RosterResource Chat – 11/29/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to our 2nd RosterResource Reside Chat! Thanks for becoming a member of us. Not so much has occurred since final week aside from the Snell/Kikuchi signings and largely unsurprising non-tenders. Nonetheless a variety of enjoyable subjects to debate. Right here we go …

Matt: Bellinger opting in has put a little bit of a wrinkle into Jed’s offseason plans. In case you had been Hoyer, how would you strategy enhancing the offense , whereas attempting to offer some room for a few of their top-100,guys to emerge?

Jon Becker: This actually wasn’t ideally suited for Hoyer, who will surely relatively have the Bellinger cash to spend elsewhere, to not point out the plate appearances. Bettering the offense might be powerful exterior of simply hoping for inside enhancements — the apparent lane for that might have been to commerce Hoerner, however his surgical procedure complicates issues — or buying and selling Bellinger himself (additionally troublesome!). A catcher with offensive upside (Sánchez, Higashioka, and so forth.) to pair with Amaya is the one place they will add a starter with out buying and selling another person.

NT: Have heard nothing concerning the Twins. The place do you suppose they should improve and the way do you suppose they do it? Any likelihood of a Correa commerce in your estimation?

Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose Correa might be traded. Would take a variety of creativity and both the Twins consuming a variety of $ or taking over one other large contract in return. And that’s powerful to do. Would like to see it. I feel there are a couple of others groups in the identical boat.

They’ve to determine a option to construct a group that’s aggressive whereas not relying on Correa/Buxton/Lewis. And something these guys can contribute is a bonus. Brooks Lee and among the different children stepping up might be big. Similar with pitching. A number of children who can take the following step.

Jon Becker: It’s positively going to be a quiet offseason for them, a lot in order that it wouldn’t in any respect shock me to see them rank thirtieth in FA spending. Inner enhancements + including on the margins (RH OF, a lefty reliever) will most likely be about it for them.

TD: How do you suppose the Padres will strategy the low season, contemplating that they’re at the moment up towards the luxurious tax?

Jon Becker: They don’t have a Juan Soto-level contract to maneuver to concurrently decrease payroll and infuse expertise; Arraez wouldn’t carry again all that a lot, Cronenworth and Bogaerts are near un-trade-able, and so forth. I feel they principally should decide to being a luxurious tax payor since we have already got them projected at $3M over (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres) and so they desperately want a catcher and left fielder, at minimal.

Visitor: Has there been any dialogue about assuming much less optimistic PAs within the Depth Chart projections? In that case, what’s the reasoning for this assumption?

Jason Martinez: I like discussing this matter however that is most likely not the perfect place to offer the perfect reply. Higher for extra particular gamers. However I’ll say that they are often much less optimistic for beginning pitching prospects. That’s as a result of we solely undertaking 100% regardless that it must be extra like 125% simply because we all know for certain there might be accidents. We simply can’t assume who will get harm. For place gamers, I feel they are often too optimistic as a result of my definition of “injury-prone” is perhaps totally different than others.

So I’d have a look at it the pitchers extra like a depth chart order. Who’s subsequent in line if one of many prime 5 is out for the season? For place gamers, when ought to Royce Lewis be thought of “injury-prone” and penciled in for 75-80% as an alternative of 85-90%? He was 25 years previous final season and had a couple of freak accidents so I didn’t suppose he was “injury-prone” but. I used to be most likely flawed.

BuccoFan: Do you agree that the Pirates could be higher off spending $30M on one or two distinction makers, as an alternative on 6 or 7 guys that inevitably will end round alternative degree?

Jon Becker: Undoubtedly, sure. The pitching seems to be fairly good however they badly want an precise menace in the course of the lineup, not one other Grandal + Taylor + Tellez “let’s hope for enhancements” offseason. Bringing McCutchen again really feel like a given and together with that I’d look into FA like Walker, Santander, and O’Neill, if I used to be Ben Cherington.

MilledgeReport: The Cardinals chosen Tink Therefore’s contract from AA this week. Do you guys anticipate he makes his MLB debut this yr, or is he somebody who wants extra time build up innings within the minors?

Jason Martinez: He’s proficient sufficient to power his method into the combination. However I doubt the Cardinals are relying on it. Solely 79.2 IP final season. Perhaps he can attain 130 IP this season. If that’s the case, do they bring about him up early till they should shut him down? Do they bring about him alongside very slowly in case he might help them within the 2nd half? Too many unknowns for the Cardinals to imagine both of these situations. I feel they only hope he continues to progress and never fear about when to name him up.

Jon Becker: I additionally don’t suppose “wants extra time build up innings” and “makes his MLB debut” should be mutually unique both. how the White Sox dealt with Crochet down the stretch, the Cardinals may name Therefore up when rosters increase to get him on an every-fifth-day schedule, however restrict him to 3 innings apiece.

Visitor: Have the Dodgers fully given up on Lux as a SS?

Jon Becker: It wouldn’t shock me if they provide him a shot there in Spring Coaching, however the throwing actually did look tough earlier than they flipped him and Betts on the very finish of Spring Coaching this previous season. With the ability to platoon at brief with Rojas and having Betts play 2B, the place he’d higher, would make issues simpler for certain. Or they may simply signal Adames, after all.

White Sox: Any specific low value free brokers that might be into some taking part in time? Crochet possible fetching two Prime 100s?

Jason Martinez: 2 Prime 100 prospects is what it might take to start out a dialog. Purple Sox should be the favourite however I feel there are a couple of different groups who could be prepared.

Free Agent market is stuffed with these low-cost veterans … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

However why would they need to play for the White Sox? Provided that it’s their greatest likelihood at common taking part in time. I feel there may be room for 2 bats (OF/DH), 2 SP, and some RPs.  Perhaps a David Peralta or Randal Grichuk. Perhaps a Cal Quantrill or Griffin Canning.

Jon Becker: I’ll additionally throw Sócrates Brito in there, solely as a result of Jon Heyman reported this morning he’s getting MLB curiosity, and veterans getting back from the KBO is enjoyable!

Seattle_54percenters: What reasonable choices for Mariners at 3B, 2B, and 1B/DH? Possession prefers income to profitable sadly:/

Jon Becker: I completely get why folks need to tie them to gamers like Alonso and Bregman, however Dipoto and possession have simply by no means operated in that stratosphere for FA. I do suppose they’ll nonetheless be taking a look at some good gamers, although. Gleyber, Profar, Joc, Conforto come to thoughts, and so they’ve obtained reported curiosity in a reunion with Justin Turner or Carlos Santana.

Matt (Oceanside): I noticed you have got Mookie listed because the Dodgers beginning SS. Together with his poor metrics there final season after the shock change from second. He had spent all of the final offseason prepping for a return to 2B- doesn’t that counsel that 2B is his most blatant place and both buying and selling Lux or attempting Lux once more at SS after an extended time away from the knee surgical procedures?

Jason Martinez: It’s a type of difficult issues to speak on the RR Opening Day roster projection. Mookie is taking part in infield. We all know that for certain. And I don’t suppose they’re going to offer Lux one other likelihood at SS, largely as a result of they’re the Dodgers and so they don’t have to enter the season with that degree of uncertainty at an vital spot. So what that projection tells you is that they don’t have their beginning SS on the roster right now.

The Ultimate Boss: Excessive College Reunion in Boston? Giolito + Fried and Flaherty?

Jon Becker: Undoubtedly believable contemplating they’ve been related to only about each large FA, and in the event that they don’t get Soto (or even when they do, I suppose) I may see them going large for one or two important SP. Must share the within jokes with Houck and Bello, although.

friday scaries: Tim Tawa and Joe Elbis struck me as fascinating 40 man additions for a possible playoff contender, what do you make of them?

Jason Martinez: Tawa has put up good offensive numbers within the higher minors and he can play a number of positions (INF and OF). So I feel he’s only a man who would possible be widespread within the R5 draft and the Dbacks didn’t need to lose him. Elbis might be in the same place. Not a prime prospect with the big-time arm, however seems to be like he has good command and groups may most likely see him as a succesful lengthy reliever in 2025.

Matt: Suppose Cubs extra prone to go FA signing of vet with out QO connected , as a way to improve SP, or will they appear to commerce mkt(SEA?)?

Jon Becker: If they will line up with the White Sox for Crochet or the Mariners for a starter, they actually have the upper-level influence prospects to make a commerce really feel just like the “simpler” lane. In the event that they’re not concerned with starters with QOs connected, the one prime of the rotation (or near it) choices are Flaherty, Eovaldi, or an upside play on Bieber, who gained’t be prepared for the beginning of the season.

David Stearns: Prediction on who the Mets signal this offseason? Is also Taylor actually gonna begin over Siri?

Jason Martinez: I do know it most likely looks like Siri would begin in CF, however he was actually, actually, actually dangerous in 2024. And in lots of elements of earlier seasons. And Taylor was excellent whereas taking part in usually on the finish of the season. I don’t suppose both will begin, although.

Jon and I each predicted final week that Soto would signal with the Mets, which might possible push Nimmo to CF. And in the event that they fall brief on Soto, I feel they’ll get somebody like Teoscar or Santander. I additionally suppose they’re going to re-sign Pete Alonso. Cohen isn’t messing round this offseason.

Jon Becker: And even when that is the outfielders they’ve obtained going into the season, I don’t suppose one’s going to play far more than the opposite. Siri hit fastballs higher than Taylor, Taylor hit all the pieces else higher, Marte will want days off, and so forth. If/once they do add, there are nonetheless going to be loads of PAs to go round, too.

Rywe: What do you suppose the Giants plan to do that offseason contemplating they’ve publicly mentioned they’re slicing payroll for 2025? I doubt Buster is gonna break the financial institution for a high-tier free agent and the Giants have so many holes to fill (SP, SS, 2B)

Jon Becker: The payroll slicing takes them out of the operating for Soto, with whom they didn’t even meet, but it surely gained’t forestall them from a lot else. They’ve nonetheless obtained about $50M to spend earlier than hitting 2024’s payroll, and there’s so much you are able to do with that (Adames + Fried are most likely someplace round there in mixed AAV, for instance, not that I anticipate them to do this). They may commerce Yaz to clear up some outfield taking part in time (and money) or commerce Wade and go greater for Alonso or Walker with loads of room to nonetheless say they reduce payroll.

Rywe: What function does Tyler Fitzgerald have this yr? He was subpar at SS final season however satisfactory at 2B. Utility man that fills in on off days for Jung-Hoo Lee?

Jason Martinez: Looks like essentially the most logical spot is 2B. Perhaps 1B in the event that they commerce LaMonte Wade Jr. He may be a Zobrist-type utilityman that performs on a regular basis at 4-5 totally different spots. But when they don’t get Adames or Kim, they could have to stay with him at SS.

Doc Estes: Do you have got a couple of favourite post-hype prospects which will make a major influence in 2025?

Jon Becker: Does Jackson Holliday depend as post-hype but? Issues couldn’t have gone a lot worse for him on the plate, and he regarded fairly tough at second base, too, however the toe faucet he labored in over the last week of the season appeared to work out nicely. I don’t suppose the O’s are going to amass anybody to dam him, both.

Jonathan: The place will Juan Soto be taking part in in 2025?

Jason Martinez: As I discussed a couple of questions in the past, Jon and I each predicted NYM in final week’s chat. However, realistically, why would he signal with any group aside from the Dodgers, Mets, or Yankees? Phillies most likely belong in that group, as nicely. He’s going to signal a 15-year deal and he is aware of that these groups are going to attempt to win yearly. Purple Sox may persuade him that they may do the identical. Perhaps the Blue Jays. May the Nats persuade him that they plan to spend $ and be aggressive for the following 15 years? Perhaps. However he’s Juan Soto. He doesn’t should go together with “perhaps”. He is aware of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees are going to spend each offseason to construct round him.

Jon Becker: That’s a giant a part of why I don’t suppose the Blue Jays have a lot of a shot until they blow all the opposite provides out of the water, which I don’t suppose goes to occur, both. The promoting level is… the final yr of Vlad Jr. and a potentially-closing window with out a lot in the best way of prospects on the best way?

Coach73: May You speculate on the groups that might use Gleyber torres?

Jon Becker: I feel there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity in him as a bounce again choice, regardless that he’s restricted to 2B and isn’t notably good at taking part in there, both. I discussed the Mariners earlier however the Purple Sox additionally make a variety of sense, and the Blue Jays are reportedly , too. Perhaps somebody just like the Marlins jumps in for a one-year provide if the multi-year contract provides aren’t trying nice.

Blair: What SP will the Mets attempt to purchase by way of commerce? Is Luis Castillo a sensible choice?

Jason Martinez: The Mariners are one of many few groups that may afford to commerce considered one of their greatest beginning pitchers so I feel it’s reasonable. However, even then, beginning rotation is the rationale they’re a reliable contender each season so perhaps they only don’t need to subtract from that. One potential very fascinating commerce choice, in my view, might be Dylan Stop if the Padres are handcuffed financially this offseason. The worth for beginning pitchers is loopy excessive and Stop could be inexpensive at round $13-14MM for one season.

Jon Becker: I uncared for to say Stop earlier after I mentioned they don’t have a Soto-level contract/participant to commerce, and Stop actually isn’t that, however he would carry again fairly the return. They may then flip round and signal a good starter for half as a lot. Martín Pérez pitched nicely there after the commerce, for instance.

Matt: Which of Cubs prepared or near-ready prospects deserve a legit shot this yr?

Jon Becker: Assuming well being I feel we’ll see Matt Shaw sooner or later this yr, perhaps early on Hoerner has a setback or the offense isn’t clicking. Ballesteros is one other one who may get the decision if Amaya/Thaiss are the 2 catchers and aren’t hitting. On the pitching facet, a wholesome Cade Horton most likely debuts sooner or later, too.

Ben: I’ve puzzled this for thus lengthy however how are the ability rankings measured on RR? I may by no means discover an correct correlation with WAR so I by no means knew.

Jason Martinez: For batters, it’s most likely nearer to wRC+ as a result of there isn’t any protection included within the system. After which the difficult half is to steadiness out counting stats and charge stats so small-sample measurement doesn’t get weighted too closely. After I created it a very long time in the past, the purpose was so {that a} reader may simply get a common concept of whether or not a participant was having season (general or final 7/14 days) or not after which analysis additional if crucial. I feel it really works nicely for that.

Eric: If the Mets signal Juan Soto, do you anticipate them to match their 2024 payroll in 2025 by regularly including?

Jon Becker: Even if you happen to determine Soto’s at $50M/yr, spending one other ~$125M on prime of that feels actually, actually laborious, however not not possible. Going aggressive on the rotation (Burnes + Manaea + Flaherty, or one thing like that) remains to be solely $75M or so.

Coach73: Do you see jonathan aranda making an influence this yr?

Jason Martinez: Sure, I do. That is his make-or-break season, in my view. He’s out of choices and the Rays haven’t actually given him a lot of a possibility. And accidents haven’t helped. As of now, I’ve him penciled in to the beginning lineup … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rays

I might love for the Padres to amass him, which is feasible if the Rays don’t actually imagine in him as an on a regular basis man. After all, I feel the Padres are obligated to have a couple of gamers from Tijuana on their roster. Tirso Ornelas, Alejandro Kirk, and Aranda would match that purpose for me.

Jason Martinez: Gonna wrap it up now. We’ll be again for an additional chat subsequent Friday on the similar time. Have a fantastic weekend!

Jon Becker: Thanks for stopping by, everybody!