RosterResource Chat – 11/22/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to the first-ever RosterResource Stay Chat at FanGraphs! A minimum of considered one of us (normally each) might be doing this each Friday at the moment.

In the event you’re acquainted with me or Jon, I believe you realize that we get pleasure from speaking about something roster-related and can at all times attempt to give a considerate reply to any query. That’s not at all times best for a stay chat the place you wish to reply as many questions as potential. However having each of us right here will permit us to nonetheless try this as a lot as potential as we alternate answering questions.

And right here we go …

Jon Becker: Howdy and welcome everybody! Let’s get going with our first query…

Kate: Braves appeared to favor Grant Holmes to lots of these different backend rotation choices all through the second half final 12 months.  You all are considering that modifications over the offseason?

Jon Becker: So I believe that is much less about Holmes in a vacuum and extra about Holmes in comparison with Anderson and Canning (the primary three rotation spots are locked in). They’re all out of choices, and Holmes is the one of many three with bullpen expertise, and he was nice in that function final 12 months.

Jason Martinez: Holmes earned a spot on the roster and his versatility offers the Braves an opportunity to discover the market throughout the offseason and likewise give their younger guys a glance within the spring. However looks as if he’s locked in as considered one of their 13 pitchers.

diadem: Is Johan Rojas’ .246 BA sufficient to maintain him enjoying? Platoon? vL or vR?

Jason Martinez: It was reported a couple of minutes in the past that Austin Hays might be non-tendered in order that clears issues up a bit for the second. However I don’t assume the Phillies wish to go into 2025 relying on Rojas for greater than 300-350 PA. I believe they’re going all in on Soto and, in the event that they fall quick, would nonetheless pursue one other impression bat and push Rojas to 4th OF or AAA.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: What’s the rule now on assured cash for arbitration-eligible gamers who’re tendered contracts? If the group tenders a contract, is any cash assured, or can the group reduce the participant with out penalty earlier than arbitration? How about after arbitration — is the contract assured then, and if that’s the case, how a lot?

Jon Becker: Nice nuts and bolts query, proper up my alley! If a participant is tendered a contract in the present day, then the group has to conform to a contract with him for 2025, both by agreeing by the deadline (January 10) or going to an arbitration listening to. Below the brand new CBA, contracts agreed to with out a listening to are totally assured on the level of signing, however contracts determined through listening to aren’t totally assured. We noticed this final 12 months with J.D. Davis, who the Giants took to arbitration and had been in a position to launch after they signed Matt Chapman, owing him simply 30 days of termination pay as a substitute of the total contract.

drhotdog: been debating this with different angels followers – when do you assume Christian Moore will get known as up?  when do you assume he ought to?

Jason Martinez: Primarily based on how rapidly they promoted Schanuel and Neto, there was hypothesis that Moore would get to the majors in 2024 earlier than he received damage. I nonetheless assume they plan on being aggressive, however it’s extra seemingly that his ETA is nearer to mid-2025 now. After all, he can change that if he’s crushing the ball in AAA.

Justin: What do you guys make of Profar’s market? Is he a lock to return to SD or do you assume an org offers him a giant contract?

Jon Becker: The contract predictions I’ve seen for him are nearly all within the vary of $45-$48 million for 3 years, and if that’s all it takes I believe there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity. That mentioned, if the Padres are proper there with everybody else (not a positive factor contemplating their payroll) I’d be stunned if he went elsewhere.

Invoice: Marte get 1st likelihood at 3b for reds? Or are they procuring?

Jason Martinez: I’ve already been requested about my Opening Day projection a number of instances … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/reds … as a result of I’ve Santiago Espinal at 3B and Marte in AAA. That speaks extra to Marte not doing sufficient to be penciled into the Opening Day roster and Espinal being the lone potential “stop-gap” if he doesn’t get non-tendered in the present day. Perhaps Jeimer performs 3B however protection is shaky. Primarily based on that, you realize what I believe. They’re in search of an improve and, even when they nonetheless imagine in Marte, will make him earn the job by placing up massive numbers in AAA.

Keaton Arneson: If I may solely draft one Cleveland minor leaguer SP for this season solely who would it not be? Nikhazy, Messick, Wilkinson, or Peterson?

Jon Becker: Until I’ve received important motive to imagine in any other case, I at all times aspect with the high-level man on the 40-man, which might be Nikhazy. Definitely doesn’t damage he had a very robust season, too.

Jason Martinez: I say you need to go together with the man nicknamed “Tugboat”.

Sox Fan: Crimson Sox package deal for Crochet and/or different SP commerce targets?

Jason Martinez: I believe they’ve nearly as good of an opportunity as any group on the market. Feels like they’re going to go massive in free company and don’t essentially have a transparent path for any of the “Massive 4” (Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Campbell). You most likely want 2 elite prospects to headline a package deal for Crochet and the Crimson Sox are one of many few groups to have the ability to try this and never subtract from their MLB roster.

GA Blood: The Reds mentioned they need Steer to spend extra time on the infield subsequent 12 months. Any pontifications on how his positional breakdown would find yourself wanting?

Jon Becker: This ties in properly with the Noelvi Marte query we received earlier: relying on how the offseason shakes out, it’s potential they slide Steer again to 3rd and Marte’s received to earn enjoying time elsewhere. One other risk is Matt McLain shifting to the outfield, the place he performed some within the AFL, and Steer slotting in at second.

Jon Becker: Proper now, we’ve got nearly all of Steer’s PT in left, based mostly extra on positional want: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?place=ALL&teamid=18

Colton: Assume the Pirates begin the season with Bubba on the roster? Now that they’ve misplaced the choose with Skenes not beginning the 12 months there

Jason Martinez: I don’t assume so. Not getting the draft choose will make them assume twice, however they’ve 5-6 good starters now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/pirates … and I’d assume they’ll simply observe the identical plan as Skenes in 2024. So perhaps a month in AAA and see how issues shake out. After all, Jared Jones pressured his approach onto the Opening Day roster due to how dominant he was in spring. However I believe Falter and Ortiz have earned the prospect to not less than begin the season within the rotation.

Kate: Playing cards give Nootbaar one other shot as an on a regular basis man or is he a platoon bat going ahead?

Jon Becker: Nootbaar’s at all times greater than held his personal in opposition to lefties (he was truly higher in opposition to them by wRC+ this 12 months), and with 2025 being a rebuild/retool/reload/no matter you wish to name it, there’s no motive to platoon him, neither is there an excellent platoon associate for him within the org proper now anyway.

alexis anthopolous: SS is an apparent spot for enchancment for the braves, and there’s loads of Adames/Kim hyperlinks, however who’re some viable commerce candidates?

Jason Martinez: I believe the Crimson Sox are going massive this offseason in free company however I ponder if buying and selling Trevor Story to clear some wage can be a part of that plan. It labored out with that Chris Sale man so perhaps ATL would have an interest.

Jon Becker: Jorge Mateo is an alternative choice if his elbow surgical procedure restoration goes okay, and the Twins may nicely store Carlos Correa, although they’d need to eat some money.

Sox Fan: The place does Juan Soto land and a contact prediction?

Jon Becker: I’m on the Mets prepare just because they will and presumably will provide essentially the most cash, and I don’t foresee him a reduction of probably tens of hundreds of thousands to return to the Yankees. I’ve his contract at a really aggressive 15y/$692M, and I believe he clears $600M no drawback.

Jason Martinez: I agree with Jon. I believe Steve Cohen is keen to outbid everybody. Whether or not he clears $600M or $700M will rely upon how aggressive different groups might be.

Matt: What sort of contract do y’all assume Hyeseong Kim will get?

Jason Martinez: My guess is 4-yr, $64M. I believe he will get greater than $15M per season due to how good he was in 2023. Took a step again in 2024, which is why I believe will probably be lower than 5 years. However there are simply not that many good shortstops on the market and solely 2 free brokers. And that helps his case quite a bit.

Oh sorry!!! I believed you had been asking about Ha-Seong!. Studying these too rapidly.

Jon Becker: Yeah, I believe that’s about proper for Ha-seong (backloaded with an choose out since he had shoulder surgical procedure, maybe?), although if I want a shortstop badly on opening day I’d relatively be aggressive for Adames, in fact. As for Hyeseong Kim (no relation, however they did play collectively!), I believe he does fairly much like Ha-seong’s first MLB contract of 4y/$28M, perhaps rather less since he’s received quite a bit much less energy potential.

Adam: Will the Phillies truly “shake up the roster” like they mentioned? If that’s the case, who do you see them buying and selling/shifting?

Jon Becker: I’m positive they’d love to maneuver Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, although shifting even considered one of them with out consuming a bunch of cash can be fairly miraculous, I’d say. When it comes to gamers who would truly garner an attention-grabbing return, I believe Bohm and Stott might be attention-grabbing, perhaps even Ranger Suárez. The one actual untouchables are most likely Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Wheeler, Sánchez, Nola, Realmuto.

Insert Witty Identify Right here: In the event you had been the Rox GM, how would you attempt to form the roster in a 5 12 months time-frame?

Jason Martinez: I at all times half-jokingly say that I might love for them to re-create the Blake Road Bombers after which I simply begin naming each dude that has plus-plus energy (Gary Sanchez, Gallo, and so on.) so as to add to their lineup. Even now, as a Padres fan, it looks as if no lead is protected there and their lineup is just not terrifying in any respect.

In all seriousness, I do assume they’re attempting to construct a group round younger pitching and protection. They weren’t horrible on the finish of final 12 months they usually do have a number of younger guys who’re shut (Dollander) and Marquez/Senzatela are again from TJ surgical procedure.

Jon Becker: Yeah, it looks as if they’re lastly concentrating on attention-grabbing strikeout-heavy pitchers like Dollander and Brody Brecht as a substitute of falling in love with each man who throws a sinker. A giant a part of constructing a group like that’s figuring out who to present massive contracts or extensions to, they usually’ve had some misses there (Bryant, Szenatela, all of the relievers a few years in the past, and so on.). The Tovar extension positive seems to be nice to date, although.

Jack: Do you assume that if the Crimson Sox had been provide Seattle a package deal of Duran and one of many massive 4, almost definitely Mayer, which may lastly get Dipoto to chunk on buying and selling considered one of his pitchers?

Jon Becker: Yeah, I’ve seen Duran-for-[insert non-Castillo starter here] bandied about as a hypothetical however I don’t assume that will fairly sway Dipoto to even take into account that a lot in any respect. in case you’re providing one man who’s a lineup pillar proper now and one other who might be one as quickly as midseason, I’d have a harder time saying no.

Lawless: How rapidly does Jordan Lawlar rise up and may he keep at SS or transfer to 3B?

Jason Martinez: I believe he’s the kind of prospect {that a} group will make house for as soon as he reveals that he’s prepared. Bringing Suarez again buys them some extra time in case he’s not, however I can see a situation the place he takes over at SS and Perdomo strikes right into a bench function. Or if the Dbacks actually love Perdomo an excessive amount of at SS, perhaps Suarez strikes into extra of a 1B/3B/DH function sooner or later and Lawlar performs 3B on most days.

mariners man: Josh Rojas non-tender — you want?

Jon Becker: We’ve gotten a few questions on Rojas particularly, and he’s a great instance about why the non-tender deadline being this early within the offseason makes for some powerful choices. He’s a wonderfully ample — if uninspiring — common, however in non-tendering him now you run the danger of hanging out on different choices and never having the ability to do significantly better. Having Austin Shenton round helps, although, so I may see this one going both approach forward of the 8 EST deadline.

diadem: Will Rodriguez and Bart cut up duties in 2025? What % of enjoying time for every.

Jason Martinez: In case anybody doesn’t bear in mind, Endy Rodriguez was on monitor to be the Pirates’ beginning catcher in 2024 earlier than injuring his elbow final winter. And he can hit! So will probably be good to have him again. However with Bart wanting like an excellent choice to play a majority of video games at catcher, they will ease Rodriguez again. So long as there’s some uncertainty at 1B/DH, they need to have the power to play each much more than some catching tandems. However I can see a 50/50 cut up so long as Endy is wholesome with each getting DH at-bats.

Jon Becker: We simply received a query in about Henry Davis and it additionally ties again to an earlier query about commerce candidate catchers: Davis undoubtedly is one. May very well be a reverse-Joey Bart the place Davis himself finds much more success away from Pittsburgh.

Visitor: What’s your evaluation of the Angels’ strikes this offseason to date?  They’ve been very energetic, however seemingly with none impression.

Jon Becker: That is mainly the Angels’ M.O. for current offseasons, going for names over expertise, although not less than with Newman, Hendricks, and d’Arnaud they’re not likely taking enjoying time away from somebody extra attention-grabbing. Locking Soler in on day one of many offseason was … attention-grabbing … although.

#1MetsFan: What number of ABs does Ronnie Mauricio get in 2025? O/U 200.5

Jason Martinez: I’ll go together with the “over”, though I don’t assume they’re going to plan their offseason round him being a giant a part of the group. However essential to recollect, previous to his harm, that he’s such a great prospect that there was discuss shifting him to 2B, 3B, or LF simply to get him within the lineup. I believe he must re-establish himself in AAA after which he may power himself into the image once more.

Jon Becker: I’ll take the over, solely as a result of it’s such an extended season. Have a troublesome time seeing him crack the Opening Day roster assuming the Mets are as aggressive as we anticipate, although.

Jon Becker: And with that, we’re all set for this week! Thanks everybody for stopping by and we’ll see you subsequent Friday. Wishing a Glad Thanksgiving to those that have a good time!

Jason Martinez: We’re going to wrap it up for in the present day since Jon and I’ll have a busy afternoon updating rosters and payrolls as soon as non-tenders are introduced. Sometimes, I believe 90 minutes is feasible on most Fridays.

Thanks for becoming a member of us and bear in mind that you would be able to at all times ship us questions on BlueSky (rosterresource.fangraphs.com / @jon-becker.com) or Twitter (@JasonRRMartinez / @jonbecker_).