It’s a disgrace that “bunts are dangerous” has change into one of many truisms on the core of the ceaseless, foolish battle between old-fashioned and new faculty, stats and scouts, quantitative and qualitative evaluation strategies. It’s comprehensible, as a result of “cease bunting a lot” was one of many first inroads that sabermetric analysts made in baseball technique. However that was 25 years in the past, and whereas everybody stored repeating that very same mantra, the info on the bottom modified.
Sacrifice bunts by non-pitchers have plummeted over time, as they need to have. In recent times, the bunts which are left, those that groups haven’t streamlined out of their recreation planning, are largely the great ones. “Bunts are dangerous” by no means meant that in totality; it simply meant that too most of the instances that groups sacrificed outs for bases have been poor decisions. That’s change into rather more clear now that pitchers don’t bat anymore. The 2022 season, the primary full 12 months of the common DH, set a document for many runs added by bunting. After a down 2023, this season was proper again close to these banner highs. So let’s recap the methods groups beat the previous standard knowledge and assembled a 12 months of bunting that the number-crunchingest analyst on the planet may respect.
The Dying of the Worst Sac Bunts
When is an efficient time to bunt? It’s difficult! It is determined by the place the protection is enjoying, the rating of the sport, who’s on base, the participant on the plate, the next hitters due up, and myriad different minor components. However there’s one overwhelming issue: There are base/out states the place bunts are virtually at all times a nasty concept, and the extra you keep away from these, the higher.
Sacrifice bunting with solely a runner on first virtually by no means is sensible. You’re getting only a single development, and it’s the least useful development there’s. Getting a runner to 3rd with just one out is an admirable purpose. Transferring two runners up is even higher. Squeeze performs have large potential rewards. Transferring a man from first to second simply doesn’t measure up.
Likewise, bunting will get worse when there’s already one out within the inning. Plate appearances with runners on base are value their weight in gold within the fashionable, homer-happy recreation. Crooked numbers are powerful to return by, and the simplest approach to get them is by stacking up alternatives to hit multi-run homers. When you have already got a runner on base, bunts are at all times suspect. Bunts that lower out half of your remaining outs within the inning are even worse.
There are occasional circumstances the place a lot of these bunts make sense. If the batter thinks they’ll beat out successful pretty typically, bunting will get higher. The weaker the hitter and the higher the next lineup, the extra enticing bunts get. Shut video games and speedy runners can tip the steadiness. It’s not a universally dangerous choice to bunt with solely a runner on first, or to bunt with a number of outs, however the larger the proportion of bunts that transfer a runner to 3rd with lower than two outs, the higher.
To get an concept of how a lot this has modified whereas eradicating pitchers from the equation, I seemed on the 2015-2019 seasons and excluded all plate appearances from the ninth spot within the batting order. That’s not an ideal manner of eradicating pitchers, nevertheless it will get fairly shut. I used this to get an concept for what proportion of bunts got here in favorable conditions – with at the least a runner on second and nobody out.
In these years, 23.2% of bunts occurred in one of the best conditions for a sacrifice. After eradicating bases-empty bunts, that are clearly a unique animal, we’re left with bunts in conditions the place a sacrifice isn’t notably useful. These ill-conceived bunts value groups roughly 0.1 runs per bunt, an incredibly excessive quantity. All different bunts – makes an attempt for successful or makes an attempt to maneuver a runner to 3rd with just one out – carried optimistic run expectancy. It’s simply that there have been so many bunts in dangerous spots.
In 2024, 31.7% of bunts got here in “good sacrifice” conditions, with a runner on second and nobody out. More and more, the “dangerous sacrifice” conditions are actually about going for a single with some ancillary advantages of runner development. On-base proportion on bunts with runners on base is up. In 2024, 25% of the bunts with runners on base ended with the batter reaching base safely, through hit, failed fielder’s selection, or error. That’s up from 22% (non-pitcher) within the 2015-2019 period, and from 17.7% from 2008 to 2012. If something, that understates it too: Loads of the worst hitters in baseball used to bat in entrance of pitchers, which restricted their bunting alternatives.
Spectacular Particular person Efforts
Jose Altuve bunted 14 instances this 12 months. 9 of these became singles. That was one of the best efficiency by anybody with double-digit bunts, nevertheless it was hardly the one distinctive effort. Jake McCarthy bunted 21 instances and racked up 10 singles. Luke Raley went 7-for-12. This one from Altuve was simply good:
That’s to not say there have by no means been good bunters earlier than. Dee Unusual-Gordon persistently turned bunts into singles at a excessive clip. Altuve has been within the majors for some time. However the high-volume bunters in in the present day’s recreation are more practical than they have been 10 years in the past within the combination. There are additionally fewer really objectionable bunters. Francisco Lindor bunted 20 instances in 2015 and reached base safely solely thrice. Fellow 2024 Met Jose Iglesias bunted 12 instances and reached base as soon as. There have been nonetheless some dangerous bunters – Kevin Kiermaier and Kyle Isbel had terrible outcomes, for instance – nevertheless it’s change into far much less frequent.
Bunting for a single is hardly the one optimistic final result, after all. That’s why you bunt within the first place – as a result of bunts result in extra productive outs, on common, than swinging away. Development is extra seemingly and double performs are much less seemingly. Particular person efforts of the highest few bunters have at all times been web optimistic. Today, these high bunters are accounting for an even bigger share of general bunts, and the outcomes have improved proportionally.
Bunters Had been Already Good
Right here’s a secret: The wars have been already over. In 2002, bunters batting within the 1-8 spots within the lineup value their groups 36 runs relative to a naive expectation primarily based on the bottom/out state after they batted. In 2004, that quantity swelled to -63 runs. It was damaging in 11 of the 12 seasons from 2000-2011, with roughly 2,000 bunts a 12 months from this cohort, which largely excludes pitchers.
The variety of non-pitcher bunt makes an attempt declined because the twenty first century progressed into its second decade. By 2015, we have been all the way down to 1,500 a 12 months or so and steadily declining. The bunts excised from the sport have been all of the lowest-value bunts, those more than likely to harm the batting crew. From 2012 onward, non-pitchers have produced optimistic worth on their bunt makes an attempt each single 12 months. In the meantime, bunt makes an attempt have declined after which stabilized, round 1,100-1,200 per 12 months. Groups aren’t dummies – they’ve lower out 800 bunts a 12 months, or greater than 25 per crew, and people bunts are just about all of the no-hope-for-a-single sacrifice makes an attempt that drew statistically minded of us’ ire within the first place.
In that sense, you’re probably not seeing something fully new in 2024. The easiest bunters within the recreation are slightly bit higher than they was once, however not overwhelmingly so. They’re selecting higher spots, however not overwhelmingly so. They’re succeeding extra regularly after they purpose for successful, however good bunters have at all times been good at that. The actual change is within the bunts that aren’t occurring.
The Mariners
I’ll be trustworthy: I didn’t count on the Mariners to high the listing of greatest bunting groups. They appear too station-to-station, too offensively challenged, too reliant on the house run. What can I say? Appearances may be deceiving. Led by Raley, an unlikely however enthusiastic bunter, the Mariners had a league-best efficiency. This one was simply good:
It was an incredible state of affairs for a bunt. The Astros have been shifted over towards Raley’s pull aspect, which left third baseman Alex Bregman on an island overlaying third and prevented him from crashing early. Raley disguised the bunt lengthy sufficient to get every thing shifting, after which used his sneaky-blazing footspeed to beat it out. It’s a masterpiece of bunting.
Victor Robles is much less about masterpieces and extra about most effort. He bunts too typically for his personal good. That results in a whole lot of iffy bunts, but in addition some gems:
That’s one other one the place studying the protection made all of the distinction. The Rays shifted their center infielders away from first, which meant a bunt previous the pitcher would depart Yandy Díaz helpless. This one additionally benefited from a little bit of defensive confusion, as many good bunts do. Who was overlaying second when Díaz fielded the ball? Roughly nobody:
Hey, each little bit helps whenever you’re bunting. And whereas loads of different Mariners contributed to their success as effectively – Leo Rivas and Jorge Polanco know the best way to deal with a bat – I needed to shut this out with one other gem from Raley. Certain, it’s towards the White Sox, however these runs rely too. Raley is simply vicious relating to attacking good spots to bunt:
It’s not every single day that you just see a squeeze bunt go for a no-throw single. However once more, Raley learn the protection and positioned the ball completely. Not a lot you are able to do about this:
Altuve may need the benefit in uncooked numbers, however nobody made me sit up in my seat hoping for a bunt like Raley did this 12 months. Hat tip to Davy Andrews for highlighting his hijinks early within the 12 months, and Raley simply by no means stopped going for it.
The Angels
By all rights, this text ought to be over. The Mariners have been one of the best bunters this 12 months, Raley was their ringleader, they usually exemplified the best way bunts are making offenses higher in in the present day’s recreation. However the Angels are altogether extra complicated and extra giffable, so I’m giving them a shout too.
You’d assume that Ron Washington’s crew could be on the very high of the bunt fee leaderboards, however the Halos tried solely 25 bunts this 12 months, half the Mariners’ tally and seventh-lowest in baseball. The rationale why is apparent: They weren’t that good at it. They weren’t the worst crew by way of runs added – that’d be the Nats, who have been each prolific and dangerous at bunting this 12 months – however they have been impressively inefficient. Nobody with so few bunt makes an attempt was almost so dangerous within the combination.
They bunted in dangerous spots. They hardly ever reached base even when the protection was poorly positioned. This is perhaps the worst bunt try you’ve seen this 12 months:
Except it’s this:
The lesson: Cease with all these squeeze bunts. Except it’s towards the White Sox, that’s:
See, our story has a contented ending for the bunters in spite of everything. I like bunts, and I’m not afraid to make use of this platform to point out it.
