2025 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The workforce order is chosen by lot, and the following workforce up is the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

In return for his or her mini-free agent spree after practically making the playoffs in 2023, the Cincinnati Reds dropped 5 wins, ending 2024 with a 77-85 document. It wasn’t as dangerous because it seemed — the workforce improved its Pythagorean document by 5 wins in comparison with the yr earlier than — but it surely felt awful that solely Nick Martinez actually shined amongst their signings. Elly De La Cruz did escape in an enormous manner — he was a authentic MVP contender for a lot of the season — however Matt McLain’s torn labrum and rib damage stored him away from the motion.

A have a look at the depth chart graphic makes it fairly clear the place the Reds are robust: Even with some regression towards the imply, De La Cruz is the workforce’s most vital participant, and if wholesome, McLain will improve second base. Persevering with the up-the-middle energy is Jose Trevino, lately acquired from the Yankees; he and Tyler Stephenson give the Reds a superb tandem behind the plate. TJ Friedl in heart will get a much less thrilling projection, however he’s nonetheless completely serviceable as a starter, and he’s the worst projected participant of the up-the-middle quartet.

However whereas the remainder of the lineup isn’t disastrous, it’s a large bucket of “meh.” The Reds have apparently resolved their third base logjam within the worst doable manner: all of the contenders mainly have been both disappointing or injured. The bats at first base, designated hitter, and in proper subject are within the backside third of the ZiPS projections. And even with a bounce-back projected for Spencer Steer after his 96 wRC+ in 2024, left subject isn’t a shining beacon of hope both.

The opposite downside is that once you have a look at the minors, there aren’t apparent gamers to vary issues up down there. A lot of the higher projected gamers are minor league journeymen varieties forecast for 1 WAR, and several other are minor league free brokers anyway. Edwin Arroyo has essentially the most fascinating long-term projection, however he’s coming off shoulder surgical procedure and isn’t a beefy nook outfield/first base sort.

Pitchers

Hunter Greene lastly put it collectively for a full season in 2024, a reduction each to Reds followers and to me since I preserve placing him on my breakout record yearly. Now I can cease! I wouldn’t say that Greene is certainly within the tier of pitchers the place you discover guys like Zack Wheeler, however he’s most likely within the subsequent group down, starters who can theoretically put up a Cy Younger-worthy season in yr. The place the Reds as soon as needed to fear about Greene, they’ll most likely ponder different issues now.

Martinez is a splendidly versatile pitcher, and although not a star, the Reds can plug him in most locations fairly fortunately, even with out him being an enormous strikeout man. The remainder of the rotation reads as extra serviceable/competent than an enormous a part of the workforce. Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo are quietly common, and positively helpful, however there’s no huge ceiling like with Greene or Rhett Lowder. ZiPS nonetheless thinks Graham Ashcraft has some upside remaining, although the pc’s come down a little bit in comparison with the final couple of seasons. And I have a tendency to love the acquisition of Brady Singer higher than ZiPS does — it worries about him sustaining his glorious HR/9 price in Cincy.

ZiPS isn’t a fan of the bullpen in any respect, although it’s not as dangerous because the graphic suggests. Luis Mey, who has variety of innings on the depth chart, has the worst pitching projection of anyone within the group. ZiPS doesn’t like his command one bit, although I think about the workforce gained’t preserve him within the huge league ‘pen if this projection seems to be correct.

Outdoors of Alexis Díaz, Martinez when utilized in reduction, and Ashcraft if he finds his manner there, ZiPS finds the Reds relievers to be a lackluster mixture of arms. The massive exception would possibly be Tony Santillan, who pitched very nicely for the large membership however walked 5 batters per sport within the minors. Nonetheless, if he continues to pitch like he did in August and September, his projection will flip round pretty shortly.

The Reds look rather a lot like a .500 workforce in 2025, however they don’t seem like a doomed, hopeless one, which is one thing.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time. The ultimate workforce projections might differ significantly from our Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 as a result of damage, and gamers who have been launched in 2024. So sure, should you see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to kind a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected workforce WAR. It is very important do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a workforce will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our good friend and former editor. You may, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.