For the reason that final time Josh Bell suited up for the Nationals on August 1, 2022, he has performed for 4 totally different groups. The Nationals dealt him to the Padres alongside Juan Soto on the 2022 commerce deadline. Then he turned a free agent and signed a two-year, $33 million cope with the Guardians, just for Cleveland to flip him to the Marlins the next summer season. He swam with the Fish for slightly below a 12 months earlier than it was Miami’s flip to forged him off on the deadline in 2024. Lastly, after ending out this previous season with the Diamondbacks, Bell is returning to Washington on a one-year, $6 million contract. That closes the circle on a two-and-a-half-year expedition that took him from the East Coast to the West Coast to the Midwest to the wetlands to the desert and again to the nation’s capital. In accordance with Google Maps, it might take you simply over 166 days to stroll that journey. Bell, not precisely recognized for his footspeed, did it in 881.
With the Gold Glover Nathaniel Lowe prone to see many of the enjoying time at first base, Bell ought to slot in as Washington’s on a regular basis designated hitter. Bell has primarily performed first all through his profession, however his protection has all the time been missing, even by the requirements of the place. He has by no means completed a season with a optimistic DRS, and solely as soon as has he completed with a optimistic OAA or FRV. In 2024, Bell ranked final amongst all first basemen in DRS and second to final in OAA and FRV, regardless of enjoying simply 98 video games on the place. So long as Lowe stays wholesome, which he’s largely managed to do all through his profession, the Nationals received’t want to fret about Bell’s glove at first. In the meantime, Bell received’t want to fret in regards to the harsh positional adjustment for designated hitters dragging down his general numbers. A full-time DH who performs all 162 video games would end with -17.5 Def; Bell completed with -17.8 Def in 2024. So long as he sticks at DH, issues can’t get any worse.
After all, that additionally means Bell’s defensive worth received’t get any higher. If he’s going to enhance upon a replacement-level (-0.1 WAR) 2024 season, he’ll must do it together with his offense. Extra particularly, he’ll must do it together with his bat. Over the previous 4 years, Bell has been the least productive baserunner within the sport, with -17.6 BsR. His finest baserunning season in that span was 2021, when he completed with -3.9 BsR, eighth-worst within the majors. To place that in context, -3.9 BsR is so low that Steamer doesn’t undertaking anybody to complete with -3.9 BsR in 2025. Heck, Steamer doesn’t have anybody else ending under -2.9, whereas Bell is projected for -2.3. Bell’s baseline is such an aberration that Steamer refuses to simply accept it as his (or anybody’s) Fiftieth-percentile end result.
Regardless of his shortcomings within the discipline and on the bases, Bell can nonetheless be a helpful participant so long as he’s hitting – simply take a look at his Silver Slugger-winning season in 2022. Nonetheless, he’s been little greater than a league-average bat for the previous two years. Throughout 1,220 plate appearances from 2023-24, Bell has slashed .248/.322/.412 with a 102 wRC+ (his bat did enhance with the D-backs after the deadline, to the tune of a 123 wRC+ in 162 PA). All three of his triple-slash figures are inside 2% of the league common in that point. His 9.3% stroll fee and 20.8% strikeout fee are nonetheless good, however in terms of balls in play, he’s hit almost half of them on the bottom (49% groundball fee). That’s approach too many grounders for such a sluggish runner. What’s extra, Bell hasn’t compensated for these groundballs by hitting the ball arduous sufficient when he places it within the air. His adjusted exit velocity on balls within the air has solely been 0.6 mph quicker than common the final two years.
To make issues worse, Bell’s high quality of contact metrics dropped steeply in 2024. In 2023, his .403 xwOBAcon (in comparison with a .370 wOBAcon) recommended he may need been the sufferer of some unhealthy luck on balls in play. In contrast, his .348 xwOBAcon in 2024 was worse than his .357 wOBAcon. Furthermore, it was considerably under league common and simply the bottom xwOBAcon of Bell’s profession. Merely put, that’s not a fantastic signal for a hitter in his 30s who hasn’t had actually elite exit velocities in a number of years.
For the Nationals, nevertheless, even one other replacement-level season from Bell would signify a large enchancment over the 70 wRC+ and -2.2 WAR they received from their designated hitters in 2024. Of their 11 gamers who took greater than 10 PA at DH, just one, Jesse Winker, had a wRC+ above league common. And even then, his 103 wRC+ was nonetheless 5% worse than the league common for a DH:
Nationals Designated Hitters in 2024
Min. 10 PA
All the identical, the Nationals are absolutely hoping Bell appears extra like he did the final time he was of their lineup than the participant he’s been ever since. In 247 video games with Washington from 2021-22, Bell crushed 41 dwelling runs, drew 114 walks to simply 162 strikeouts, and produced a 130 wRC+. His 5.0 WAR was second on the crew solely to Soto’s 9.3. Whether or not you take a look at RBI or wRAA, Bell was one of many high 30 run producers in baseball.
It’s not as if that success got here out of nowhere, both. Bell was an above-average hitter throughout his days with the Pirates, too. In 5 seasons between 2016-20, he hit 86 dwelling runs in 552 video games, slashing .261/.349/.466 with a 113 wRC+. He was by no means probably the most constant producer, however at his finest, he punished opposing pitchers with a harmful mixture of energy and plate self-discipline. In his All-Star 2019 season, he hit 37 dwelling runs and drew walks at a 12.1% tempo. His 135 wRC+ put him among the many high 10 certified NL batters.
The 2025 season will probably be Bell’s age-32 marketing campaign. He received’t flip 33 till August. It’s been a short while since we noticed one of the best model of his bat over a protracted interval, however it’s not unreasonable to suppose he nonetheless has the upside to be a middle-of-the-order hitter for a crew just like the Nationals. If not, his flooring continues to be that of a sturdy, league-average bat. The one season of his profession wherein he completed with a below-average wRC+ was the shortened 2020 marketing campaign. He’s additionally one among simply 12 gamers who’ve certified for the batting title in every of the previous eight years. Bell has been on the IL simply twice in his profession; he missed 11 days with an indirect pressure in 2018 and 6 days because of the COVID protocols in 2021. There is no such thing as a purpose to suppose he can’t keep wholesome and supply league-average offense all through the 2025 season. And if he can, he’ll be a two-win enchancment over the designated hitters the Nationals ran out in 2024.
On high of that, the Nationals didn’t simply signal Bell for his abilities on the sector. On the Winter Conferences, supervisor Dave Martinez stated he needed to convey “a veteran presence” to the roster to assist with “chemistry and tradition” within the clubhouse. Positive, that’s a platitude we’ve all heard numerous instances, however it is smart for this crew. Bell is the one participant in Washington’s projected beginning lineup who will probably be in his 30s as of Opening Day. He’s one among solely 5 gamers on the 40-man roster with postseason expertise. Extra particularly, he has a glowing popularity across the league as a fantastic clubhouse man, and that’s all of the extra significant contemplating what number of clubhouses he’s been part of. The final time Bell was in D.C., Martinez and POBO Mike Rizzo made clear how extremely they valued his intangible qualities. Martinez described him as “an unbelievable human being.” Rizzo known as him “one of many nice make-up guys that we’ve ever introduced in right here.”
From an outdoor perspective, I can’t communicate to how a lot further worth (if any) Bell would possibly contribute together with his work ethic, management, or affability. What I can say with confidence is that the Nationals clearly worth these qualities, and that absolutely performed a job of their determination to supply him a contract. A $6 million wage would possibly look like a slight overpay for a participant who has been near substitute stage during the last two years. Maybe it’s. However it’s value maintaining in thoughts that Bell’s wage displays extra than simply what the Nationals suppose he can present on the sector.
The Nationals have gotten higher this winter. Lowe has been their solely addition who moved the needle in any important approach, however Michael Soroka raises their ceiling, and Bell raises their flooring. That stated, none of those transactions counsel a crew that’s diving into the deep finish. Earlier within the offseason, varied pundits recommended the Nationals as a match for star slugger Pete Alonso, however including Lowe and Bell takes them out of that dialog. Equally, signing Soroka and re-signing Trevor Williams nearly definitely means they received’t pursue a extra significant improve for his or her rotation. The Nats might nonetheless pull off a giant shock and signal Alex Bregman – ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recommended he was a “major goal” of theirs in November – however the truth that they made a suggestion to Gleyber Torres suggests they’re extra focused on stopgap options than huge splashes.
Thus, the Nationals stay unlikely to contend in 2025. Maybe sufficient of their younger gamers will escape and lead this crew on a shock Wild Card push, however I’d sooner wager that Washington will probably be out of competition by July. In different phrases, I’d sooner wager that Bell will probably be packing his baggage forward of the commerce deadline for a fourth 12 months in a row.
