Right this moment, at FanGraphs dot com, we’re turning over a brand new leaf. The final two instances Aroldis Chapman modified groups — when he signed with the Pirates final January and when he was traded from Kansas Metropolis to Texas seven months prior — Jay Jaffe and I each referenced the Tattoo An infection Incident of 2022. It’s memorable and helpful as a shorthand for the ignoble finish to Chapman’s tenure with the Yankees — although each of his stints in New York have been to a larger or lesser extent ignoble all through.
Greater than that, Lindsey Adler’s story on the scenario launched a novel clause to the sportswriting canon, a literary development so vivid it clearly fascinated each Jay and myself for months after the actual fact. However no extra. I’m going to write down an Aroldis Chapman story with out quoting the phrase, “veritable moat of pus.”
Oh crap, I stated the phrase that pays. What a pity; with that stated, I’ll absolutely have one other alternative to write down a clear transaction story concerning the veteran left-hander when he modifies groups once more. As a result of if Chapman remains to be capable of command a one-year, $10.75 million contract from the Crimson Sox, it appears main league groups are decided to maintain giving probabilities to a participant who should have exhausted the game’s endurance by now.
The non-public causes for groups to keep away from Chapman are quite a few and memorable, from his office absenteeism in 2022 to the appalling particulars of his home violence case that merited a 30-game suspension in 2016. Final winter, I admitted to being confused by the Pirates’ eagerness to courtroom such a participant, given the goodwill they’d began to construct up after years of fielding noncompetitive rosters.
The Crimson Sox aren’t fairly in the identical boat; they have been within the ALCS as lately as 2021 and received the World Collection in 2018, with a workforce that I’d rank as the perfect of that decade. However since 2018, the Sox have simply the one playoff look, and so they have extra last-place finishes than profitable seasons. Not precisely a workforce with social capital to throw round wantonly.
Precise capital, nonetheless, the Crimson Sox have in abundance. The Boston groups of the previous 5 years have largely been failures, however excellent news: They’ve been costly failures. Even lately, with payroll downsizing and detached possession, the Crimson Sox have run payrolls north of $180 million, stretching into the $200 million vary now and again.
In 2024, the Crimson Sox paid a mixed $26.9 million to 3 late-30s aid pitchers: Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Luis Garcia. All three are at the moment free brokers, and Boston’s payroll commitments for 2025 at the moment stand at simply $148 million. What’s $10.75 million for Chapman, in that context, however a drop within the bucket?
Crimson Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow continues to construct bullpens out of items that have been aggressive again when he himself was pitching. Chapman joins Liam Hendriks on the sharp finish of Boston’s bullpen. Each pitchers have February birthdays; Hendricks will flip 36 simply earlier than spring coaching, and 18 days later Chapman will flip 37.
Many completely satisfied returns.
A number of years in the past, these two have been among the many greatest relievers in baseball. Hendriks has thrown simply 5 innings over the previous two seasons; he missed the primary two months of 2023 whereas present process therapy for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, then tore his UCL about two weeks after his return to sport motion.
What of Chapman? His private historical past doesn’t appear to trouble GMs that a lot, so what do they nonetheless discover engaging about him as a pitcher?
Nicely, it’s not that he’s the hardest-throwing pitcher on the earth anymore. Chapman’s four-seamer, which topped out at a mean velocity of 101.1 mph in 2016, now is available in at 97.8 mph, making it the Twenty second-fastest four-seam fastball within the majors final season (minimal 100 pitches). The King of Velo Mountain is now Angels reliever Ben Joyce, whereas Chapman’s down with… wow, would you take a look at that! Thyago Vieira’s again within the Present!
Forgive me, I’m being glib. That doesn’t inform the entire story. For one, Chapman nonetheless has the second-best four-seamer velocity amongst left-handed pitchers. Extra related, he’s had a sinker, which is available in tougher than his four-seamer, for a number of years now. That pitch was the sixth quickest in baseball in 2024, counting all fastball sorts.
Chapman’s has been throwing his sinker an increasing number of because the years have gone on; he used it 27% of the time in 2024, which for all sensible functions gave it parity along with his four-seamer. Chapman averaged 16.6 pitches per outing this previous yr, which involves about 4 and a half sinkers and just a little over 5 and a half four-seamers.
The toughest sinker Chapman threw in 2024 clocked 105.1 mph. It missed the strike zone.
Which is what I wish to name a microcosm. As a result of when Chapman’s on the mound, a sensible hitter won’t even trouble utilizing his bat.
Since 2021, there have been 627 particular person certified reliever seasons. Chapman owns three of these, and all three are within the high 17 reliever seasons for stroll charge. Chapman fell wanting qualifying in 2022 (once more, “veritable moat of pus”), when his stroll charge was 17.5%.
The walkiest relievers in baseball historical past embrace some cautionary tales; Daniel Bard’s yips season is in no. 1 on the checklist, as an example. However the checklist of high 25 stroll charge seasons since 2021 is stuffed with pitchers who changed into unhittable monsters proper afterward: José Alvarado, Cristian Javier, Kirby Yates, Lucas Erceg, Tanner Scott twice…
I’m skeptical that Chapman can do the identical. He’s by no means had nice management, even in his most dominant years with the Reds, and that stroll charge has teetered on the sting of unlivable for 4 full seasons now.
Since 2023, he’s proven stunning… I don’t wish to name it finesse, as a result of he’s nonetheless strolling the yard. However it’s one thing in that neighborhood. Chapman got here up because the purest fastball-slider flamethrower you would think about; now he’s an precise four-pitch pitcher.
It’s nonetheless fastball-slider to lefties, however he’s mixing 4 pitches — four-seamer, sinker, slider, splitter — to right-handed hitters. And the brand new pitches have been his handiest; final season, they have been his two greatest by way of opponent batting common, wOBA, xwOBA, and whiff charge. For the previous two seasons, Chapman has really dealt with righties rather a lot higher than lefties.
Chapman’s Reverse Splits, 2023-24
| Opponent | FF% | SI% | SL% | SF% | Whiff% | wOBA | Okay% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. LHH | 44.9 | 9.1 | 42.7 | 3.3 | 35.8 | .313 | 30.9 | 19.5 |
| vs. RHH | 39.3 | 25.9 | 23.2 | 11.6 | 37.3 | .263 | 41.7 | 13.0 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Even with the ludicrous stroll charge, Chapman was high quality in 2024; he had an ERA of three.79, however his FIP and xERA averaged out to an excellent 3.00, indicating he was just a little unfortunate.
However it’s not clear to me that it is a $10 million a yr reliever. Once more. That is apparently a minority opinion; each Ben Clemens and his fan crowdsourcing Cerebro pegged Chapman for one yr and $10 million. Getting that contract proper inside $1 million looks like a win to me.
However in addition they estimated contracts for Yates, Scott, Jansen, Clay Holmes, Carlos Estévez, Blake Treinen, and Jeff Hoffman, all of which got here in between $8 million and $12 million every year. I’d take each single a kind of pitchers over Chapman if the cash have been the identical. If a free agent reliever named Chapis Aroldman blinked into existence this morning with Chapman’s actual bodily and statistical attributes, however not one of the aura conferred by his 335 profession saves or the emeritus title of quickest pitcher alive, Aroldman wouldn’t be as handsomely compensated.
Chapman has been an idiosyncratic, however usually above-average reliever for the previous two seasons. I think about that if he’s wholesome, he’s able to doing the identical in 2025. Maybe Breslow and his merry males have a plan to extract much more from the getting old flamethrower.
I don’t suppose Chapman is a foul pitcher, however I query the logic of a rebuilding workforce paying $10.75 million for a 36-year-old one-inning reliever. Notably this one. Possibly the market will explode over the subsequent two months and we’ll look again on this signing as a coup for Boston. Till then, it’s cash that might’ve been spent extra productively elsewhere.
