For a month or so yearly it appears, Danny Jansen appears like Babe Ruth. The one season out of the previous 4 wherein he hasn’t put up a 20-game stretch with a wRC+ over 200 was 2023, and he was fairly superior in 2023 anyway; he posted a 115 wRC+ total that yr, whereas taking part in probably the most offensively-challenged place within the sport, no much less. So in some methods, the Rays might need simply signed the very best offensive catcher in baseball:
@JeffPassan tweetedCatcher Danny Jansen and the Tampa Bay Rays are in settlement on a one-year, $8.5 million contract that features a mutual possibility for a second season, sources inform ESPN. Jansen, who has performed in Toronto and Boston, stays within the AL East. On it: @ByRobertMurray and @TBTimes_Rays.
— Passanthallich (@passanthalbot.bsky.social) 2024-12-06T18:18:18.487825+00:00
In fact, in relation to total manufacturing, they completely didn’t. Jansen was white sizzling to begin the yr in 2024 – after which ended the season with an 89 wRC+, going from goal deadline acquisition to backup within the course of. And whereas he has certainly hit properly when wholesome, he will get damage loads. Throughout these aforementioned 4 seasons, he’s collected only one,078 plate appearances. He hit the IL twice in 2021, twice once more in ’22, twice but once more in ’23, after which missed the beginning of the ’24 season rehabbing from the final ’23 damage.
So possibly Jansen is secretly a tremendous hitter – or possibly it’s a miracle that he may even nonetheless play baseball. Both of these might be true, and naturally the reality is probably going someplace in between. The Rays are famously good at discerning the place within the “someplace within the center” gamers lie, and as such, they really feel like a pure house for Jansen.
Discovering catchers who can each hit and subject is almost unimaginable. The Rays haven’t significantly prioritized them within the draft, they usually actually haven’t gone out of their option to commerce for or signal marquee catchers. That’s how they ended up with Ben Rortvedt (profession wRC+: 70) as their major catcher in 2024. In 2023, that function went to Christian Bethancourt (profession wRC+: 71). In 2022, Bethancourt backed up Francisco Mejía (profession wRC+: a scintillating 86, although with poor protection).
The purpose of this listing isn’t to disgrace the Rays. OK, it’s a bit bit to disgrace the Rays; over the past three years, they’re eighth within the majors in successful proportion however twenty fourth in WAR produced by catchers. Principally, although, I’m simply attempting to level out that their technique in recent times has principally concerned utterly ignoring catcher and hoping issues work out anyway.
It’s onerous to argue with that plan within the large sense, as a result of how on the planet are you going to get a star catcher? They don’t hit free company. You possibly can’t simply commerce for them, as a result of the groups who’ve them wish to preserve them. Given the damage and tear that comes with taking part in the place, the celebs don’t even final lengthy more often than not. Throwing your arms up and shifting on seems like a justifiable determination provided that context.
I feel I like this new technique from Tampa Bay extra, although. Is Jansen going to be an All-Star? It’s actually a lot lower than a 50/50 proposition. However he’ll most likely be a mean hitter, or at the very least in that neighborhood. Even higher, at the very least from the Rays’ perspective: He received’t break the financial institution. Early this winter, pitchers have commanded luxury-good salaries. The Rays are budget-conscious at the very best of occasions, and this isn’t the very best of occasions. After Hurricane Milton ripped the roof off of Tropicana Subject, the Rays have been compelled to relocate to a minor league stadium for 2025, and their future house remains to be very a lot up within the air.
In my eyes, that eradicated them from the marketplace for free agent pitchers. The Rays excel at discovering kinds of gamers that the league as an entire undervalues, and properly, that’s actually not the case for beginning pitchers proper now. You possibly can quibble over whether or not they’re correctly valued or overvalued relative to different gamers, however nobody’s two years and $34 million (plus an decide out) for Frankie Montas and saying “how did he settle for such a low deal.”
Jansen, alternatively? He’s getting solely $8.5 million, and I feel there’s a superb likelihood he’ll rack up as a lot worth as Montas subsequent yr. That wouldn’t be the case for each crew; the groups with established catching choices wouldn’t get that a lot use out of him, and if I have been operating a crew that signed Jansen, I’d need both to platoon him or at the very least give him loads of relaxation. On condition that Rortvedt is a lefty, one thing like a timeshare the place Jansen performs two-thirds of the time, with Rortvedt principally taking part in in opposition to righty opposition appears nice.
In fact, there’s a simple means this signing may not work, and arguably it’s the rationale that Jansen was out there for under a one-year deal. Like I already talked about, catchers have a brief shelf life. Jansen simply put up his worst yr as a serious leaguer, and that prolonged damage historical past means he’s by no means eclipsed 400 plate appearances in a season. His barrel charge, hard-hit charge, and common exit velocity all declined to scary ranges in 2024.
If there have been no danger to signing Jansen, the Rays possible wouldn’t have come calling. However I feel the chance is overblown, significantly at catcher. Even a much-diminished Jansen could be a giant improve from what they’ve been getting out of their catchers in recent times. Even when they might signal a comparable participant at one other place to the identical deal, they’d obtain much less of an improve; Jansen is enhancing their weakest place.
One other mind-set about it: Excluding relievers, I can’t consider a participant prone to signal for lower than Jansen who might be All-Star in 2025. Jansen matches that invoice for me, although. I’m not saying it’s possible, however the offensive outbursts he produces each season are actually All-Star caliber. The query is how continuously he can entry that type, and Tampa Bay looks like a really perfect touchdown spot for him in that sense; the Rays wonderful at placing their gamers in the very best place to succeed.
Jansen’s offensive recreation, even when he’s sizzling, is extraordinarily polarized. He’s not a well-rounded hitter; he’s a lift-and-pull masher who’s attempting to tuck each ball over the left subject wall. Solely Adam Duvall and famous Rays overachiever Isaac Paredes have pulled their fly balls extra continuously in recent times. There’s a ton of Paredes in his recreation, actually: He not often swings and misses, reveals persistence on the plate, and will get low-cost homers and low BABIPs on account of his strategy.
Clearly, the Paredes playbook has already labored as soon as in Tampa Bay. It’d get even higher this yr; Baltimore simply made its left subject fence a bit much less ridiculous, and the AL East was already a superb place for righty energy because of Fenway Park. Steinbrenner Subject, the Rays’ non permanent house, is a wild card within the combine. It replicates Yankee Stadium’s dimensions precisely, and whereas it has performed like a pitcher’s park within the minors, I feel it’s affordable to count on a impartial and even barely pro-hitter marks within the bigs. The one wrinkle right here is that the left subject nook is barely farther away than the Trop’s foul pole.
My prediction, given all that: Jansen goes to hit for energy persistently when he performs, and the Rays will discover him stadium and pitching matchups that emphasize his finest traits. I’m additionally anticipating an IL stint – generally previous efficiency is indicative of future outcomes – and acceptable-but-not-great protection. It’ll be a a lot completely different look from Rays catchers of current years, that’s for positive.
I’m not sure that the Jansen signing will work out. How might I be? However I do assume it’s a classically Rays-y transfer, the type that has served them so properly for greater than a decade now. The remainder of the league is scouring free company for pitching, however the Rays have already got a superb pitching employees, and they also’re purchasing elsewhere. They’re getting a participant who resembles a former Tampa Bay star, at an inexpensive charge, at their weakest place. Make a ton of bets like this, and also you’ll do properly in the long term. That’s kind of the franchise motto at this level.
