The long-awaited Cody Bellinger commerce has arrived. The Yankees and Cubs introduced a commerce sending Bellinger and money concerns to the Bronx in change for right-hander Cody Poteet. Chicago is reportedly paying down $5MM of the $52.5MM remaining on Bellinger’s contract. They’ll pay $2.5MM of subsequent season’s $27.5MM wage and ship one other $2.5MM in 2026 — both masking a portion of his $25MM wage for that season or paying half of the $5MM buyout if he opts out of his contract subsequent winter. New York reportedly plans to make use of Bellinger as a middle fielder.
Bellinger heading to the Bronx is a logical match and it has been in loads of rumors just lately. In the beginning of the offseason, the Yankees misplaced Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo to free company, opening up two holes of their outfield and one at first base. Since Bellinger has performed each the outfield and at first, the 29-year-old was seen as a attainable match for his or her 2025 plans in varied methods. The Yanks pursued Soto for a very long time however he ultimately landed with the Mets, pushing the Yankees to a number of backup plans. They’ve since signed left-hander Max Fried and purchased right-hander Devin Williams to improve their rotation and bullpen.
For the Cubs, Bellinger has appeared expendable for just a few causes. On the one hand, Pete Crow-Armstrong emerged as a viable glove-first heart fielder in 2024, which was Bellinger’s major spot the 12 months earlier than. Michael Busch additionally took over the primary base spot. With Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki within the outfield corners, Bellinger was a bit squeezed. The Cubs solely compounded the issue after they acquired Kyle Tucker from the Astros.
Nevertheless, past the roster crunch, the Cubs have been additionally probably motivated to maneuver Bellinger as a consequence of his decline in efficiency. After some tough years with the Dodgers whereas recovering from shoulder surgical procedure, the Cubs took a bounceback flier on Bellinger in 2023. After being non-tendered by the Dodgers, the Cubs gave Bellinger a $17.5MM assure on a one-year pact, hoping he may recover from his damage woes and return to being the participant that received Most Helpful Participant in 2019.
He didn’t get all the way in which again to that stage however was nonetheless nice worth for that funding. He stole 20 bases and hit 26 residence runs. He solely struck out 15.6% of the time. The opinions of his heart area protection have been blended however have been largely near league common. He additionally moved to first base once in a while. He slashed .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ and produced 4.4 wins above alternative, within the eyes of FanGraphs.
Maybe the Cubs would have been completely satisfied to stroll away at that time. They gave Bellinger a qualifying provide and didn’t appear to have a really excessive motivation to re-sign him, however nor did another golf equipment, as Bellinger remained unsigned via late February. Ultimately, he and the Cubs agreed to a three-year, $80MM take care of opt-outs after every season.
On that sort of deal, the perfect case situation for the membership is that the participant performs effectively after which opts out. If the participant doesn’t decide out, it means he doesn’t like his prospects in free company, which probably means he obtained harm or underperformed.
Bellinger’s manufacturing did certainly slip relative to 2023, although it wasn’t disastrous. He stole 9 bases and hit 19 residence runs. His strikeout charge held regular at 15.6%. He slashed .266/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 109. His heart area protection was nonetheless graded as round league common however he spent much less time there because of the aforementioned emergence of Crow-Armstrong. He produced 2.2 fWAR, half of the 12 months earlier than.
Going into the offseason, it was a borderline name as as to if Bellinger would decide out or not. He may have taken the $2.5MM buyout and brought his possibilities, leaving a $52.5MM assure on the desk. Whereas he might have been capable of beat the $50MM distinction this winter, he determined to remain, maybe because of the approach the present contract is allotted. He’ll make $27.5MM in 2025 with a $5MM buyout on his $25MM for 2026. There’s a best-case situation for him personally the place he performs higher in 2025 after which takes the second opt-out, returning to the open market with larger incomes energy, pocketing $32.5MM within the course of. He determined that was extra enticing than opting out this 12 months.
It appears honest to conclude that the Cubs would have reasonably he opted out. Commerce rumors surrounding Bellinger have been flying all offseason and now the Cubs have moved on from him, largely for wage aid. By taking over the vast majority of that wage, the Yankees haven’t had to surrender a lot, although there may be monetary danger and the deal has extra draw back than upside.
If Bellinger performs particularly effectively in 2025, he’ll set off that opt-out. That can depart the Yankees having paid him $27.5MM for one 12 months, which is the best-case situation for them at this level. Although if he doesn’t play effectively or finishes the upcoming season with a notable damage, he’ll keep on their books for 2026, with the Yanks on the hook for $22.5MM of his $25MM wage.
The Yankees are additionally repeat luxurious tax payors, which is able to add to what they’re paying Bellinger. In the event that they find yourself above the best threshold as they did in 2024, then they’re slated for a 110% tax on spending excessive line, so any new additions to the roster successfully price double. That compounds the chance they’re taking with Bellinger however the identical can be true if they’d as a substitute opted to signal a free agent or purchase one other participant making a notable wage.
Bellinger has been a really streaky participant in his profession, so it’s anybody’s guess which of these outcomes is extra probably within the upcoming 12 months. As talked about, he’s proven MVP upside however adopted that up with a stretch so unhealthy that he was non-tendered. He roared again in 2023 however dipped a bit in 2024.
All that being mentioned, it’s comprehensible why the Yankees can be excited by taking this danger. The free agent market options outfielders like Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander, however they are going to probably find yourself with bigger ensures than Bellinger. Santander is reportedly searching for a five-year deal and Hernández three, every probably hoping for a mean annual worth of $20MM or extra.
They’re additionally each bat-first guys with poor protection, whereas Bellinger is able to being a powerful defender in an outfield nook or maybe satisfactory in heart. The Yanks performed Aaron Choose in heart quite a bit in 2024 whereas utilizing Verdugo and Soto within the corners, although it appears that evidently Choose is now slated to return to proper area. That’s a smart pivot since Choose’s marks have been poor this 12 months and he’s about to show 33, that means the long-term toll on his physique must be thought-about. The Yankees might have continued to have Choose up the center if they’d re-signed Soto however after he signed with the Mets, it was reported the the membership was planning to maneuver Choose again to proper and have Jasson Domínguez get a crack on the heart area job.
Now that they’ve landed Bellinger, it appears he’s Plan A for heart. As talked about, the superior metrics have been a bit break up on his viability there. In over 4,000 innings, he has been credited with 10 Defensive Runs Saved. Nevertheless, most of that constructive worth got here earlier in his profession with the Dodgers. He’s been common or beneath for 4 straight years now. Outs Above Common, nonetheless, is way extra bullish. That metric has given Bellinger a grade of +19 in his profession, having him at par or higher in each season of his profession.
Maybe there’s a situation the place Domínguez looks as if the higher choice and pushes Bellinger to a nook, however there’s no assure he shall be a succesful massive leaguer in 2025 in any respect. He tore via the minors after which debuted with a splash in 2023, however he then required Tommy John surgical procedure late that 12 months, which put him on the shelf for a good chunk of 2024. He then missed extra time this 12 months as a consequence of an indirect pressure and has solely appeared in 26 massive league video games at this level. He’ll probably nonetheless get a shot at taking the left area job subsequent to Bellinger and Choose however isn’t assured something, with guys like Everson Pereira and Spencer Jones round to present him some competitors.
The Yanks didn’t have many different choices in the event that they needed to discover a answer for heart area. The free agent market is arguably led by glove-first Harrison Bader, who they weren’t prone to signal anyway after a foul expertise buying and selling for him in 2022. The commerce market has different choices akin to Luis Robert Jr., although all experiences have indicated the White Sox are setting a excessive asking worth though Robert is coming off yet one more injury-marred season.
It’s additionally attainable that they alter their plans, relying on how the remainder of the offseason performs out. They reportedly have curiosity in varied first base choices, akin to commerce candidates Josh Naylor or Nathaniel Lowe, in addition to free brokers Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Carlos Santana and Paul Goldschmidt. But when they will’t full a deal they like there, they may all the time pivot again to Hernández and/or Santander or another outfielder, sending Bellinger to first base in that situation.
For the Cubs, they’re probably completely satisfied to get the vast majority of Bellinger’s wage off their books but in addition take a flier on Poteet. The 30-year-old has 83 innings of main league expertise at this level between the Marlins and Yankees, lacking the 2023 season whereas recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure. He returned to the mound in 2024 but in addition missed about three months as a consequence of a proper triceps pressure.
He tossed 24 1/3 innings within the majors this 12 months over 4 begins and one aid look. He allowed 2.22 earned runs per 9 with a 16.7% strikeout charge, 8.3% stroll charge and 42.3% floor ball charge. He additionally made ten Triple-A begins with a 3.92 ERA, 27.2% strikeout charge, 8.3% stroll charge and 40.7% floor ball charge.
The Cubs have already got a strong rotation combine consisting of Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad. They’ve been linked to Jesús Luzardo in latest rumors and now have Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Cade Horton within the combine. Poteet nonetheless has choices and may slot in as Triple-A depth for the Cubs.
Financially, RosterResource now has the Cubs with a aggressive stability tax calculation of $192MM, nearly $50MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. They went a bit over the road in 2024 however it’s unclear if they’re keen to take action once more in 2025. It’s additionally unclear if they’ve another massive strikes deliberate now that they’ve added Tucker and Boyd. The bullpen may actually use some upgrades however the membership has typically shied away from massive splashes there.
RR places the Yankees at a $270MM payroll and a luxurious tax calculation of $292MM. They’d a payroll round $300MM final 12 months and due to this fact nonetheless have a little bit of wiggle room for different strikes if they’re keen to get to the same stage subsequent 12 months. The highest tier of the tax begins at $301MM subsequent 12 months, so they aren’t removed from getting as much as that 110% tax charge, however are already at a 95% charge at their present stage.
They’re nonetheless looking out for assist on the infield corners, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. probably slated to be moved from third to second base, although including a second baseman and holding Chisholm at third can also be a chance. Maybe a commerce of Marcus Stroman may assist in a number of methods, as he’s making a notable wage and arguably surplus to necessities within the rotation.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Bellinger and money have been going to the Yankees for Poteet. Jack Curry of YES Community first had the $5MM whole. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that it was break up into $2.5MM per 12 months whereas Passan added that the second half can be coming whatever the opt-out resolution. Bob Nightengale of USA At the moment reported that Bellinger has been instructed he’ll be enjoying heart area for the Yanks.
