Three years in the past at this time, the outcomes of voting for 2021’s NL Cy Younger award had been introduced. The highest of the poll featured a considerably controversial battle between the elite charge manufacturing of then-Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and the quantity supplied by Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, with Burnes in the end taking residence the trophy. Ending just under them in balloting, nevertheless, was a pair of hurlers from the playoff rotation that took the Dodgers to the NLCS: right-handers Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler.
Flash ahead three years, and issues have gone fairly effectively for the first- and second-place finishers for that yr’s Cy Younger within the NL. Burnes enters this winter because the consensus high free agent pitcher obtainable and may very well be in line for a assure that reaches $200MM, whereas Wheeler opted in opposition to returning to the open market in favor of extending with the Phillies on a three-year, $126MM contract earlier this yr and now stands as a Cy Younger finalist as soon as once more alongside Chris Sale and Paul Skenes. Scherzer and Buehler are additionally headed into free company this winter, though neither figures to be in line for a nine-figure assure like these of Burnes and Wheeler.
As an alternative, each hurlers determine to enter the open market hoping to re-establish themselves as front-of-the-rotation abilities after dealing with adversity in recent times. Scherzer and Buehler landed the thirty third and thirty seventh spots on MLBTR’s annual Prime 50 MLB Free Brokers listing this winter, as we predicted one-year offers price $16MM and $15MM respectively for every participant. Whereas each hurlers boast ace-level pedigrees and will wind up signing related contracts this winter, the pair took completely different paths to get up to now over latest years and their distinctive challenges and belongings might inform the preferences of potential suitors.
Scherzer’s struggles in latest seasons have been nearly completely about well being slightly than efficiency. After delivering 11 totally dominant begins for the Dodgers down the stretch following a commerce from the Nationals at that summer season’s commerce deadline, the veteran right-hander’s season got here to an abrupt finish when he was pressured out of Sport 2 of the NLCS as a result of a lifeless arm after simply 4 1/3 innings of labor. Scherzer was unable to bounce-back in time to pitch once more for L.A. in that sequence and in the end departed the membership on the heels of their loss to the eventual World Champion Braves within the sequence.
After touchdown with the Mets on a three-year assure price $130MM, Scherzer turned in a dominant 2022 marketing campaign for New York however was restricted to only 23 begins as a result of indirect points. It was the fewest begins he had made in a full season throughout his profession, and his 145 1/3 innings of labor, whereas hardly out of the abnormal for a starter in recent times, was equally a full-season profession low. The correct-hander bounced again when it comes to quantity in 2023, making 27 begins for the Mets and Rangers all through the common season, however suffered on the efficiency entrance as he posted a considerably middling 3.77 ERA (112 ERA+) in 152 2/3 innings of labor. These outcomes improved considerably (3.20 ERA, 135 ERA+) down the stretch following his commerce to Texas, however very similar to 2021 Scherzer struggled with accidents late within the season and was hampered through the playoffs, in the end pitching simply 9 2/3 innings whole through the membership’s championship run.
Whereas Scherzer’s declining quantity and manufacturing had been considerably regarding, the long run Corridor of Famer was nonetheless clearly among the many high pitchers within the sport whilst he started to wrestle with damage. Over these aforementioned two seasons, Scherzer mixed for 50 begins the place he posted a wonderful 3.03 ERA (133 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP and a 29.3% strikeout charge in 298 innings of labor. That efficiency was good for six.7 fWAR, good for twenty third amongst all starters throughout these two seasons and sandwiched between the likes of Max Fried and Clayton Kershaw.
Sadly for the veteran, nevertheless, issues took a considerable flip for the more severe in 2024 as he suffered from the primary really injury-plagued season of his profession. After present process again surgical procedure final offseason, Scherzer’s was anticipated to overlook no less than the primary couple of months of motion. That timetable was additional delayed by nerve points, and by the point shoulder fatigue introduced his season to an early finish in September he had made simply 9 whole begins this season. These 9 begins noticed Scherzer pitch successfully, although not near the ace-level manufacturing he had flashed even two years prior. In 43 1/3 innings of labor this season, he pitched to a 3.95 ERA with a 4.18 FIP, placing out 22.6% of opponents confronted whereas strolling simply 5.6%.
Waiting for 2025, it’s definitely simple to think about Scherzer offering prime quality manufacturing every time he’s on the sector, given the league common outcomes he posted whereas combating by way of damage this yr and his pedigree as a three-time winner and six-time finalist of the Cy Younger award. With that being mentioned, the veteran will rejoice his forty first birthday in July of 2025, and his more and more detrimental damage woes in recent times go away loads of questions on simply what number of begins Scherzer may be counted on for in 2025, significantly within the postseason given the damage questions he confronted in 2023, 2021, and even 2019 with the Nationals.
Against this, Buehler comes with far fewer questions relating to his general well being. That’s to be anticipated from a participant who’s a decade and a day Scherzer’s junior. That’s to not say Buehler hasn’t had well being problems with his personal, in fact, as Buehler had practically two full calendar years of his profession worn out by Tommy John surgical procedure. Buehler returned to the mound for the Dodgers on Could 7 of this yr after having final pitched in a serious league recreation on June 10 of 2022. The righty has had few damage woes all through his profession other than his two profession elbow surgical procedures, with a bout of hip irritation this yr and a rib damage again in 2018 representing the one different important accidents of his huge league profession.
With that being mentioned, it’s price noting that the aforementioned Tommy John surgical procedure was really the second of Buehler’s pitching profession. It’s not unusual for gamers to wrestle after going underneath the knife a second time, although some pitchers resembling Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon have undergone the process twice and gone on to be efficient for years following their second surgical procedure. Buehler additionally averaged 95 mph on his fastball in 2024, an encouraging signal because it’s proper in step with his common previous to going underneath the knife.
That’s to not say Buehler lacks query marks, nevertheless. The correct-hander’s 2024 season was nothing wanting atrocious. He surrendered a 5.38 ERA and 5.54 FIP that had been each greater than 30% worse than league common by ERA- and FIP-, whereas his 18.6% strikeout charge and eight.1% stroll charge had been each the worst marks of his profession since he turned a full time participant in 2018. Whereas Buehler’s strong 15 innings of labor through the playoffs (3.60 ERA, 3.50 FIP) provide some purpose for optimism, significantly as he struck out a 3rd of his opponents within the NLCS and World Sequence, his atrocious common season outcomes are tough to disregard. Whereas Scherzer appears to be an affordable wager to supply when wholesome sufficient to take the mound, Buehler might want to enhance his general manufacturing considerably to be a good league common starter subsequent yr whilst he flashed his front-of-the-rotation upside late within the Dodgers’ championship run this postseason.
In case your staff was out there for a bounce-back starter this winter, which might you slightly signal? Would you worth Scherzer’s sturdy outcomes and prolonged monitor report of success when wholesome regardless of his age and damage questions, or would you like Buehler’s youth and upside regardless of his brutal ends in 2024?
