Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –11/19/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to the primary version of my Tuesday chat in awhile. Between playoff protection, election day, and a household emergency, I haven’t been in a position to fill this timeslot in awhile; apologies in case you’ve been itching for a chat (additionally, please see a physician if the itch persists).

Jay Jaffe: That one will go stay at 12:30 I’m advised. Vic Harris will observe tomorrow.

Jay Jaffe: Yet one more little bit of adminstration earlier than I get into the questions. Since I final chatted, Bluesky has taken off because the social media platform of selection for baseball chatter of a sure bent, and nearly everyone from the FanGraphs household now has an account there. Dan Szymborski helpfully put collectively a starter pack of the FG-related accounts right here https://bsky.app/profile/dszymborski.bsky.social/put up/3layykgak222s; I’m @jayjaffe.bsky.social there

Jay Jaffe: I’m winding down my participation on Uncle Elmo’s Authoritatian Disinfo, Grift,and Harassment platform however haven’t totally discovered the timeline for that. If you wish to work together with me and my work, that’s much less probably to attract a response now.

Anyway, on with the present…

Filipe: Hello Jay! Do you assume there’s going to be a lockout in 2026/27? Missed common season video games?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I don’t know! Folks ask about this each few months and whereas i might simply dodge the query, I simply fail to notice the purpose in worrying about it till we’re really wanting down the barrel of it.

Jay Jaffe: I’m positive the union is worried, however nothing goes to occur with out an imminent deadline.

Visitor: Do you actually assume Utley ultimately will get in? A whole lot of the voters are extra analytically inclined now than people who didn’t vote for the likes of Rolen 10 years in the past, however he nonetheless didn’t come shut.

Jay Jaffe: Prior to now decade, we’ve seen a handful of candidates overcome begins a lot decrease than Utley’s 29.8%, together with Tim Raines, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Mike Mussina, and (hopefully) Wagner. I’m not guaranteeing something, significantly within the close to time period, however I believe he’ll make it.

Bob: In your opinion what are the possibilities that ohtani wins unanimous mvp as soon as once more.

Jay Jaffe: Fairly excessive. There was some extent the place voting for Lindor  appeared defensible ,however his time missed down the stretch most likely threw chilly water on that. Nonetheless had an incredible season (and postseason)

T2: Thanks for doing this. If Ohtani doesn’t throw one other pitch on the MLB stage (hope this gained’t occur) however produces at ~70% of the 2024 ranges by bat in 5 of the remaining years of the present contract (nonetheless >35, 35!), will he be in HOF?

G4: Agree/disagree? Excluding Manny/Ichiro, Beltran is the on-ballot outfielder most deserving of HoF induction.

Jay Jaffe: sure. Second-highest profession WAR on the poll — increased than Ichiro, even — and a substantial assortment of stats and accomplishments. He’s solidy forward of Andruw and Abreu, and 1,000,000 miles forward of the poll’s different OFs

G4: Do you count on you’ll personally choose the utmost 10 gamers on this yr’s vote?

Jay Jaffe: Sure. Haven’t totally figured it out but; I’m nonetheless battling with my digital Traditional Baseball poll

Talfred: Does it appear to you that among the massive income groups have simply determined to cease regarding themselves with the Aggressive Stability Tax penalties? Are revenues that robust?

Jay Jaffe: I believe this stuff are usually cyclical. We noticed the Dodgers and Yankees dial again for a pair years to reset themselves and keep away from the worst penalties, and  ultimately we’ll see, like, the Mets and Padres do it

davealden53: I’m comfortable to be a FanGraphs member for a lot of causes however one of many high ones is Roster Useful resource.  Thus, I’m uncomfortable that the newest Roster Useful resource transaction proven is October 13.  Simply an offseason break or is one thing altering?

Pauly Shore: Is Paul Skenes essentially the most hyped pitcher after his first season of this century? Spencer Strider, Jose Fernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Felix Hernandez are the challengers that come to thoughts.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t actually have a straightforward approach of measuring that however I’d say Strasburg, Fernandez, and Felix all stand out as receiving huge hype as properly.

Dan Sanchez: Who do you see growing old extra gracefully, Corbin Burnes or Max Fried? Burnes has traditionally had the benefit in stuff and strikeouts, however his Okay% has been declining for years, whereas Fried’s pedestrian price has held and he’s relied on command and GB% to be efficient. Then once more, Burnes has been way more sturdy.

davealden53: Is the purported transfer of Betts again to the infield actual or only a technique to confuse the free agent market, e.g., “the Dodgers don’t actually need Adames”?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t low cost the latter risk however I believe it has extra to do with their try and retain Teoscar Hernández (and I don’t assume they’re critical about Soto however they will’t NOT meet with him)

Dan Sanchez: Jurickson Profar has been extraordinarily risky through the years, however is coming off an enormous stroll season. Looks as if for 3/45 you might find yourself getting a bench man or a star, or possibly one thing within the center. What do you count on from him over the following few years?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he’ll be an above-average contributor however not a star-level one, with a few of his worth diminished by   his crummy protection. He’s actually received to get higher on the market.

wheelhouse: is there any set of strikes by which the yankees might be stated to have had a “good” offseason through which they lose Soto? looks like a failure by default given what the opposite choices are

Jay Jaffe: I believe it could take one thing like signing one of many front-line pitchers (Burnes, Fried, Snell), including Christian Walker at first base, getting an excellent left or heart fielder and second or third baseman both by way of the FA market or commerce (retaining Gleyber is one possibility there, obv). I’ll notice that retaining Gerrit Cole (with out investing a further dime!) would even be one component of a profitable however Soto-free offseason, they usually’ve already banked that. It gained’t be an apparent win however man, these are some critical areas of want.

Phil: Will Ichiro be the oldest-debuting Corridor of Famer (googling this query will get you Paige, which is incorrect, because the Negro Leagues are main leagues)?

Jay Jaffe: I believe we’ve got to set the Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball apart to get an correct reply, since there have been HOFers who performed within the non-major Black leagues; John Henry Lloyd was 37 in 1921, for one.

Visitor: who’s your favourite “underdog” candidate and why is it Francisco Rodriguez?

Jay Jaffe: It’s positively NOT Okay-Rod.

Jay Jaffe: I’d say it’s Utley by way of ones I’m optimistic about concerning eventual election, and Russell Martin for the one I don’t count on to get there anytime quickly however one I intend to make some extent about concerning the worth of catcher framing because it pertains to present and upcoming candidates.

Visitor: Does Buehrle have a shot inside the subsequent 6 years to be voted as a HOFer?

Jay Jaffe: after slipping to eight.3% final yr, I’m much more skeptical than I used to be earlier than. Not taking place by way of the writers. True for Pettitte as properly

Joe: How a lot inventory, if any, do you place within the idea of “fame” being vital for election?

Jay Jaffe: It’s a consideration however not an amazing one. I can have a look at Steve Garvey, notice his outsized fame, after which his numbers, and it doesn’t change my opinion that he shouldn’t be elected. I can have a look at Tommy John, take into account the burden of him being a pioneer as a biomedical guinea pig, and have that trigger me to waver a bit longer as to which approach I’m going.

Jay Jaffe: Gonna take a pair minutes to share that on the social platforms…

Phil: Fascinated with Dick Allen and others makes me marvel: for you as a voter, how a lot would a participant’s well being have an effect on your vote (I perceive that it comes up way more regularly with the committees than with BBWAA, although stuff can actually occur to of us of their 50s)? If you happen to have been on the fence about someone however you thought they’d most likely get in ultimately anyway, would the query of their means to expertise it have an effect on your vote, or is it simply the deserves, interval?

Jay Jaffe: Within the wake of Luis Tiant’s demise and my ideas about Tommy John, I’m asking myself that query quite a bit lately. I don’t know the reply. I have a tendency to stay fairly carefully to efficiency whereas attempting to place it into an historic and social context, and with all that it’s a transparent edge for Tiant, however for as lukewarm as I’ve been about John for 20+ years as a candidate, the prospect that this could possibly be the final poll of his lifetime weighs on me a bit.

Searching for Options: I’ve turn into more and more satisfied that the “extras” {that a} participant brings, (Tommy John, Curt Flood, and so on) must be sufficient to tip the scales of their favor. Perhaps it’s as a result of I’m a Pirate fan and Roberto Clemente was the final word instance of this, getting in early due to his heroic and premature finish. Has your pondering modified on this challenge through the years?

Jay Jaffe: I’m positively extra in favor of Flood’s induction than I’ve been previously, and on reflection really feel a tinge of remorse that I didn’t beat the drum tougher for his inclusion on this poll. As famous within the earlier reply, I’m desirous about it re: John however I’m not there but

Jay Jaffe: I most likely would have tabbed Merrill over Skenes — he hadn’t performed above Double-A, hadn’t performed heart earlier than the spring, and turned out to be a key driver of a playoff workforce whereas taking to the place extremely properly. No downside with Skenes successful, although. He’s one thing particular, too.

Jay Jaffe: I used to be extra bought on Gil over Cowser however didn’t have a robust opinion both approach

Adam B.: What’s the optimum reply for the place the Rays play their dwelling video games earlier than a brand new stadium is constructed?  What do you count on will really occur?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume there’s an optimum reply, however Steinbrenner Subject in Tampa at all times appeared like the obvious answer and that i count on it could possibly be a multiyear one. It’s a minimum of attainable for native followers, whereas shifting them tons of of miles away wouldn’t be.

Jeremy: It’s at all times appeared a bit of bizarre to me that the vote shares of so many Corridor of Famers, and likewise some guys who don’t make it, change a lot over time. Usually beginning low and growing considerably. I imply, analytics has been round for a very long time now. No one’s going to be taught something about (say) Chase Utley over the following 9 years that they don’t already know. So why haven’t a lot of the voters already determined in some way on Utley (and plenty of different candidates)?

Jay Jaffe: Your viewpoint fails to account for the area limitation on a poll. As candidacies age or achieve help, they achieve urgency, and voters usually tend to take a better look and rethink their earlier stances.

Jay Jaffe: What’s extra, there can be turnover within the voters that helps to drive the growing share of voters. There are FanGraphs readers turning into voters, in any case.

And that i extremely disagree that “no one goes to be taught something” a few candidate. We’ve had an explosion of information inside baseball previously twenty years, and never each voter is as on top of things on the leading edge of research. However even previous canine do be taught new methods, they usually come round — I wouldn’t have made my mark on this racket if that weren’t the case.

Visitor: Hello Jay, that is my first chat, and I need to let you already know I’ve loved your HOF evaluation since your days at SI.  Thanks for doing what you do.  With that stated, I’ve to say that 1. Billy Wagner is overdue.  He was simply flat out dominant, and when he entered the sport, it was apparent the percentages have been slim that he wouldn’t slam the door.  2. CC might appear to be a first-ballot HOFer, however 3000ks + the goodwill he’s executed for the game + overcoming his demons… idk, it simply seems to be prefer it must be Wagner, Ichiro, and Sabathia this yr.  What are your high-level ideas?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the type phrases. You’ll discover my high-level ideas, which considerably parallel your personal, in yesterday’s piece linked atop this text

CleGuy: If you happen to might have created the Traditional Baseball Poll your self, who would you will have included?

Jay Jaffe: Flood and Doc Adams are the 2 most obvious omissions. I might most likely provide you with a slate of 8 perfect candidates, however that may paralyze even me in relation to selecting which three to vote for. As Dan and I modeled a pair years in the past, you really do want some ballast with a purpose to keep away from the chance of a shutout

Philly: Ought to the Rule 5 Draft even be a lottery? Does eradicating extra advantages of tanking in the end profit the MLB

Jay Jaffe: Meh, the influence of the R5 draft order is low sufficient that I don’t assume it must be overcomplicated.

Jay Jaffe: For these questioning what’s for lunch, there’s nothing like the joy of a Reuben arriving half-hour late and beneath room temperature. GDI

Straw: What’s extra probably?  That Wright good points floor or that he falls off the poll?

Jay Jaffe: On condition that he obtained simply 6.2% final yr, the latter is way extra probably

Matt Kory: Hey Jay! Hope all is properly with you. What would you say the possibilities are of Dustin Pedroia stepping into the Corridor in some unspecified time in the future (i.e. together with varied committees)?

Jay Jaffe: Low. To this point we’ve got precisely one enlargement period (post-1960) participant with fewer than 2000 hits who’s been elected by both the writers or committee and has made it, and that’s Tony Oliva. There’s an rising competitors for the second spot between Dick Allen, Andruw Jones, Chase Utley, Buster Posey, and so forth, however falling quick nonetheless represents a major impediment to election, and for a man who’s additional off the WAR and JAWS benchmarks than these above (if they’re), it solely will get harder

Disgruntled: I believe it’s an enormous oversight by the union that neither the Padres nor the Orioles received a PPI decide for his or her second place ROY end. Ideas?

Jay Jaffe: Now that we’ve got examples, it’d turn into a bargaining level within the subsequent CBA negotiations however I doubt it’s a hill anybody will die on

Phil: Prior to now, the belief has been that the impediment to unanimity has been grumpy old-schoolers. Relating to Ichiro, are you involved about grumpy new-schoolers enjoying that function? I received so uninterested in a sure type of saber sort complaining that he didn’t stroll sufficient and ignoring what a pleasure he was to look at, and I’m a bit of nervous.

Jay Jaffe: Eh, I’m braced for a Griffey/Jeter near-miss already and would advocate hucking rotten eggs at any holdout no matter their age

Philly: lol at newest remark about Betts shifting to infield. Dodgers followers assume all the things is about them

Jay Jaffe: Nicely, once you’ve nabbed Ohtani and Yamamoto, gained a World Sequence, after which kicked the tires on Sasaki and Soto with out possession crying publicly about payroll, I believe they are often forgiven.

Phil: Strasburg hype was fully insane, from properly earlier than his debut to properly after. Folks neglect.

Jay Jaffe: Precisely.

Tyler: Hello Jay, I’m at present engaged on a undertaking only for enjoyable by attempting to place collectively all-time rosters for every franchise. I apologize if this isn’t the best discussion board to ask this. However for a part of my evaluation I believed it could be a good suggestion to do utilizing an analogous system to JAWS, solely adjusting the variety of years it’s divided by. With that being stated I’ve 2 questions: 1) If I wished to make the most of this in a weblog or podcast do you approve? and, 2) What’s the variety of years that you simply assume can be greatest to check participant efficiency for one franchise? Thanks for you time!

Jay Jaffe: Discover me on a social media platform and ask this, we will have a dialogue away from the chat.

Tim: What would it not take for the MLB to implement a wage flooring?
Wouldn’t it have to return with a smooth NBA-style cap for the homeowners to conform to it?

Jay Jaffe: For the union to conform to any type of flooring/cap system would nearly actually require reducing the arbitration and free company thresholds in order that youthful gamers receives a commission earlier, and extra consistent with their present manufacturing. Any proposal that doesn’t account for that most likely isn’t price studying a second sentence about.

Colton: Any ideas on the report that Boras and Bregman are searching for Machado cash? Appears like they’re going to run into the identical mistake the Boras guys had final yr by doing so

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, I raised my eyebrows at that one. Bregman ain’t Machado, which is to say that for as a lot as Manny has performed the villain, typically for legitimate causes (the slide into Pedroia, for one), and typically for bullshit ones, I don’t think about an proprietor or a clubhouse viewing Bregman as a transformative participant the way in which that the Padres did with Machado.

Bob: I’ve learn a number of article making point out of the methods through which the upcoming adjustments to Camden will profit the present Oriole roster. Are these adjustments a one-off or might modifying the park to go well with the roster ultimately turn into a part of groups preseason methods?

Jay Jaffe: I think the league would say “cool it” if this grew to become so routine that issues modified yearly.

MikeD: Do you assume CC’s election may assist Pettitte, forcing a re-eximination of latest beginning pitchers?

Jay Jaffe: Perhaps a bit of however not sufficient to maneuver the needle (no pun supposed) by the point he falls off the poll.

Jaded Nats Fan: Predictions on % vote Ichiro will get?

Jay Jaffe: 99.5% (two holdouts)

Soto-less Success: I believe any workforce that will get Roki Sasaki can argue that they had a profitable offseason on that alone.

Jay Jaffe: given how little he’ll value, yeah

McGraw45: I identified considered one of Steve Garvey’s marketing campaign poster to my spouse and he or she had no clue who she was… baseball fame simply ain’t what it was once

Jay Jaffe: you’re saying his baseball profession didn’t father stronger expectations for his Senate candidacy??

Florida: ….so how is enjoying outdoor in Florida in midsummer going to work?

Jay Jaffe: Outfielders can be allowed to hold umbrellas however after one is struck by lightning, the league will rescind the rule.

Datt Mamon: In order a Cubs fan, I need them to signal Soto and I do know they will afford it. However the one factor I don’t see mentioned is the influence it could have on the payroll total…once more, they will clearly afford to pay no matter, however how a lot can we blame a workforce for not desirous to comming $50-$60 million a yr on one man? Or ought to they simply do it regardless?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume a workforce might be gamers for Soto with out additionally budgeting for another vital contracts. If you happen to’re not already committing giant cash to a core of viable gamers of their prime, he ain’t contemplating your workforce

Doc: What’s your prediction for subsequent yr’s Committee election?  Does this yr’s poll point out one other debate over Don Mattingly and the steroid of us?  Any likelihood we get Keith, Cone, and Randolph, who actually deserve their day on a poll?

Jay Jaffe: what, being preoccupied by the 2 upcoming elections isn’t sufficient? I’ve no ideas on subsequent yr but besides to say we’re most likely going to see recycled candidacies and irritating omissions that can make us roll our eyes, as a result of each of these issues are fixed inside this course of.

Visitor: If a man like Wright falls off the poll as a result of it’s a crowded poll, it’s simply extra proof that the method is flawed and sucks.

Jay Jaffe: By no means. He’s going to fall off the poll as a result of he didn’t have a whole profession on account of accidents. That’s unhappy, however there are actually tons of of gamers in the identical boat and it’s not proof of a flawed course of.

Spend Uncle Stevie’s Cash: If you happen to have been David Stearns, what can be your Mets plan for the low season?

Jay Jaffe: Signal Soto, one of many frontline starters, deliver again Severino, and discover an improve for proper area. Get some insurance coverage for Baty at third base, shift Vientos to first.

Florida: …that’s not that a lot worse than the catwalk guidelines then

Jay Jaffe: LOL

mmddyyyy: Will enlargement groups additionally imply enlargement minor league groups?

Jay Jaffe: They’ll want associates, gained’t they?

Jay Jaffe: I’d count on there can be a reshuffling ripple that might take a number of years to unfold.

Jay Jaffe: OK of us, tons of excellent questions immediately and extra I can’t get to. Thanks for stopping by. undecided but about subsequent week because it’s simply earlier than Thanksgiving however we’ll do that once more soonish.