2025 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this yr’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The group order is chosen by lot, and the following group up is the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

To get this out of the best way, ZiPS completely adores Chicago’s lineup, from prime to backside and each which method round. ZiPS and the Cubs have been on the identical web page earlier than — the projections for Shota Imanaga final winter had me proclaiming that his deal was the offseason’s greatest signing — however the projections haven’t been this excessive on the lineup because the group’s World Collection rivalry days. Now, a number of that’s protection, with Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong every having elite defensive projections. However there’s a number of bat in there as properly, with six starters projected for a 100 OPS+ or higher, and two of the three who aren’t — Swanson and PCA — bolstered by their aforementioned protection.

Certainly, the system’s love for the Cubs was so intense that, as with the 2023 Diamondbacks (a group ZiPS completely drooled over), I made certain to double-check that one thing humorous wasn’t happening by projecting the group utilizing an older model of ZiPS. Very similar to Arizona two years in the past, there was mainly no change (0.2 WAR). The happy-Cubs impact has gotten stronger because the begin of the winter, with the group jettisoning plenty of gamers ZiPS wasn’t excessive on (Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes), whereas including a participant who ZiPS has all the time appreciated (Kyle Tucker) and discovering extra taking part in time for Matt Shaw, who initiatives to be an honest starter proper now. ZiPS even likes Gage Workman, who was picked up within the Rule 5 draft. It’s a smaller transfer, however whereas the pc isn’t optimistic about his bat, it had him as among the finest defensive third basemen within the minors.

Now, the taking part in time will come down as soon as I do the Formally Licensed ZiPS Projected Standings, however the laptop thinks this can be a terrific group. It even likes the blokes developing. Because it did with Michael Busch final yr, it sees Shaw as a official Rookie of the Yr candidate, and thinks that Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros may very well be actual contributors within the majors proper now. And it already sees Kevin Alcántara as having a profession projection of 25 WAR! I’m virtually bored that there’s nothing to be imply about, at the least because it pertains to the offense.

Pitchers

On the flip aspect, ZiPS is way much less excited in regards to the pitching workers, particularly the rotation. Because the laptop was already passionate about Imanaga, it sees him about the identical because it did final winter, and it likes Justin Steele simply effective. However when you get previous the highest two and Matthew Boyd, who ZiPS actually digs regardless of the accidents given his sturdy stretch run, it’s a moderately “meh” set of projections, filled with serviceable-at-best pitchers with ERAs fancied up by the group’s protection. ZiPS believes that Javier Assad can proceed to beat his FIP by greater than the protection contributes, however with a 4.48 FIP projection, you’re not going to see a projected ERA within the 3.00s, even with the adjustment.

With a luxurious tax quantity below $200 million and no onerous long-term offers, the Cubs are a group that must be actually concerned within the offseason pitching market. There are nonetheless dudes on the board!

The projections for the bullpen are extra optimistic than they’re for the rotation, although they fall in need of being elite. There’s an amusing consistency among the many relievers, with ZiPS mainly projecting everybody for ERAs between 3.40 and three.90, with one notable exception. That exception is Nate Pearson, who nonetheless has an excessive amount of upside, however who stays moderately dangerous; ZiPS would favor that he and his 4.10 projected ERA be relegated to lower-leverage conditions till he reveals one thing.

Elsewhere, the projections for Cody Poteet are intriguing. The Cubs didn’t eat sufficient of Bellinger’s contract to get an actual prospect, however the 30-year-old right-hander may very well be a priceless bullpen piece who can even throw the occasional emergency begin. Ben Brown’s projection as a starter is already wholesome, however as a reliever, ZiPS sees him as one of the best nearer possibility on the group, with a projected ERA proper round 3.00 there.

With ZiPS’ extra conservative taking part in time, the Cubs are a slight favourite in NL Central as they’re at present constituted, forecast for 86-87 wins. But when they had been so as to add a Roki Sasaki or a Corbin Burnes, they may very properly undertaking because the clear division standout.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names may be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time. The ultimate group projections might differ significantly from our Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This consists of gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 as a consequence of harm, and gamers who had been launched in 2024. So sure, if you happen to see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to type a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from those who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected group WAR. It is very important do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how rapidly a group will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You possibly can, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.