Joel Dahmen gained his PGA Tour card in dramatic trend. Here is the catch

Joel Dahmen’s chase for a PGA Tour card was arguably essentially the most resonant story of the autumn season. With 125 playing cards accessible, the Tour fan favourite entered the ultimate week of the season at No. 124, together with his future in severe jeopardy. A double-bogey 7 late in Saturday’s spherical appeared to doom his probabilities — however then he bounced again with a Sunday 64 that catapulted him again to No. 124, precisely the place he’d began the week and simply contained in the quantity.

However based on the oldsters at DataGolf, you could possibly make the case that Dahmen’s 2025 PGA Tour standing may really make it more durable to return for him to return in 2026. Had he missed out on the highest 125 Dahmen could have opted to play a Korn Ferry Tour schedule, and per their calculations it’s really simpler to earn PGA Tour standing by way of the KFT than to maintain it whereas on Tour.

To be clear, no person is suggesting Dahmen ought to have punted on ending prime 125. Being on the PGA Tour is your complete level, in spite of everything. The cash, the majors, the factors, the perks, the dream, the upside. Dahmen’s job is to maximise all of that, to not merely retain his card for 2026. It’s additionally robust to undertaking what Dahmen’s 2025 would appear to be had he completed No. 126, for example, and performed a combination of KFT and PGA Tour occasions. Nevertheless it’s nonetheless an fascinating lens by way of which to discover the adjustments to the PGA Tour’s construction, which can see playing cards decreased from 125 to 100 on the finish of subsequent season and scale back KFT graduates from 30 to twenty.

What does the mathematics say? Per DataGolf’s wonderful publication, the A hundredth-best participant on Tour has averaged +0.16 “True strokes gained” per spherical over the past 20 years, although within the final two years, within the LIV-poaching period, that quantity has dropped to +0.05. However examine that with the No. 20 place on the KFT, which has averaged -0.36 True SG/spherical. By that measure, the identical high quality of golf may earn you a PGA Tour card from the KFT and lose you your job on the PGA Tour. (This was true with the earlier card format, too.) It additionally is sensible that KFT graduates typically have a tricky time maintaining their playing cards; the identical stage that obtained them to the Tour isn’t at all times ok to maintain them there.

Dahmen didn’t know these numbers, naturally. However he, like each Tour professional, is conscious that maintaining his job is just getting more durable.

“I’ve to enhance a ton,” he stated after his last spherical, then checked himself. “Not a ton, however I’ve to get higher to be within the prime 100.

“I’ve stated this for a very long time: my ball-striking is High 30 on this planet. I’ve simply obtained to get a bit of higher with the opposite issues and be extra in keeping with my strategy to Thursday and Friday rounds to play how I can play.”

That checks out: In arguably golf’s most necessary statistic, strategy play, Dahmen was No. 16 on Tour this season. He was wonderful off the tee, too, ending fortieth in strokes gained in that division. He really led the Tour in common proximity to the outlet, averaging six inches nearer than World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. However he struggled on Thursdays (145th in scoring common) in comparison with Fridays (14th, greater than a stroke and a half higher). He completed the season 181st in placing, too. In different phrases, there are many brilliant spots however room for enchancment, too.

“I confirmed how I can play below stress right now, like, bringing it,” Dahmen concluded. “And my Friday spherical as nicely, that was I feel one of many higher rounds on Friday at Seaside [when he rallied to make the cut]. Two of the largest stress moments of my profession I confirmed up. And I can take that going ahead and would possibly as nicely begin at Sony.”

It’s protected to say Dahmen will take his probabilities on the large Tour as an alternative.

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