6 picks our playing knowledgeable loves

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, that includes picks from GOLF.com’s knowledgeable prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a daily visitor on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio community dedicated to sports activities and sport betting. You possibly can observe on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you’ll learn his picks beneath for the American Specific, which will get underway Thursday in La Quinta, Calif. Together with Kannon’s beneficial performs, you’ll additionally see knowledge from Chirp Golf, a cell app that options each Free-To-Play and Each day Fantasy golf contests the place you’ll be able to win money and prizes with every spherical and match.

After making its conventional two-week begin on the Hawaiian Islands, the 2025 PGA Tour season shifts again to the mainland for the start of the West Coast Swing. First cease: La Quinta, Calif., for the American Specific.

The American Specific is performed over three completely different golf programs: the Nicklaus Event Course at PGA West, La Quinta Nation Membership, and the Stadium Course at PGA West. Every participant will play one spherical at every of the three programs earlier than a 54-hole minimize is made. Sunday’s remaining spherical is held on the Stadium Course. Nick Dunlap is your defending champion, successful final 12 months as an beginner, the primary participant to take action on Tour in 33 years.

It’s actually the final word resort course problem. Pin positions will likely be very benign. There may be little to no tough bordering the fairways. Oddly sufficient, in the course of the desert, water is the first hazard as roughly 20 holes over the three programs have water in play. The golf programs are comparatively quick. The Stadium Course is only a tick over 7,200 yards, the Nicklaus Course is slightly below 7,200, and La Quinta CC is simply over 7,000 yards.

Excessive temperatures are anticipated to be within the low 70s and never one of many 4 days is asking for winds above 10 mph. Sure people, it seems to be like we’ve got one other birdie-fest on our fingers in Palm Springs. The successful rating proposition guess right here in Las Vegas on the Westgate SuperBook is Beneath/Over 259.5 (28.5 beneath Ppr).

So far as predictability, we go from two very predictive tournaments in Hawaii to a whole crapshoot right here in Southern California. ShotLink knowledge is barely obtainable on the Stadium Course, so we aren’t getting many stats for 50 p.c of the motion. 4 of the final six winners right here have been at triple-digit odds. Dunlap, final 12 months, was a 500-1 lengthy shot. I used to be fascinated by this the opposite day: Have I had an outright winner for each match on Tour over the course of my golf betting profession? I’m fairly certain it’s not each occasion however it’s shut, and I’ve actually had loads of shut calls, if not a winner, at sure venues. Right here on the American Specific, nevertheless, I don’t even recall many shut calls. It truly is a troublesome one to make any sense of — and for that cause, I like to recommend dumbing-down the chance this week. I’ve my outright winner picks, and that may possible be it. I’m not taking part in any end place markets and can in all probability additionally keep away from any head-to-head matchups.

That doesn’t imply I didn’t handicap the sphere although. Positive sufficient, the stats that I consider are most vital this week are Strokes Gained: Method, Birdies or Higher Gained, Par 5 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring, Good Drives Gained, and SG: Placing (Bermudagrass). Fairly fundamental stuff. Discover fairways, hit greens, make putts. 

In every of the three golf programs this week, I got here up with a handful that arrange equally: heavy on method, favor driving distance, and with nothing actually to talk of so far as accuracy or quick recreation across the greens. That led me to Corales Golf Membership, the place they play the Corales Puntacana Championship, Valhalla, the positioning of final 12 months’s PGA Championship, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Summerlin, and Silverado in Napa, the place they play the Procore Championship through the FedEx Fall.

Another notice. Fifteen of the final 17 winners of the American Specific have performed at the least one week in Hawaii main up. I’m positively a believer in having at the least just a few rounds of aggressive motion beneath one’s belt aiding in success right here, versus this being a participant’s first begin of the season.

Kurt Kitayama (30-1) 

The UNLV Insurgent is unquestionably accustomed to desert-style golf and he’s recorded top-10 finishes at each TPC Scottsdale and TPC Summerlin. He performed final week on the Sony Open, taking pictures three rounds within the 60s and ending thirty seventh. During the last 24 rounds, Kitayama is sixth on this subject for SG: Method and he ranks third for SG: Par 5s. He’s lengthy off the tee and hits loads of greens in regulation. It can come right down to the putter, because it typically does in a birdie-fest, and Kitayama was stable with the flatstick final week, gaining practically a stroke on the sphere at Waialae Nation Membership.

Tom Kim (31-1)

It’s fascinating that Kim was a extremely popular selection final week on the Sony Open, as one of many pre-tournament favorites, however that isn’t the case this week and his worth has drifted all the way in which into the 30s. That appears like excellent worth to me. It is a man who completed sixth right here two years in the past and was a back-to-back winner on the Shriners Kids’s Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. He additionally has a top-20 end at TPC Scottsdale and was twenty sixth final 12 months on the PGA Championship at Valhalla. He ranks one higher than Kitayama at fifth on this subject on method over the past 24 rounds. Additionally like Kitayama, he’ll must discover a scorching putter if he’s going to make a run this week.

Mac Meissner (80-1)

Now we get into the lengthy photographs as a result of as I acknowledged earlier, we are likely to get random outcomes at this match and have a tendency to see big-priced guys come out on prime. Meissner was a participant I practically landed on final week and he performed nicely, ending twenty first on the Sony. Evidently, I’m not alone in taking discover as I’ve seen a few others on him this week within the desert. Meissner goes even one higher than Tom Kim, rating fourth on this subject for SG: Method over the past 24 rounds, and was second within the subject with the irons final week. He’s glorious with the wedges, is each lengthy and straight off the tee, and is a good putter. That is solely Meissner’s second full season on Tour. He missed the minimize right here final 12 months however I do like the truth that he’s performed this occasion earlier than, accustomed to each the golf programs and the pro-am format.

Jhonattan Vegas (90-1)

The massive Venezuelan has been round on Tour for nicely over a decade now and we noticed him win for the fourth time in his profession final summer time on the 3M Open. In reality, his first-ever Tour win was proper right here in La Quinta when it was identified on the Bob Hope Desert Basic in 2011. Since then, he’s completed as excessive as eleventh right here on the American Specific. He has prime 10s at each Silverado and Scottsdale, and has been as excessive as fourth at Corales Puntacana. He started 2025 on the Sentry in Kapalua and completed fourth. Off the tee, driving it lengthy and straight has all the time been the energy of Vegas’ recreation. During the last 24 rounds, he additionally ranks prime 10 on this subject on the par 5s and the par 4s. We’ll say it once more: If he can putt this week, we should always have a contender.

Henrik Norlander (150-1)

Like Kitayama, Norlander completed thirty seventh on the Sony final week and shot three rounds within the 60s. He’s lethal correct off the tee and ranked eleventh on Tour for SG: Method final season. He’s very stable in all of the stats this week apart from guess what? Yeah, he’s had struggles on the inexperienced, however he has completed as excessive as twelfth right here on the American Specific earlier than and likewise has top-25 finishes to his credit score at each Corales and TPC Scottsdale.  

Matti Schmid (190-1)

We lastly landed on a putter. Schmid can bang it off the tee, makes a bunch of birdies, and ranked forty sixth on Tour final 12 months for SG: Placing. He tied for sixth together with Tom Kim right here on the American Specific in 2023. He was additionally third this previous October at TPC Summerlin and was 11 at Corales again in April. He has lots of expertise and has been displaying some indicators of what he can do with it. In a watered down subject and birdie-fest, I really feel like 190-1 is simply too excessive of a worth. 

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