The Celtics and Thunder meet on Sunday in essentially the most intriguing common season sport in latest reminiscence. It’s looks like essentially the most inevitable Finals preview because the Cavaliers-Warriors years and each Jayson Tatum and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have essentially the most respectable paths to the MVP award. Past that, Oklahoma Metropolis leads Boston by 3.5 within the standings and constructed arguably the one opposing drive within the NBA that may defeat the Celtics at full energy 4 occasions.
Seeds of the Thunder’s dominance confirmed as early as 2023, after they poured 150 factors on Boston at house in a yr the place they completed beneath .500. Chet Holmgren redshirted that season earlier than rising as one of many league’s finest two-way bigs as a rookie in Victor Wembanyama’s shadow. He’s a needed Kristaps Porziņģis counter, one of many few that exist. Jalen Williams provides them near the second punch Jaylen Brown offers Boston. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum have battled atop the league hierarchy for the 2nd-Fifth spots alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Dončić for the previous three years.
Then there’s Mark Daigneault, who’s change into each bit the defensive mastermind that Joe Mazzulla grew to become on offense over the previous three years. Isaiah Hartenstein joined them this offseason, solidifying their largest weak spot on the boards and permitting them to play their patented small ball and have the double-big seems to counter when an opponent like Boston turns to Al Horford on the 4. Lu Dort can take guards and forwards out of the sport. You would go on and on.
They’ve additionally gained 14 straight, including to the timeliness of their assembly. Although Alex Caruso, one other stellar discover over the summer season a la Jrue Vacation one yr in the past, and Holmgren will miss the sport, as Brown doubtlessly will, there’s sufficient right here to evaluate what a collection might appear like. The Celtics’ three-point quantity edge stays a staggering benefit over the remainder of the league, Thunder included, even with Oklahoma Metropolis matching their effectivity final yr. The Thunder boast the velocity, layers of playmaking and physicality that the Hawks, Grizzlies, Pacers and others have utilized to shake Boston in spots to start this season. Boston has appeared human early on this yr, one other alternative for the Thunder.
It’s like Oklahoma Metropolis cloned the Celtics’ blueprint — they usually have extra coming. First spherical level guard Nikola Topić is rehabbing his ACL tear. The Sixers may owe them a primary from the Al Horford commerce to go together with as many as three further first-rounders this summer season. Within the following three years, they might personal 9 firsts and 15 seconds. An absolute necessity to surviving the league’s new cap provisions that’ll stress the Celtics’ potential to keep up their core beginning in 2025-26. That provides to the stress for Boston to run it again whereas they’ve the possibility.
Each groups must get by difficult paths to make their collision course pan out. The Celtics may sort out the east as the 2, and even three seed. The Thunder’s path could be grueling from spherical one regardless of rising its benefit because the west’s high seed. Dallas dealt with them final postseason and will push them to the brink once more in the event that they get wholesome. Denver might have the most effective participant within the collection. The cumulative impact of taking part in three robust collection undoubtedly made the Mavs simpler to deal with for Boston within the Finals.
However ought to they play for the title, it’ll come all the way down to Mazzulla’s favourite stats — capturing, rebounding, free throws and turnovers. The Thunder have regressed to 34.9% from three thus far and rank twenty fifth in offensive rebounding, draw virtually even in free throw makes an attempt every night time and each groups lead the league at limiting turnovers at just under a 12% charge. Oklahoma Metropolis’s protection is healthier by virtually seven factors per 100 possessions. Boston owns a 5.4 factors per 100 edge on offense. Their adjusted web rankings each work out to +9.3 due to their respective dominance at both finish.
It’s a distinction of types at both finish too. The Thunder take about 12 fewer threes per sport than the Celtics and thrive within the mid-range (45.6%), the place solely the Nets and Suns shoot higher. Their protection is extra forceful than Boston’s, forcing a jarring 18.9 turnovers per sport, a class the Celtics solely rank twenty fifth in. Their wings fly round all over the place, and like Derrick White and Vacation, block photographs too.
Boston performs a extra analytical model of protection, they usually’ll certainly direct photographs to the Thunder’s weaker shooters. There aren’t many: Dort knocks down 40% at an honest quantity, Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander each convert above 35%, as do Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe. Then it’s a must to preserve Hartenstein off the glass. This might be a sport the place Porzingis drops whereas Horford, Vacation and Tatum face off with Oklahoma Metropolis’s bodily heart. If they will’t preserve the Thunder out of transition, none of that issues.
The Thunder can have points too. How do they bridge the mathematics hole? Can they be aggressive on protection when the ball strikes so effortlessly? What if Boston’s large wings hinder Gilgeous-Alexander’s creation skills like Milwaukee’s did within the Cup Ultimate? They’ve restricted opponent three-point effectivity higher than any protection (33.1%). They haven’t seen the Celtics. With out Gilgeous-Alexander final spring, they allowed 42.5% capturing to Boston from deep and misplaced by 35. With him, they performed the Celtics inside single-digits within the three video games prior.
It’s an interesting matchup, and whereas it in all probability gained’t mirror what we watch in June, it’s the primary time because the two Nuggets video games final yr that the Celtics see an opponent that would show an existential menace to Boston’s championship hopes that usually really feel bulletproof. If they’ve one weak spot, it’s fast, versatile and athletic opponents. The Thunder have that, measurement and expertise on par with theirs. The Celtics have the trophy. We watched a couple of months of Wizards, Pistons, Hornets and Raptors matchups to get right here.
Sport on.
