’s: Mariners want at the least two infielders.  Gleyber Torres appears about their velocity.  Anybody else a greater match for him?

Jason Martinez: The 2B market is so weak. Mariners appear to be the perfect match however I’m unsure they wish to pay him what he’s price. Similar with a couple of different groups who might use a 2B improve. Possibly he’d take a 1-year deal and take a look at once more subsequent offseason. Nonetheless looks as if the Yankees are the perfect match for him.

George: Would you progress CJ Abrams to the outfield if you happen to’re the Nats and look to maneuver Jacob Younger? or simply say you’re going to not win this yr may as nicely see if he can stick at quick?

Jon Becker: I believe that’s one thing to contemplate down the road, however with out anybody who’s pushing him for SS time proper now, may as nicely hold him there. Second base might additionally make sense.

Commerce Simulator: Hey Jason, wished to circle again on my commerce simulator query from a pair weeks in the past. Did that get any traction throughout your FG meetup?

Jason Martinez: We mentioned some smaller initiatives and one very large challenge that might just about cowl plenty of issues of this nature. Not precisely a commerce simulator however you’d be capable to filter much more roster and RosterResource-related knowledge and evaluate gamers by contract, WAR, projected WAR, age, and many others. Undecided of the ETA however I’m hoping to have one thing like this by subsequent offseason.

Phil: Who’s the likeliest opening day second baseman for the Purple Sox?

Jon Becker: Although we’ve acquired Hamilton projected, I’d say it’s in all probability Campbell. We simply don’t like to challenge high prospects to win a job till we get some extra readability throughout Spring Coaching, particularly if there’s somebody round like Hamilton who performed fairly nicely.

Jon Becker: I’ll take a couple of in a row right here whereas Jason’s away from his keyboard…

Phil: With Dan’s Tigers ZIPS forecast popping out right this moment, what do you 2 assume the Tigers ought to do that offseason? Looks as if a .500 crew with room to enhance, however, additionally a # of younger guys you might not wish to block. Looks as if an SP, 1 IF, 1 OF (Teoscar?) would go a good distance.

Jon Becker: I agree with you that they really feel .500ish. I believe Hinch did a very good job of blending and matching and getting essentially the most out of his roster, however that’s not inherently repeatable. SP depth seems to be fairly good however they may use one other higher-floor man to pair with Skubal, and so they undoubtedly want a giant bat for the center of the order.

Doc: For those who’re the Mets and you’ll want to use a nook INF place for an influence bat, do you:  (a) resign Pete, (b) signal Bregman and shift Vientos, (c) look to the commerce market (e.g., Arenado, Naylor), or (d) one thing extra attention-grabbing?

Jon Becker: I’d in all probability go along with (c), assuming I can line up with Cleveland for Naylor on a good package deal. A lot decrease danger than signing an older free agent for a number of years.

Dr. J: Mookie can’t play SS once more, can he? Edman is okay for a fill in–however he’s not full-time…and the SS FA market seems to be to be fairly slim.  What do you see as lifelike choices for the Dodgers at SS?

Jason Martinez: Mookie because the SS didn’t go nice final season and, but, they are saying they’re doing it once more. So I’m going to take their phrase for it. And in addition belief that Mookie is aware of it didn’t go nicely and he’s the form of participant that can put within the work to enhance. There weren’t very many choices in the event that they weren’t prepared to go all in on Willy Adames so I believe they figured this was the perfect route. At the very least for 2025.

Dodgers Blue: Are you shopping for Clay Holmes, Beginning Pitcher?  Rumors are Mets are nonetheless FA Market – and so they have already got Megill/Peterson (each with 1 choice left) and who seemed fairly good final yr, and Blackburn/Canning (each with no choices left). I get none of those names are game-changers, however particularly IF the Mets signal one other locked in rotation arm to go along with Montas and Senga, which guys are the odd males out on this equation?

Jon Becker: It sounds just like the Mets have a plan for him and it’s not simply “we’re going to stretch you out and see what occurs” so certain, I purchase it. I believe Senga, Peterson, Montas, and Holmes have 4 spots, and so they might go to a six-man. So two spots for Blackburn, Canning, and Megill. Blackburn may very well be traded and both or each of the latter two might find yourself within the bullpen, although

Jules: Jason, do the Astros commerce Framber Valdez for OF?

Jason Martinez: No, I nonetheless don’t assume the plan was to commerce each. They’ll hold Framber and wait out the free agent marketplace for an OF. Jesse Winker is smart. Possibly Alex Verdugo. David Peralta was actually good final season. All could be good suits in LF.

YorDaddy: I do know the Dodgers simply gained with just about wire to wire dominance, however with this new “half the groups make the playoffs” period of MLB, do you see team-building dynamics change a bit the place extra “okay” groups attempt to marginally enhance to a 85-90 win crew, sneak into the playoffs, and make some noise ala 2023 Rangers?

Jon Becker: I believe we’re already seeing much more of this, which appears to be good for gamers getting signed sooner/to greater contracts, in addition to gamers desirous to go someplace there’s an inexpensive expectation of them profitable. The Marlins and White Sox are the one two groups with no actual intention of profitable in 2025, and I believe there could be fairly a couple of extra if there have been solely 8 or 10 playoff groups.

josh: i could be within the minority, however i actually like what the astros have accomplished. The primary choice would have been to increase Tucker and Bregman, however because the proprietor is unwilling to do this, this plan appeared the following best choice. They elevated MLB and prospect depth and now have payroll flexibility subsequent yr and past. From a useful resource allocation/roster constructing perspective, all of it is smart. Am I loopy?

Jason Martinez: They’ve been to the playoffs in 9 of the final 10 seasons and have two WS rings throughout that span. It’s not that they don’t make dangerous strikes however they’ve accomplished what most groups can solely hope to do. Be a playoff contender each season. Undecided I just like the return for Tucker, however I don’t fault them for making the commerce.

Justin: Do both of you might have a digital corridor of fame poll that you simply’d prefer to share? Thanks!

Jason Martinez: My reply is boring as a result of I don’t actually have any points with voting in any of the fellows who’re probably going to fall quick or will go right down to the tenth season (Wagner, Abreu, Buehrle, Utley, and many others). Let all of them in!

Dodgers Blue: Braves BP on the floor seems to be like they need assistance. IF throughout ST, a man like Waldrep seems to be lights out, do you think about him for a serious large league ‘pen position – or just let him proceed to develop as a starter on the farm?

Jason Martinez: Appears like they’re hoping Daysbel takes a step foward and locks down a high-leverage position. Relying on how issues shake out, I believe Holmes might find yourself as a really precious bullpen arm if he’s not wanted within the rotation. Waldrep and Smith-Shawver have the potential to dominate out of the ‘pen however they’d need to drive the Braves’ hand. I believe they’re advantageous letting them proceed to develop as starters.

Determined pirates fan: How do you assume enjoying time is split at catcher for the pirates? Does essentially the most RF enjoying time go to a participant presently within the org or somebody but to be signed?

Jason Martinez: Is dependent upon how Endy seems to be as he returns from TJ surgical procedure. My present projection … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … assumes that he’ll must be eased again on protection however his bat must be within the lineup. He can hit! Thus, Endy at DH and Jason Delay because the backup catcher. Solely factor we all know at this level is that Joey Bart earned the beginning job and needs to be in line for at the least 55% of the begins and so they actually like Delay in a backup position.

Daniel: The Padres are eerily quiet, but as at all times, their roster is… eccentric. Any pathways ahead that make sense for them?

Jason Martinez: Apart from the Soto commerce that had a predictable commerce companion and return, they did virtually nothing final offseason both. Waited till the final minute to convey again Profar for $1MM after which didn’t commerce for Stop till they have been about to go away for the Dodgers collection in South Korea. I used to be afraid this was going to occur however my guess is that they wish to keep below the posh tax threshold and so they’re already proper up in opposition to it. It’s doable they’ll’t do something except they commerce Stop and/or Arraez. And it’s doable that they’ll wait till the Sasaki resolution earlier than they do something in any respect.

RosterResource Fan: Simply wished to say Thank You! The Roster Useful resource is considered one of my favourite components of the subscription. I used it greater than Leaderboards due to the Walkoff.

Jason Martinez: Thanks for studying! It’s at all times good to know that different folks out on the planet love these items as a lot as I do. And it’s the rationale why that is my job now.

Jason Martinez: That’ll do it for right this moment. Benefit from the vacation and we’ll be again subsequent Friday for some post-Xmas/pre-New Yr’s baseball speak.