The Blue Jays got here into the offseason at a crossroads. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette headed without spending a dime company after the 2025 season, the stress is on: Make the playoffs or go everything of their group management years with no single playoff win. (They’re 0-6 in three Wild Card collection.) It’s no shock they have been in on Juan Soto, and after arising quick there, they pivoted to the commerce market, buying Andrés Giménez (and Nick Sandlin) from the Cleveland Guardians in trade for Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell. The Guardians then despatched Horwitz on to the Pirates in trade for Luis L. Ortiz, Michael Kennedy, and Josh Hartle, all of whom we’ll break down in a forthcoming publish.
This commerce improves the Blue Jays’ outlook for 2025, and it does so in a means that matches their latest team-building to a T. Two years in the past, they added Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier, maybe the 2 greatest defensive outfielders in baseball, and often performed them collectively. They gave Santiago Espinal common taking part in time when his protection graded out effectively, then phased him out in favor of recent defensive wunderkind Ernie Clement when Espinal faltered defensively. They used Isiah Kiner-Falefa to patch defensive holes throughout the diamond till they traded him this previous summer season. Now they’re including Giménez, the most effective infield defenders in all of baseball, to the combination.
Final season marked Giménez’s third straight Gold Glove and second straight Fielding Bible award. The voters (full disclosure: I’m considered one of them) didn’t give it to him on fame. He’s not only a shortstop taking part in second base; he’s an excellent shortstop taking part in second base. He has the strongest throwing arm of any second baseman and makes use of it to his benefit, ranging up the center to make outrageous performs. He has delicate fingers and fast reflexes. Statcast credit him with 37 runs above common over the previous three years, tops within the majors. DRS thinks Statcast is being too modest – it credit him with 59 runs saved, 22 forward of second place.
The Jays might use the assistance. Whereas they have been markedly enhancing their outfield protection over the previous two years, their infielders struggled. Toronto went from an above-average unit in 2022 (9 outs above common) to a bottom-half group in every of the final two years. Second base was a part of the issue: Kiner-Falefa did effectively in restricted time there, however Cavan Biggio after which Davis Schneider performed loads of innings on the keystone and didn’t grade out significantly effectively. It’s laborious to assemble an excellent defensive infield with two so-so defenders (Guerrero and Bichette) whereas having a weak fielder at second base. That isn’t the case anymore; now, I’d take into account this one of many high models within the sport.
It’s uncommon to begin a dialogue of a star participant along with his protection, however make no mistake, Giménez is a star. He signed a seven-year, $106.5 million contract earlier than the 2023 season, with a group possibility for 2030. At 26, he already has a six-win season in his rear view mirror, one which earned him MVP votes. However in his case, protection actually is the draw. His profession batting line, .261/.322/.393, works out to a 103 wRC+, roughly league common.
In 2024, he was meaningfully worse than that. He hit .252/.298/.340, launched a paltry 9 residence runs, and ended the season batting within the backside third of the offensively challenged Guardians lineup. We’re projecting he’ll bounce again towards his profession common, however irrespective of the way you slice it, the Blue Jays need Giménez for his glove first and his offensive contributions second.
I feel that makes a ton of sense for Toronto. It’s laborious to seek out defenders this good who’re even satisfactory offensively. It’s even more durable to seek out defenders with multi-year monitor data, and practically unimaginable to get them with six years of group management. At slightly below $20 million a yr for the following 5 seasons, he’s a discount by just about any monetary framework. Borderline All-Stars make greater than that in free company, in case you may even discover ones who match this archetype. Willy Adames is perhaps the closest factor to Giménez in free company this winter. His 2025 WAR projection is analogous, he too is a plus defender at an up-the-middle place who has been barely above common offensively. It’s not an ideal match – Adames is a greater hitter and on the decline defensively – but it surely’s a minimum of within the ballpark. Adames obtained extra years at the next common annual worth than Giménez’s remaining contract, and he’s three years older as well.
For a group that’s each prepared to spend cash (witness Toronto’s pursuit of Soto) and serious about protection, Giménez is an ideal match. He’ll make this roster extra cohesive. Schneider headlines a gaggle of utility gamers higher suited to the nook outfield and occasional cameos within the infield than full-time roles with their ft on the grime, and now that’s precisely the function they’ll have.
This lineup continues to be mild on affect hitters, however the Jays weren’t going to get a kind of at second base, so in getting Giménez, they’ll don’t have any downside sliding an influence bat with a shaky glove into their lineup as a result of they’ve such strong up-the-middle protection.
In Cleveland, the equation was totally different. The Guardians are extraordinarily cost-conscious; with Giménez out of city, solely José Ramírez and Shane Bieber have significant multi-year assured contracts. (Bieber’s new deal is for one yr and $14 million with a $16 million participant possibility and a $4 million buyout for 2026, and whereas he most likely gained’t train it until one thing goes improper along with his rehab, Cleveland nonetheless may very well be on the hook to pay him $30 million over the following two seasons.) The Guardians perpetually flip their roster over to maintain payroll down. Lately, they traded Francisco Lindor earlier than he hit free company, shipped Josh Bell out of city to chop prices mere months after signing him in 2023, and now have traded Giménez.
Whenever you’re working with a funds of round $100 million, paying a mean annual worth of $20 million for a defensive wizard doesn’t work out fairly as effectively. In Toronto, Giménez shall be a chunk of the puzzle. In Cleveland, he’d should be greater than that in the long term for the group’s technique to pan out. The plan isn’t laborious to suss out. Heck, Giménez himself got here to Cleveland as a part of the return for Lindor. That is simply how the Guardians do issues; they purchase and develop good younger gamers, then try and both signal them to early-career contract extensions, commerce them for brand spanking new younger gamers, or each.
Horwitz, who turned 27 final month, will present a spark for the Pirates, and fairly frankly, he would have for the Guardians, too. He’s nominally a utility infielder, and he performed 300 innings of second base within the majors this previous yr, however our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen describes him as “heavy-footed,” and I feel his future is both at first base or in left discipline. He’s undersized and on the slower facet, however put merely, he can hit. He pairs a eager batting eye with glorious bat-to-ball expertise; he not often chases, not often whiffs, and hits a ton of line drives.
Why did the Guardians transfer him, then? Effectively, in step with seemingly each Guardians prospect, his energy is an open query; he’s towards the underside of the majors in bat velocity and feels to me like a 10- to 15- residence run man on common. That works simply high-quality given the remainder of his skillset, although. He’ll most likely publish OBPs within the higher .300s and file a raft of doubles over the following handful of seasons. Steamer thinks he’ll be 20% above common offensively subsequent yr, proper in keeping with his transient main league profession up to now. The issue is that he didn’t have a spot to play for the Guardians, who already boast Josh Naylor and Kyle Manzardo as lefty first basemen.
As a substitute, they turned Horowitz into three pitchers, together with two latest draftees and a former high 100 prospect with some attention-grabbing traits and loads of threat. It’s a quintessentially Clevelandian transfer: Commerce your star for a multi-prospect return, then commerce considered one of these prospects for one more multi-prospect return, all the time specializing in depth over high-end potential.
Mitchell is a comparatively unknown amount, so I sourced some notes immediately from Longenhagen, who put a 35+ FV on the younger outfielder. Right here’s what Eric needed to say:
Mitchell is a comparatively small nook outfield prospect who hit for superlative contact in faculty and through a quick post-draft run at Low-A Dunedin. Mitchell’s faculty profession started at Western Illinois (they’re the Leathernecks) the place he hit a mixed .348 in two seasons and led the group in each offensive class as a sophomore. Mitchell transferred to Indiana for his draft season and performed proper discipline all yr, amassing a .335/.458/.512 line regardless of lacking time on the very begin of the season with a damaged hand. Toronto drafted Mitchell within the fourth spherical, signed him for rather less than $500,000, after which he went out and hit .289/.350/.467 at Dunedin over the past month of the minor league season.
Mitchell is a small-framed 5-foot-10 however takes a wholesome rip for a man his dimension. His athleticism is clear within the verve of his greatest swings, however he generates it with out elaborate motion. His swing is easy and compact, and produces all-fields line drive spray. He made in-zone contact at a 90% fee at each IU and Dunedin, although his chase fee took a leap in professional ball (one thing to observe going ahead). Mitchell’s power-indicating metrics, like his laborious hit fee and peak exit velocities, are comfortably under common however should be seen along with his preseason damaged hand in thoughts. Although they have been roughly the identical in professional ball, at the same time as Mitchell obtained additional and additional away from his harm, he must be monitored for an uptick on this space in 2025. The Blue Jays gave Mitchell some reps in heart discipline after the draft and his really feel for the place is just not nice. He performed solely proper discipline at Indiana and doesn’t all the time look nice in proper, both (although Mitchell throws effectively). Barring a significant uptick in his energy, Mitchell’s profile is just like that of present Guardians outfielder Will Brennan: an excellent contact-hitting nook man with considerably much less energy than is typical for an on a regular basis man. Mitchell may very well be an analogous platoon kind participant.
That’s it for the key elements of the deal, however Sandlin is a pleasant add-on for the Jays, whose bullpen was abysmal final yr – actually the worst in baseball, 2.5 wins under substitute degree. Sandlin is hardly a aid ace, however he’s racked up a strong ERA and acceptable FIP over 200 main league innings, with loads of strikeouts and walks because of an arsenal heavy on sliders and splitters.
In Cleveland, Sandlin was a low-leverage possibility, however the distinction between the 2 bullpens is big. In Toronto, he’ll match into the broad center of the group, behind the late-inning arms however forward of men like Ryan Burr, Brendon Little, and Tommy Nance. The Jays will doubtless make a number of extra additions to their aid corps this winter (they’ve already introduced again righty Yimi García), however Sandlin is a pleasant bulk possibility. For those who signal 4 or 5 guys like him, one or two of them will most likely pan out. As a bonus, he has a number of minor league choices remaining, which provides the Jays extra roster flexibility whereas they type out their greatest bullpen configuration.
If I have been the Jays, I’d make this commerce each time. This yr is make or break for them, a final likelihood to make the Large League Sons era repay earlier than one or each of them depart in free company. They want wins this yr, and Giménez is a greater guess to supply them than anybody they traded. He’s additionally an excellent fallback possibility if Bichette leaves city; he’d look proper at residence taking part in shortstop. Heck, the most effective defensive alignment for the group, if it didn’t mess with clubhouse chemistry or what not, would have already got Giménez at quick, with Bichette sliding to 3rd or (extra doubtless in my eyes) second.
Put one other means, the Blue Jays’ greatest situation on the offensive facet of the ball lately has been arising with dependable on a regular basis gamers. They’ve been in a perpetual scramble to seek out infield depth since Marcus Semien left for Texas. The fixed shuffle and churn has, at occasions, held again an in any other case potent lineup. Even when Guerrero turned the clock again to 2021 this yr, there simply wasn’t sufficient help round him. I’m not saying Toronto can relaxation on its laurels, however that is one nice leap in the best course, and it’s an excellent leap that matches snugly into its team-building philosophy.
For Cleveland, I like this commerce much less. It feels to me like a call made on a spreadsheet: Giménez was making sufficient cash that the Guardians opted to commerce him as quickly as they have been supplied some minimal perceived worth of prospects in return. That prospect worth wasn’t even significantly excessive: two 40 FVs, a 35+ FV, and a fifth starter/lengthy reliever kind. My favourite a part of this return is that not one of the prospects are Rule 5 eligible till 2026, however that’s damning with faint reward. I get that these guys match their system, however what number of occasions are you able to commerce 1 / 4 for 5 nickels earlier than getting aggravated by how troublesome it’s to handle all of the change you’re carrying round?
I get the thought. Greater than maybe every other profitable group, the Guardians have a kind. They appear for lots of the identical common archetypes of gamers whether or not they’re drafting or buying and selling; they prioritize contact and plate self-discipline over energy and place enormous emphasis on age. They search for amount over high quality if they will have solely one of many two. That redundant acquisition strategy makes them resilient when some fraction of their younger gamers inevitably don’t work out.
That’s how the Guardians have operated for fairly some time. Ramírez is a part of this technique, solely he changed into an elite energy hitter and frequent MVP candidate regardless of missing prototypical uncooked energy. For those who’re seeking to compete for playoff spots within the AL Central yearly regardless of a shoestring funds, it’s laborious to argue with this technique. But it surely completely limits their ceiling. For those who’re all the time buying and selling with the longer term in thoughts, how are you going to max out the current?
That’s a philosophical quibble, not a methodological one. Even when I disagree with the massive image, I respect the best way the Guardians typically handle to seek out attention-grabbing returns regardless of behaving in ways in which I, and certainly each entrance workplace in baseball, can predict upfront. I beloved their deal for Manzardo, for instance, and with out dipping too far into the previous, Emmanuel Clase’s ridiculous Rangers debut caught my eye and theirs on the similar time. They could assume too small for my tastes, however they have a tendency to do it very well.
This deal doesn’t hit that bar for me, although. It’s not like Giménez is ruinously costly this yr. He’s making $10 million in 2025, a wage even the budget-conscious Guardians might abdomen for a yr. His annual payouts don’t get really punitive for a small-market group till 2027, and common annual worth isn’t significantly necessary to groups that by no means sniff the aggressive stability tax line. Furthermore, the AL Central is extra aggressive than it’s been in years, and Ramírez gained’t be excellent perpetually. It might be one factor if the Blue Jays had bowled them over with a proposal, or if the Pirates have been weirdly prepared to again up a truck for Horowitz however forgot to name the Blue Jays. That’s not what’s happening right here. That is nearer to a gutterball than a strike. If you wish to preserve working just like the Guardians do, you’ll want to win trades, not break even. I feel this will find yourself within the loss column, even.
Possibly they have been frightened that one other down yr would tank Giménez’s worth to the purpose that his contract could be underwater, however that appears like a distant risk to me. Possibly they actually imagine Angel Martínez (substitute degree in 2024) or Gabriel Arias (barely under substitute degree) can man second, although their outcomes don’t precisely counsel it. I simply don’t perceive why it needed to be executed proper this on the spot. Would this commerce, or one with a comparable return, vanish in a month? I doubt it.
You possibly can lose a commerce and nonetheless run an excellent group. You possibly can win a commerce and nonetheless miss the playoffs. It might hardly be a shock to see the Guardians in October, or to see the Jays miss the playoffs once more. However I’d make this deal 100 occasions out of 100 if I have been the Blue Jays. I’d make extra offers too; this yr is outstandingly necessary for them. Buying Giménez is an amazing begin, significantly because it leaves the group with loads of positional flexibility to slot in an enormous bat elsewhere. I feel we’d look again at this commerce as a turning level for the Jays in a couple of years.
