Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/9/25

Dan Szymborski: Let’s begin the insanity. I imply chat.

Egg Man: New group at present ? Nonetheless 10 to go.

Dan Szymborski: Blue Jays tomorrow. I used to be travelling again by way of snow after which needed to dig out my driveway and my mother’s driveway. Measured 9 inches on my again garden.

David Stearns: Mets signal Alonso, Winker, Scott and Maton are they the nl east favorites?

Dan Szymborski: I believe it’d be shut

Dan Szymborski: However on the no facet

wheelhouse: what’s your learn on ke’bryan hayes at this level? would the pirates transfer him? is there nonetheless the upside there that groups would have an interest?

Dan Szymborski: Assuming the again issues don’t proceed to be a difficulty — not a given — I believe he’ll be an averageish 3B, above-average defensively + middling offense

Dan Szymborski: I’ve at all times preferred Hayes as a participant, however folks received WAY too enthusiastic about his loopy month as a rookie

Barfs: of the 2 SDP FA’s (Kim, Profar), who ought to the Braves signal?

Dan Szymborski: Whereas these solutions change relying on worth, I’d reasonably have Kim

Frosty: My apologies if you happen to’ve already shared this, however do you could have 2025 projections for Sasaki?

Dan Szymborski: Hoarding that for when he indicators!

Ben VV: What are some prime gamers to maintain eye on throughout spring that may very well be breakout gamers.

Dan Szymborski: Equally, I do items on this within the spring!

Pope Formosus: What are ZiPs 1st and 99th percentile wins totals for the White Sox this yr?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do the FULL suite till we get nearer to the season. I assure they’ll each be brutal although

Ben VV: What is going to Brewers do at 3B this yr?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they’ll simply slap in no matter unsigned veteran in three weeks will take an affordable one yr deal

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, a Yoan Moncada pillow deal?

Dan Szymborski: (I’ve no particular data they’ve even talked)

Tacoby Bellsbury: What remaining free agent, non-Roki Sasaki division, do you suppose would be the greatest discount for his new group subsequent season?

Dan Szymborski: Perhaps Pivetta? Flaherty?

Slew: My favourite group hasn’t had its ZiPS revealed but. Why do you hate them? [Insert various pissing and moaning]

Dan Szymborski: It’s one thing you probably did. Replicate in your sins and repent or your group can be even later subsequent yr.

John: Do you suppose Alonso will get greater than $100 million?

Dan Szymborski: No, I believe he will get a Bellinger/Chapman-like deal from final winter

Curious fan: Kumar rocker has a reasonably nifty steamer projection for this upcoming season. Do you suppose he makes the rotation on opening day? What are your expectations for him this season?

Dan Szymborski: I believe Rangers can be cautious, however he’ll get into the rotation sooner or later

Harry: Which group do you suppose will exceed their ZIPS projections essentially the most, and which group is almost definitely to fall in need of theirs?

Dan Szymborski: Ask me in March!

Visitor: Jose Ramirez had one other improbable yr final yr, however is definitely exhibiting some indicators of growing old. Typically talking, what are your expectations for him within the 4 years remaining on his contract?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be effective; he’s received a protracted strategy to fall

Dan Szymborski: There’s a distinction between me being in worse form subsequent yr and The Rock being in worse form subsequent yr

Idiotic Failson: Did the Yankees ‘substitute’ the worth of Juan Soto in combination? And – am I right in assuming that due to the LT a man like Bregman at 110% of his contract truly doesn’t present as a lot worth as a a lot decrease finish signing like Polanco?

Dan Szymborski: Changing in combination is at all times a dangerous factor

Dan Szymborski: err

Dan Szymborski: a messy factor

Dan Szymborski: As a result of whereas there’s a draw back of not placing all of your eggs in a single basket, spreading out a bunch of wins throughout a number of positions has a lot decrease upside

Dan Szymborski: and I’m undecided the Yankees had been weak sufficient in these spots for it to be essentially the most environment friendly issues to do

Dan Szymborski: Sooner or later, it’s higher to have one 2025 Toyota Camry than three 2008 Toyota Camrys.

Dan Szymborski:

Harry: Who’s a darkish horse MVP candidate that no person’s actually excessive on?

Dan Szymborski: Kinda laborious to have a real darkish horse MVP candidate; anybody with a REAL probability folks will not less than like

Dan Szymborski: Although I WILL notice that of the 20ish groups I’ve accomplished to date, James Wooden ranks fortieth amongst place gamers in ninety fifth percentile WAR

Dan Szymborski: If ou need to go a little bit farther on the market, Ezequiel Tovar

Lew Ford, Mustang: I’m intrigued by the concept of groups just like the Twins who’re satisfactory in all places and have depth however lack an enormous star. How does this get factored into ZIPS vis a vis variance? Looks like their outcomes can be extra evenly distributed however that the highs are much less excessive? Does that sound correct?

Dan Szymborski: That sort of factor SHOULD be captured the best way I venture roster composition

Nicole: What’s the worst group you could possibly make a favourite to make the playoffs by solely signing present free brokers?

Dan Szymborski: Royals?

John B: In your zWAR estimates it’s frequent to see AAA pitchers who would generate ~2 Warfare or extra in the event that they performed a full season.  However many of those pitchers don’t do effectively when given the possibility.  ZWAR doesn’t appear to have the ability to precisely predict which guys will truly break by way of

Dan Szymborski: What does a full season imply in 2025? The percentile projections calibrate effectively – the issue is accuracy way over bias

Snuffy Stirnweiss: Within the Juan Soto ZiPS projection article on Dec 8, you talked about that ZiPS moved to utilizing a “stepwise operate”. Are you able to broaden on why that change was made in addition to how which may have an effect on sure projections?

Dan Szymborski: That’s for salaries

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS tasks the primary win as being price rather a lot lower than subsequent wins

Dan Szymborski: Although you can also make it linear once more by drastically altering the place substitute stage is, as Tango has famous

Jeff in Jersey: I used to be heartened by the ZIPS forecast for the Mets, and naturally it’s nonetheless superb to have Juan Soto in your group. However I simply can’t really feel nice about this offseason with out including some established relievers and getting certainty on the infield corners (is Vientos actually a positive factor, sufficient to present him 1st, and are we sure Baty/Mauricio can deal with third?). Inform me if I’m a spoiled fan or not.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose you’re spoiled, it’ snot just like the Mets venture to win 96 video games on common or something

Snuffy Stirnweiss: As a observe up, delighted to see that you’ve introduced again the risk to karate chop anybody responsible of including up WAR totals to supply a projected group WAR/report. I learn that sentence from you in an article a few decade in the past, glad to see I wasn’t the one one who remembered it.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means eliminated that line as a result of I need to ethically disclose that gratuitous violence is a risk

War2d2: Hey Dan, Completely happy New Yr! I’m at all times reticent to consider signing relievers to something longer than a 1-year deal. That stated, do you suppose no matter 3-5 yr factor Tanner Scott finally winds up with can be a boondoggle? Or do you suppose the signer will get extra worth out of the lifetime of the contract than, say, signing Kenley Jansen for one yr this yr and changing him with the same reliever yearly for the following 3-5 years? Outline “worth” nevertheless you need, bulk WAR or $$/WAR, no matter.

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I don’t suppose Scott goes to get a CRAZY deal. However possibly I’m incorrect

Harry: The Boston Pink Sox made some splashes to their pitching employees, have quite a few ROTY candidates, and have a strong lineup (with doubtlessly extra to be added). What’s Boston’s ceiling/ground for 2025 in your eyes (report clever)?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they’re an actual second tier playoff contender, in all probability ought to complete higher than their .500 treading outcomes

Dan Szymborski: I’d be shocked in the event that they crushed out a 100-win season although

Sonny: I assumed for positive Cincy could be an ideal touchdown spot for a post-hype younger(ish) hitter so as to add upside to their lineup. I had Tork or Vaughn in thoughts as higher matches than Lux, however is that acquisition considerably encouraging or simply cheaper than the 2 nook bats talked about?

Dan Szymborski: It’s laborious to say with possession. I like Lux, however Santander could be an ideal slot in Cincy, although they shoudln’t be mutually unique additions

comish4lif: When the Dodgers cleared a spot on the 40 man by buying and selling Lux, might they (can they) resolve the Dalton Speeding DFA by pulling him again?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Dan Szymborski: I do know they DFA’ed Cartaya

Dan Szymborski: however they traded him to Twins throughout this chat

Insert Witty Identify Right here: I measured 9 inches in your mothers again garden.

Nicole: My brother insisted that the Mets are the third greatest group of their division. Why is he incorrect?

Dan Szymborski: He may not be, however it’s not OBVIOUS

Dan Szymborski: Like Mac is perhaps the third-best male actor on It’s All the time Sunny, however that’s nonetheless actually good

Dan Szymborski: Or not less than the third-best male character?

Dan Szymborski: Or actually, possibly fourth?

SPARP: How has the best way you venture relievers turning into starters advanced with it occurring extra incessantly in 2024?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve extra information within the system!

BC26: What Yankees 3B possibility does ZiPS hate the least?

Dan Szymborski: I suppose I can’t simply say Bregman?

Dan Szymborski: Then Cabrera I believe

Barry M.: I believe Omar Vizquel needs to be a corridor of famer (ignoring the allegations.) He’s a greater hitter than Ozzie Smith which is his most comparable participant. He has 2800+ profession hits and over 10 gold gloves.

Dan Szymborski: Meh. First, I don’t suppose he’s a greater hitter than Ozzie Smith

Dan Szymborski: Second, he wasn’t an completely dominating defensive participant after Seattle

Dan Szymborski: A few of these gold gloves had been rep

Dan Szymborski: By outdated ZR, which we now we have from 1987, Ozzie *averaged* +13 runs at brief over the past decade of his profession

Dan Szymborski: And Sherri Nichols DR work had him on the identical

Dan Szymborski: which makes the very aggressive Whole Zone numbers when he was youthful not appear to be a stretch

Dan Szymborski: Whereas 2877 hits sounds nice, he’s mainly a 2500 hit hitter who caught round as a nasty participant for an additional 300 hits

Dan Szymborski: And sure, 90 wrC+ vs. 83 and greater than 200 extra internet stolen bases in a profession are important edges

Your Identify: Are the yankees higher this yr than final yr? Or is dropping Soto an excessive amount of to beat

Dan Szymborski: In all probability not higher.

Any individual: Please give your cats some pets for us. They’re good kitties.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not giving Justinian any pets, he pushed the tin of blood orange shortbread cookies off the counter and several other broke

Yeah Effectively Hiura Towel: Has anybody ever had a greater ZIPS projection than Soto this low season?

Dan Szymborski: Effectively, long run positive! Although not a much bigger contract projection

Dan Szymborski: However I don’t venture everybody hitting free company yearly

Dan Szymborski: Trout had a greater projection at identical age

Anon21: Please validate my frustration on the Braves for being very inactive in buying expertise to date this offseason. I hate that entrance workplaces apart from possibly the Dodgers’ or Mets’ appear to view their aim as constructing a group that may win 92 video games!!

Dan Szymborski: It’s the playoff system. Hate the sport

RAH: What to anticipate with Marcus Semien? Is he due a rebound in 2025, or does age coloration 2024 efficiency extra predictive shifting ahead? I perceive that many underlying numbers weren’t that completely different from 2023 to 2024, however his profile additionally looks like it walks a good rope. Will he begin falling off like Arenado? (To counter that, Semien has been a lot more healthy)

Dan Szymborski: SOME rebound, however time is a drag

Ben: Hey Dan, thanks for all you do. What does ZiPS suppose Justin Verlander has left for 2025? What contract would ZiPS have recommended?

Visitor: What does Tyler O’Neill’s sim appear to be with the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I’ve zips batting open first

Dan Szymborski: oh my, ZiPS likes O’Neill much more than Steamer

Dan Szymborski: I hadn’t actually checked out him particularly prior to now

Dan Szymborski: 250/333/481, 131 OPS+, 2.6 WAR in like 430 PA

Dan Szymborski: possibly THAT is one of the best deal of the winter? lol

John B: Would like to see FG create a baseball commerce values like mannequin.  This sort of content material drives plenty of readership imo

Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely one thing I’ve considered doing.

Dan Szymborski: The factor I’ve been at present engaged on, which you could have observed throughout the playoffs, is a reside pitcher vs. batter projection reside instrument

Idiotic Failson: You already revealed my group’s ZIPS. Now I’ve nothing to sit up for. Why do you hate me?

Dan Szymborski: Your failings, additionally.

Dan Szymborski: However don’t really feel unhealthy, I’m the loser child too

Dan Szymborski: It was my sister for a very long time, however she received her graduate levels and helps terminally unwell oncology sufferers whereas elevating a five-year-old and a 3 year-old, whereas *I* get mad at baseball issues and do math to sports activities

Talfred: Do you count on Arraez’s offensive profile to develop into extra well-rounded, or is he eternally going to be a one-trick pony?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’s what he’s

TBone: what occurs if the MLB simply useless ball the ball in april, after which all these numbers and your laborious work can be off?

Lowetide: Additionally, Toyota’s final a very long time.

Dan Szymborski: That’s what OPS+/wRC+ are for!

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, however if you happen to simply want a working automobile, one new one is healthier than three similar outdated ones

War2d2: I believe the hazard you wind up with in going the “combination” route is what the Giants handled the final four-ish years or so—you’re adequate at a number of positions, and nice at precisely none of them. Granted, these Giants groups had been in all probability one “Arson” Decide away from the playoffs, and the Yankees do have that over them…

Capt. Prepare dinner: For as a lot as ZiPS likes the Cubs, I’m not likely seeing massive Dansby Swanson rebound numbers in there. What is probably going in retailer for his 2025?

Dan Szymborski: I believe you’re being very grasping

Dan Szymborski: He simply had a 4.3 WAR season

mmddyyyy: Are there any good sources to determine how a participant pronounces their identify?

Dan Szymborski: Varied media guides float round, plus BR

April: Since we’re asking questions you’re deferring for a number of months, how a lot cash will that you must pay or get again from the IRS in your taxes?

Dan Szymborski: I usually owe a bit

Dan Szymborski: I by no means have my wage withholding configured effectively sufficient to cowl non-salaried compensation, and am often off by a number of hundred or so

Dan Szymborski: however not sufficient that I’ve to file quarterly

Josh: Together with his positional uncertainty, how does Lux match into your Reds ZIPS projection?

Dan Szymborski: I truly suppose him or McLain can be 3b

JC: Nolan Ryan pitched 332 innings of sub 3 ERA and FIP in 1974 however is barely credited with 6.3 WAR. What offers?

Dan Szymborski: the league had a 3.63 FIP in 1974

Mike M.: When does ZipsGPT come out? I’ve plenty of questions I’d prefer to ask it. About Sasaki projections, love, and regrets.

I’m the Apple: Dan, no catcher made the highest 20 in your projected profession WAR checklist. Which catcher got here the closest?

Dan Szymborski: Adley Rutschman then William Contreras

Dan Szymborski: Or Wiliam Contreras since his dad and mom nonetheless owe the universe an l

Cartaya: What occurred to Diego Cartaya to make him fall to date?

Dan Szymborski: When you map that out, it’s known as Cartayography

Dan Szymborski: His bat scertainly turned rather a lot much less thrilling

Koztradamus: What % chance do you give S. Marte to have one other superb/nice season this yr?  (I would commerce for him.). Hopefully no energy outage like years in the past.

Dan Szymborski: Fairly low. Dude’s 36

Ben: These Vizquel allegations are fairly horrible and shouldn’t be ignored. That stuff from when he was a coach alone ought to hold him out. Particularly with the precedent of steroid customers not getting in based mostly on the “character clause.” (Additionally I agree that he simply wasn’t adequate.)

Dan Szymborski: The allegations are horrific after all

Dan Szymborski: However I strongly really feel that the intent was *baseball* character, not societal character. If I assumed Vizquel had been a greater participant, I’d put an industrial power clothespin on my nostril and vote for him. I might have voted for Schilling as effectively.

Dan Szymborski: No shade by any means solid on those that really feel otherwise with their private line.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a No on Vizquel subsequent yr, and I’m a there’s no suspended PED consumer on the poll who’s borderline for me

JC: What MLB participant is Butters in South Park?

JC: I simply need to speak about South Park, Dan

Dan Szymborski: wait, did I make a reference someplace?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t say who’s Butter although

Phil: As somebody who noticed Smith play in individual at Shea Stadium fairly a number of instances, “corresponding to Smith” is simply not a factor. BR’s 42 dWAR doesn’t take me aback in any respect.

War2d2: I used to be at all times an Ozzie Smith denier, 100% as a result of I’m a Cubs fan. However then about 10 years in the past a good friend gifted me a field set of well-known Cubs video games DVDs, and I watched the “Ryne Sandberg Sport” in its entirety. There have been solely two gamers on the sector that day that appeared like trendy gamers, that appeared like they’d make it in at present’s recreation: Sandberg and Ozzie. He made not less than three throwaway performs that possibly 4 or 5 SS at present would make, and he made it look simple. I doubt he’d hit sufficient towards trendy pitching, however the glove was positively for actual.

Ben: Jeez, Ozzie Smith is 70 years outdated Father time: nonetheless undefeated.

Visitor: Re: Pet for Justinian – I learn that as you had been going to get a canine or cat for Justinian to have as their very own pet in the identical means Justinian is your pet.

comish4lif: My Cartaya query was extra of a course of query – and I didn’t know that the Twins would purchase Cartaya after I despatched the query – however can groups pull again a participant from DFA limbo in the event that they clear a spot on the 40 man?

Dan Szymborski: Except I’m forgetting one thing, no

my identify: do you pronounce it “information” or “information”?

Dan Szymborski: information

JC: Let’s do the mathematics on this: if I drive one 08 Toyota for years till there’s a difficulty then transfer on to a different after which one other, couldn’t that outlast a 25 Toyota?

Dan Szymborski: YOu have to think about storage

Dan Szymborski: Are you REALLY going to maintain a 3rd pristine used 17 year-old automobile to make use of in 20 years?

Dan Szymborski: I imply, it’s not an NSX or one thing

JC: Re Toyota: Storage measurement = 40 man roster

JC: The info “is” or the date “are”?

Dan Szymborski: information are, however I slip up generally

Dan Szymborski: on that notice, I’ve to go and end my Jays ZiPS submit

JC: Unsuitable. It’s one information “set” so it’s information “is”

Pat: The brand new automobile additionally in all probability has a bunch of cooler features- bluetooth, Apple/Android automobile, heated/cooled seats, heated steering wheel (greatest invention ever!), massive touchscreen, and many others. Additionally, assuredly a lot safer with all new security options