Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/22/24

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. I certainly have COVID and am  in all probability going to do an abbreviated model of chat as we speak. If anybody desires two Todd Barry tickets for tonight at Crescent Ballroom they need to holler at me.

Andy: It’s early however any ideas on subsequent yr’s draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually just like the HS class, I believe the school pitching crop will likely be method higher than final yr, I’m undecided Ethan Holliday is definitely good

Syndergaardengnomes: Too quickly for a breakdown of the highest rule 5 guys obtainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s simply such an inefficient, open-ended train with an unlimited participant pool. I might spend some time simply scrolling by way of Roster Useful resource selecting names that stand out to me, however now just isn’t the time for it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Evan Reifert was one, simply looking the location like regular this week, that stood out to me.

himona: CHW employed Ryan Fuller from BAL as “hitting coordinator”. what was BAL’s draft and dev technique that produced them so many good younger hitters?

Eric A Longenhagen: They mainly used the Elias-era Houston method after they picked method up high and have been capable of land consequential over slot excessive schoolers in later rounds. Mayo and Gunnar the massive two. In addition they, internally, flip plate self-discipline and strategy right into a sport throughout the sport which appears to enhance the gamers in a significant method

John: Do the Dodgers transfer Dashing to the OF to allow them to match his bat in sooner? Or focus extra on growing his expertise as a C.

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t be dying to maneuver him out from behind the plate, that you must have depth at that place as a result of it’s so brutal.

Alexis Anthopolous: Simply how unhealthy do the returns for Murphy and Olson search for the (not Sac) A’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: Langeliers redeems the Olson commerce sufficient and a bunch of these guys are going to play within the massive leagues for no less than a short while. Pache flopping hurts however that one isn’t terrible. The Murphy deal is. I simply assume they actually, actually over-evaluated Esteury. They appeared sizzling for him the deadline earlier than, too.

Jeremy: Ought to the Phillies be planning on Andrew Painter within the rotation all season in 2025?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply due to innings rely/workload stuff, in all probability not.

Tacoby Bellsbury: How do you combine ZiPS or different projection techniques into your evaluation?

Eric A Longenhagen: It may be a sanity test, it’d trigger me to re-evaluate somebody if there’s an enormous hole between what ZiPS thinks and what I believe. I exploit information to tell choices however I’m not working a mannequin.

Visitor: Hello Eric,

Thanks for these chats. I’m ceaselessly gleaning opinions on prospects. Nevertheless,nI have a number of prospects whose latest efficiency leaves me questioning whether or not to chop bait or not:

1. Mick Abel, P PHI – management is atrocious and hasn’t improved as he’s moved up the system. Put him on the commerce block – ZERO curiosity. You’ve given him a 50 FV. Nonetheless legitimate? He’s descending prospect charts in a short time.

2. Carson Whisenhunt, P SF – at all times suspicious of fellows missing a good FB. Numbers don’t impress.One other 50 FV however I don’t see it. SF does want pitching so I presume he’s related nonetheless.

3. Nehomar Ochoa Jr., OF HOU – not exhibiting a lot at A-, BA provides him a forty five FV an HQ charges him extremely. Your ideas?

Eric A Longenhagen:

1. I up to date Abel ideas in my 40-man piece this week. His blurb on The Board is recent.
2. Yeah, his command continues to be not nice and he would possibly slide. Giants listing is among the subsequent few.
3. By no means actually on him, BA doesn’t use FV.

davealden53: What’s the way forward for Jett Williams given the huge block in entrance of him within the Mets infield?

Kevin: As a Guardians fan, my eyebrows have been raised seeing Chase DeLauter now ranked tenth general on the massive board. Is it protected for me to get enthusiastic about him or ought to I wait till he can keep on the sector for a reasonably lengthy time frame?

Eric A Longenhagen: Persistent accidents are a problem that may trigger him to slip as I do that listing cycle

Eric A Longenhagen: Flores mainly didn’t play in AFL so my ideas there are sadly TBD. Rice, no. They’ve their catcher, it’s Wells.

Jerry: Can Alan Roden (112 max EV) entry some latent energy and have a shot as an everyday in 2025? Some other underrated OF’s to regulate for subsequent season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nonetheless not a ton of launch there, exhausting hit price additionally not loopy or something. I believe he’s extra a bit than an everyday. For subsequent yr? I really feel like Trei Cruz could possibly be a Willi Castro sort… underrated guys? IDK, open ended questions like which are powerful within the second. And in addition, I’m doing the score proper?

Visitor: Is Cartaya out of the image as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, catchers take ceaselessly. He’s flawed, you hope he’s Zunino sort or turns into Tyler Flowers or one thing

Sodo Mojo: Does Ben Williamson have sufficient bat to hit on the MLB degree.? You gave him a low grade on the Mariners prospect report however he did hit moderately at AA which is normally the place hitting prospects go to die within the M’s org.

Eric A Longenhagen: The grade is low however he made the listing. I’ve an up/down on him, nonetheless assume that’s proper.

Thrice: Acquired to see them final June in Seattle for the Artist within the Ambulance tour, phenomenal present. Hope you’re feeling higher quickly.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Marquee was as full as I’ve ever seen it, enormous age vary for the attendees which was tremendous cool. I did have a bartender with tattoos throughout his bald head ask me after I ordered a gimlet, “is that the type of drink you need in a plastic cup?” and I needed to cease myself from Larry Daviding him into the void.

tumtum: Did you get an opportunity to see Liranzo in AFL? If that’s the case, what did you consider his catching and long run viability within the place?

Eric A Longenhagen: Arm is there, ball blocking just isn’t, it’ll in all probability take one other few years however he has a lot change hitting energy for a catcher that I believe he’ll ultimately be superb

Colin: Why are individuals falling throughout themselves over Caleb Durbin‘s AFL efficiency when he had a mainly an identical efficiency in 2023, and was a yr youthful then?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is that this a factor taking place on social media or one thing? Who cares? He’s a Yankees prospect so individuals are going to speak about him, he steals bases so fantasy individuals care about him.

Anon: Are you able to increase extra on the orioles farm sport inside a sport for strategy and plate self-discipline?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s like: anticipated worth added for swinging at this, ev misplaced for chasing that.

David: Little bit of a late draft query. Ideas on the Mariners strategy to drafting the final couple years? Placing lots into the highest of the draft and going after “precedence seniors” to offset the draft pool quantities.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tremendous cool, they’ve been capable of scoop up a mix of ceiling (with the HS guys), depth, and proximity by getting the precedence seniors.

Anon: Are you able to say the following 3-5 org prospect lists which can come out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Remainder of the golf equipment who practice right here within the East Valley: CHC, ARI, COL, SFG

Roman: Thanks for the year-round prospects updates. Given SD’s payroll limitations and roster turnover, do you assume that Eguy Rosario and Tirso Ornelas can cowl the bench roles that Solano and Peralta had final yr? Eguy particularly seems like an awesome platoon choice for SD alongside Cronenworth/Arraez.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe Eguy will get rostered, I believe Ornelas they could attempt to improve since you need somebody extra established and impactful to fill that LHH OF platoon sort position (Joc Pederson, Conforto sort) and Tirso nonetheless has choices left.

Buff: To return to Jett Williams, do you see him because the CF of the longer term for the Mets?

Scott: You steadily be aware {that a} hitter thriving in low minors has a gap that will likely be uncovered afterward. Different evaluators don’t appears to jot down that up as typically and generally it places you on an island for higher or worse.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve grown completely snug with this.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d a lot slightly be improper when the opinion was completely mine than a few of the options.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Brandon Younger‘s velo step by step declined when he hit AAA and settled round 92 mph. Does your analysis indicate he’ll tick again as much as 93-94 after an offseason of relaxation? He did pitch ~100 innings after being on the shelf for like two years.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m on board along with your stamina take, and in addition I believe that pitch has motion/angle that may allow it to play even when it isn’t exhausting, and Younger command the heck out of it.

Fuz: Did Kayfus’s efficiency get him a FV above 35?

Eric A Longenhagen: For positive, ought to have been on final yr’s listing.

Large Gonzales: I’m sorry you’re sick and must miss Todd Barry. He’s nice. Being sick just isn’t so nice. My query of the day is concerning the Crimson Sox. Am I improper in considering that you need to maintain the massive 4 and see how they play as a substitute of cashing out early? Teel is sweet for a C, however the different 3 have massive upsides and for those who can develop a 5-6 warfare star, then you definately do this as a substitute of buying and selling one or two for a #2 pitcher that must be prolonged, proper? I’ve seen this reset so many instances since 2000 that I don’t need to see Breslow money in all of the chips after they have cash to spend.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t commerce guys you want and assume is perhaps an enormous deal till you recognize you’re really a ’25 contender.

Ben: Is younger Chourio higher the the older?

Beau: have there been any highschool prospects from the 2024 class which have compelled an adjustment to their pre-draft evaluations primarily based on early SSS in bridge leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, I assumed Slade Caldwell seemed good, Kellon Lindsey fairly good (don’t know if both strikes, had fairly sturdy grades on each pre draft)

Colton: Odd the Pirates begin the yr with Bubba within the rotation? Looks like a good shot at profitable ROY and so they simply acquired burned by Skenes profitable it this yr and misplaced the decide

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess not. He’s not even on the 40-man, you’re taking away out of your depth once you add him and must subtract anyone else. It’s believable he completely kicks down the door, however I’d guess he ends debuting later in ’25 after they want him due to accidents, or late sufficient that his rookie standing and all 3 choices might be preserved for ’26

Ben Schneider: Hello Eric, do you assume Sutter Well being and Steinbrenner will play any in a different way in MLB video games than in PCL or FSL video games?

Eric A Longenhagen: It is a nice query and doubtless deserves its personal article from somebody smarter than I’m who can use physics or one thing to ballpark how the change in pitch velocity will influence ball flight at these locations. Sacramento is among the pitcher-friendly PCL parks, however that’s relative to the remainder of the PCL, not the massive leagues.

Coolby: I’m going to spring coaching in Arizona for the primary time this February! The place in Goodyear ought to I take my foodie accomplice  to eat to thank her for indulging my baseball obsession?

Eric A Longenhagen: The west finish of the Metro is hard, bro. Go downtown and eat at Lom Wong.

Kate: Any ideas on Boston Baro? Seems to be like contact and plate self-discipline is there, energy is behind however at 6’3″ 180ish I might assume he faucets into extra energy

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, I dig him. Has really feel to hit, projectable, love the lefty-hitting infield broad strokes profile.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll have a lightweight contact with each these guys this cycle, I believe. I had a 50 on Dominguez, nothing loopy. Jones I stuffed.

Tom: Bryce Elridge: Can I dream for a 2025 30 HR Giants participant or is that simply wishful considering?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pipe dream

Dadbauer: Ought to Brewer followers be as enthusiastic about Jesus Made than we have been about Chourio? Or ought to we pump the breaks?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in, the info is nuts and he has “the look”. Ought to he be a high 10 prospect instantly or something like that? In all probability not.

Dan: Very a lot recognize that you just shared the DSL Mets livestream hyperlink a few chats in the past. to listen to the way you deal with rating and evaluating prospects like Cristopher Larez, who’s clearly proficient however is coming off a 56-game PED suspension

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s one the place I cop out through he commerce worth POV and point out him on the finish of the listing. Is anybody buying and selling for that man proper now? In all probability not.

Eric A Longenhagen: BTW, these Mets DSL streams have featured them enjoying Milwaukee a bunch currently, for you Made freaks.

carl: i see a variety of charlie condon hate on the web. thats overblown proper? its so early in his profession

Eric A Longenhagen: I might by no means say “hate”, however “skepticism”? Yeah, however in some locations on the web that was current earlier than he draft.

Leric A Ongenhagen: Ought to the Cardinals transfer Roby to the pen? He has great things, however two misplaced years with shoulder accidents

Eric A Longenhagen: Seems to be like they did after he got here again towards the tip of the yr.

Junior Marin: Is there any particular information/trait from DSL prospects that you just imagine to be a good predictor of success as soon as the prospects come stateside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Far more noise than sign for DSL information as a result of competitors high quality. I believe you’ll be able to establish pink flags in chase and make contact with charges, however massive DSL exit velos are sometimes a product of bodily maturity slightly than ability.

GraphsFan: Do you proceed to observe prospect graduates, or are likely to observe / scout ballplayers much less intently the additional they get from graduating from prospectdom?

Eric A Longenhagen: I watch and observe the massive leagues intently

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ve gotta, I really feel like

Kate: Made gonna go straight to A ball this yr, following the latest Brewers’ custom?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s an awesome and terrifying query that simply made Invoice Mitchell do a spit take for worry of not attending to {photograph} him subsequent spring.

Jacob: Do you just like the AFL triple headers? Or does it simply make for a really lengthy day?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is dependent upon the site visitors, actually. I really like attempting to power myself to maintain focusing midway through sport 3 or no matter, amid 15 mixed walks. It isn’t nice for writing and truly making stuff for the location, although.

Ben Schneider: Did any of the 40-man additions actually shock you?

Kate: Michael Arroyo’s 2024 convey you round in any respect?  Or was that largely a product of a brilliant hitter pleasant park?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply peeking at his spray chart (and perhaps I placed on a couple of swings of him dealing with stuff on the internal third of the plate whereas I’ve been chatting, who’s to say?) this isn’t as red-flaggy. Had a whole lack of ability to drag fastballs, thought he’d get labored up round his arms, at first look that is higher.

Jacob: What can be your greatest updates to the ebook for those who edited it as we speak?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d wanna write about language modeling, minor league contraction’s knock-on results, the switch portal’s knock-on results

Ben Schneider: Once you say you’re taking a look at stuff on the internal third, do you may have a method to shortly filter pitch sorts and placement to observe video?

Eric A Longenhagen: (Smiling and nodding devilishly)

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, time for me to separate. No chat subsequent week due to Turkey Day (go Roughs). Thanks for chatting, please think about a sub to the location or no less than ditch your advert blocker, all of us recognize your assist so very a lot. Deuces