2025 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra info on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The group order is chosen by lot, and the following group up is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

They’re the Dodgers, in order traditional, they’ve large stars, good depth, and a truckload of versatility at most positions. Is that ’nuff stated?

A 7-WAR projection for a DH is, after all, bananas, and ZiPS really has a 40/40 season because the common Shohei Ohtani projection, not an aspirational purpose. Naturally, he’s acquired a fantastic shot at going 50/50 once more, although I’ve to surprise if, now that he’s reached that milestone and will likely be again to pitching, the Dodgers will insist on him being extra conservative together with his baserunning.

Actually, there simply aren’t many surprises right here. ZiPS sees the left area state of affairs as merely OK because it stands proper now, with each different place higher than that. A number of this can be old-fashioned in a couple of weeks (information of Michael Conforto’s signing broke as I used to be scripting this, as an illustration), however the Dodgers might theoretically roll with the lineup they’ve and be simply superb. How precisely Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman, and Chris Taylor find yourself being deployed continues to be a bit TBD, although it does seem that Plan A will end in Betts getting a variety of time at shortstop once more.

ZiPS expects one thing of a bounce-back season from James Outman, although it’s arduous to say simply how a lot rope a group just like the Dodgers will give him. Apart from noting how good the Dodgers are all over the place, the lineup is boring in the very best type of manner. It’s a bunch of terrific gamers nonetheless principally within the prime of their careers, most of whom will likely be good-to-great in 2025.

If there’s a weak spot — and I could also be stretching the definition of the phrase — it’s that ZiPS sees fewer hitters than traditional within the excessive minors who’re straining to hit the majors, not less than fewer in comparison with the Dodgers’ requirements. ZiPS likes Dalton Dashing simply superb, although extra as a catcher, which isn’t a positional drawback for the group, and it already sees Alex Freeland as a respectable main league starter. However a lot of the actually attention-grabbing prospects are both pitchers or developmental hitters within the very low minors who’re type of out of the ZiPS wheelhouse.

Pitchers

Los Angeles’ rotation of tremendously proficient arms with damage threat nearly fell aside this 12 months, because the Dodgers struggled late within the season to really get 5 of their 12 or 13 attention-grabbing starters in uniform concurrently. However there aren’t any model factors in championships and nearly falling aside was all they wanted, because the group rolled the Yankees within the World Sequence.

As I famous in his transaction writeup, Blake Snell does lots to stabilize the rotation, and if the Dodgers can get 700 innings out of a mix of him, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, and Tony Gonsolin, I’m undecided any NL West group can severely threaten for the division. That stated, there nonetheless are a variety of unknowns right here. The precise timetable for Ohtani’s return to pitching is arising “ask me later” on the Magic 8-Ball, with the rehab from the damage he suffered in Sport 2 of the World Sequence doubtlessly complicating issues. On the very least, he’s unlikely to be prepared for the group’s opening sequence in Japan. Plus, it could be surprising if the Dodgers weren’t within the combine for Roki Sasaki or different starters, and whereas he’s not below contract proper now, so far as I’m conscious, Clayton Kershaw will mainly be a Dodger at any time when he’s prepared (he’s at present recovering from toe and knee surgical procedure).

The bullpen tasks as top-of-the-line in baseball. Projecting Michael Kopech as solely a reliever drops his projected ERA to three.39, making him one in all eight relievers on the depth chart (together with the just lately re-signed Blake Treinen) projected for an ERA below 3.50 in such a job. ZiPS continues to be a bit skeptical of Anthony Banda (although it nonetheless has him with an ERA beneath 4.00 as a reliever) and it’s uncertain simply how a lot Giovanny Gallegos has left. Fortunately, the Dodgers have top-of-the-line observe information round of compacting strong bullpen outings of virtually anybody; I believe a block of cheddar cheese may be above substitute stage out of the Dodgers ‘pen.

The Dodgers are the early favourite to enter 2025 because the group ZiPS tasks to win essentially the most video games. Stunning, proper?

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here. Dimension of participant names may be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart enjoying time. The ultimate group projections might differ significantly from our Depth Chart enjoying time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever attainable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 as a result of damage, and gamers who have been launched in 2024. So sure, if you happen to see Joe Schmoe, who give up baseball again in August to kind a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected group WAR. You will need to do not forget that ZiPS is agnostic about enjoying time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a group will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As at all times, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our buddy and former editor. You possibly can, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.