The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing take a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Corridor of Fame poll. Initially written for the 2016 election at SI.com, it has been up to date to replicate latest voting outcomes in addition to extra analysis. For an in depth introduction to this 12 months’s poll, and different candidates within the sequence, use the software above; an introduction to JAWS might be discovered right here. All WAR figures consult with the Baseball-Reference model except in any other case indicated.
Billy Wagner was the last word underdog. Undersized and from each a damaged dwelling and an impoverished rural background, he channeled his frustrations into throwing extremely exhausting — together with his left hand, regardless of being a pure righty, for he broke his proper arm twice as a toddler. Scouts neglected him as a result of he wasn’t wherever shut to 6 ft tall, however they couldn’t disregard his dominance over collegiate hitters utilizing a mid-90s fastball. The Astros made him a first-round decide, and as soon as he was transformed to a aid position, his velocity went even greater.
Because of excellent lower-body energy, coordination, and extraordinary vary of movement, the 5-foot-10 Wagner was capable of attain 100 mph with consistency — 159 occasions in 2003, in accordance with The Invoice James Handbook. Utilizing a tough slider discovered from teammate Brad Lidge, he saved blowing the ball by hitters into his late 30s to such an extent that he owns the document for the best strikeout price of any pitcher with at the least 900 innings. He was nonetheless dominant when he walked away from the sport following the 2010 season, contemporary off posting a career-best ERA.
Missing the longevity of Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman, Wagner by no means set any saves data and even led his league as soon as, and his innings complete is nicely beneath these of each enshrined reliever. Whereas Hoffman’s standing as the previous all-time saves chief helped him get elected in 2018, Wagner — who created comparable worth in his profession — has confronted main hurdles to getting acknowledged. However due to his extraordinary price stats, he now stands on the doorstep of Cooperstown. Over the previous 5 election cycles, his share of the vote has greater than quadrupled, from 16.7% in 2019 to 73.8% in ’24, to the purpose that he missed election final 12 months by simply 5 votes. He’s now in his ultimate 12 months on the writers’ poll and, fortunately, a lot nearer to the 75% mark than the handful of latest candidates whose elections went right down to their final at-bat, so to talk, particularly Tim Raines (2017), Edgar Martinez (2019), Larry Walker (2020), and Gary Sheffield (in need of the mark final 12 months, alas).
2025 BBWAA Candidate: Billy Wagner
Pitcher | WAR | WPA | WPA/LI | R-JAWS | IP | SV | ERA | ERA+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Billy Wagner | 27.7 | 29.1 | 17.9 | 24.9 | 903 | 422 | 2.31 | 187 |
Avg HOF RP | 39.1 | 30.1 | 20.0 | 29.7 |
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
William Edward Wagner was born in Marion, Virginia, on July 25, 1971, into circumstances — as documented in a September 20, 1999 Sports activities Illustrated profile by Michael Bamberger — that had been hardly idyllic. Father William “Hotsey” Wagner, an all-county pitcher, married his 16-year-old bride, Yvonne Corridor, on the day he graduated highschool. Billy was born 13 months after they wed; two weeks later, Hotsey left for Saigon, the place he spent 9 months monitoring the urinalyses of U.S. troopers about to return dwelling from the Vietnam Conflict. His marriage collapsed after he returned dwelling in 1976. Billy and his youthful sister bounced round within the care of his divorced (and remarried, and re-divorced) mother and father and each units of grandparents. Poverty was a relentless, meals stamps a humiliation; “[a] few crackers with peanut butter and a glass of water” was a typical breakfast.
Whereas enjoying soccer at age seven, Wagner broke his proper (throwing) arm when a buddy fell on it; six weeks later, simply after the forged was eliminated, he broke it once more. Throughout this time, he discovered to throw left-handed, turning his baseball glove inside out and channeling his anger at his instability and grim environment into throwing a ball along with his maternal grandparents’ home, doing it so exhausting that items of aluminum siding fell off. Lastly, simply earlier than he turned 15, he went to dwell with Jack and Sally Lamie, his uncle and aunt, in Tannersville, 19 miles away. By that time, Billy had fallen a 12 months behind at school as a result of his unstable dwelling scenario, however as soon as coaches and directors at Tazewell Excessive Faculty (the closest highschool, an hour away) agreed that his throwing was a hazard to his middle-school friends, they “socially promoted” him into highschool.
Although he grew to only 5-foot-5 and 135 kilos in highschool, Wagner starred as each a middle fielder and pitcher whose fastball might attain 86 mph. As a senior in 1990, he hit .451, stole 23 bases, and struck out 116 in 46 innings with a 1.52 ERA. Scouts had been postpone by his measurement, so he adopted cousin Jeff Lamie to Ferrum School, a Division III faculty, with the intention of enjoying soccer — till the coach noticed him throw a baseball. At Ferrum, Wagner grew to 5-foot-9, gained 40 kilos, and boosted his velocity to 93 mph. As a sophomore in 1992, he allowed 9 hits in 51 innings and set an NCAA document with 19.1 strikeouts per 9. Whereas dominating the collegiate Cape Cod League, he struck out the facet within the league’s All-Star sport with out permitting a foul ball. The Astros selected him with the twelfth decide within the 1993 draft.
By now 5-foot-10 and 170 kilos, Wagner started his skilled profession as a starter, battling management points however whiffing greater than a batter per inning at each cease and making Baseball America’s High 100 Prospects record in 1994 (78th), ’95 (seventeenth), and ’96 (14th). In 1995, he posted a 2.89 ERA in hitter-friendly Double- and Triple-A environments, with 9.7 strikeouts per 9 in 146.1 innings. All of the extra spectacular was that his efficiency got here amid tragedy, as his spouse’s father — who had emerged as a father determine in Wagner’s life — and stepmother had been brutally murdered in Might, simply days after Wagner had been added to the Astros’ 40-man roster in anticipation of a late-season call-up.
Wagner made his main league debut on September 13, 1995 in Shea Stadium; mustering a fastball close to 100 mph, he retired the Mets’ Rico Brogna on a fly ball earlier than being lifted for a pinch-hitter by Astros supervisor Terry Collins. After 12 begins for Triple-A Tucson in 1996, the fire-balling Wagner, 24, joined the Astros’ bullpen in early June and supplanted the injured Todd Jones because the staff’s nearer after the All-Star break. He transformed 9 saves in 13 probabilities, ending the 12 months with a 2.44 ERA and 11.7 strikeouts per 9 (but in addition 5.2 walks) in 51.2 innings. The Astros carried a two-and-a-half sport division lead into September, however a 4–16 tailspin to start out the month misplaced them the division and in the end price Collins his job.
Underneath new supervisor Larry Dierker and powered by the “Killer B’s” — Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio — the Astros made the playoffs in every of the subsequent three seasons, with Wagner rising as one of many sport’s most dominant closers. He saved 23 video games with a 2.85 ERA and 14.4 strikeouts per 9 in 1997, setting a document for a pitcher with at the least 50 innings. Regardless of lacking greater than three weeks in 1998 after taking a Kelly Stinnett line drive off his head, he topped that strikeout price in every of the subsequent two seasons and trimmed each his stroll price and ERA. In 1999, he whiffed 14.9 per 9 and walked 2.8 en path to a 1.57 ERA with 39 saves in 74.2 innings. Not solely did Wagner make his first All-Star staff, however he additionally tied teammate Jose Lima for fourth in a very Houston-heavy Cy Younger vote; ex-Astro Randy Johnson gained, and Mike Hampton completed second. Wagner’s 3.8 WAR led all Nationwide League relievers and practically topped the three.9 he had accrued within the earlier three seasons.
It was that September when Bamberger caught up with “the Astros’ smaller-than-life nearer” who “would tip the scales at his listed weight of 180 kilos solely after a 3rd serving to of grits,” exploring his tough previous in an try to seek out out, “The place does he get his warmth?”
He throws fastball after fastball, one four-seamer after one other, all within the A to A-plus vary. The motion on his pitches is depraved. Batters communicate of heaters that begin at their heads and end on the knees, on the surface nook of the plate. On Wagner you’ll be able to guess fastball. (He throws solely occasional sliders and changeups.) What you’ll be able to’t do is hit it.
…It’s true that Wagner has excellent mechanics, which is superb when you think about that he’s a pure right-hander … Additionally it is true that he drives off the rubber in addition to any pitcher since Tom Seaver; his legs are thick and heavy for a person of his in any other case abnormal physique. It’s true that he has a exceptional means to throw first-pitch strikes. However these information alone don’t start to reply the query.
In February 1999, Wagner had signed a three-year, $10.1 million extension, overlaying his arbitration years. For as robust as his 1999 was, his 2000 was a near-total loss: Wagner struggled together with his management in 27.2 innings earlier than admitting he had been throwing in ache and present process season-ending surgical procedure to restore a torn flexor tendon and take away scar tissue. With their bullpen a rubbish hearth, the Astros sank to 72–90, however each Wagner and the staff rebounded in 2001. He made his second All-Star staff, saved 39 video games, whiffed 11.3 per 9, and completed with 2.4 WAR; the Astros gained 93 video games and their fourth NL Central title in 5 years. Alas, they had been once more ousted within the first spherical by the Braves, the staff that had additionally completed so in 1997 and ’99.
By each WAR and ERA, Wagner’s efficiency continued to enhance in 2002 and ’03. Within the latter season — his third All-Star marketing campaign — he set profession highs with 86 innings and 44 saves en path to a 1.78 ERA, 11.0 strikeouts per 9, and three.4 WAR, the final of which edged John Smoltz for the lead amongst NL relievers. On June 11, 2003, Wagner helped to make baseball historical past when he closed out a mixed no-hitter of six pitchers towards the Yankees within the Bronx — the primary time New York had been no-hit since 1958. Two pitches into the second inning, starter Roy Oswalt needed to depart as a result of a groin damage; relievers Pete Munro, Kirk Saarloos, Lidge, and Octavio Dotel carried the baton to Wagner, who struck out Jorge Posada and Bubba Trammell, then coated first base on Hideki Matsui’s game-ending groundout.
After lacking the playoffs in 2002, the Astros battled with the Cubs for the NL Central title in ’03, however a 3–6 document over the ultimate 9 video games price them a one-and-a-half sport lead. Whereas Wagner took a kind of losses, it was solely the second time over his ultimate 36 appearances that he allowed a run. After the season, he criticized proprietor Drayton McLane for the staff’s failure to extend payroll to reinforce their rotation. “It’s going to be a tape job,” he mentioned after the staff’s ultimate sport, seeking to subsequent season. “It’s not like we’re going on the market and getting any marquee pitchers.”
Wagner can be confirmed fairly improper, however he had punched his personal ticket out of city. Owed $8 million for 2004 with a $9 million choice for ’05, he was traded to Philadelphia on November 3 for a trio of pitchers (Ezequiel Astacio, Taylor Buchholz, and Brandon Duckworth) who mixed to ship -3.5 WAR as Astros. Their sorry manufacturing was greater than offset by Houston’s marquee free-agent pitchers: Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. Although the latter was restricted to fifteen begins in 2004 as a result of elbow surgical procedure, the previous gained his seventh Cy Younger award. The revamped Astros, who additionally added Carlos Beltrán for the 2004 stretch run, reached the NLCS that season and the World Collection in 2005. “I simply want he’d completed this once we had been a sport out final season,” mentioned Wagner of McLane’s spending.
Although he joined a staff that was starting to assemble the roster that may dominate the NL East from 2007 to ’11, Wagner’s two years in Philadelphia had been lower than fulfilling. Groin and rotator cuff strains price him two and a half months in 2004, limiting him to 48.1 innings. He rebounded with one other All-Star season in 2005 (1.51 ERA, 38 saves, 2.7 WAR), however his mouth continued to enlarge headlines. Amid a 4–12 July skid, he criticized the staff’s depth, saying that the Phillies give up after they fell behind and that “we ain’t acquired an opportunity to get there proper now,” in reference to the postseason. Whereas the Phillies completed with 88 wins beneath new supervisor Charlie Manuel, they fell one sport in need of the Wild Card and two in need of the division title. Wagner spent the final third of the season in silence after receiving no help in a players-only assembly, then blasted his ex-teammates from afar after departing. Years later, he lamented, “I discovered lots about criticism and the way to not be a pacesetter after I was traded … I started to show into somebody I didn’t wish to be.”
A free agent for the primary time, the 34-year-old Wagner landed a four-year, $43 million take care of the Mets and sparked an inter-borough controversy: His entry tune, Metallica’s “Enter Sandman,” was already in use by the Yankees’ Rivera, although Wagner’s 1996 adoption predated Rivera by three years. The tune acquired a exercise in Queens: Wagner saved 40 of the Mets’ 97 wins as they claimed their first NL East title in 20 years. Accompanied by a sometimes low 2.24 ERA, his save complete ranked second within the league, the best he would ever end, and his 11.7 strikeouts per 9 was his highest mark since 1999. He notched the primary three saves of his postseason profession because the Mets downed the Dodgers and gained the NLCS opener towards the Cardinals, however he took the loss in Sport 2 by permitting three ninth-inning runs, then gave up two runs defending a 4–0 ninth-inning lead in Sport 6. In Sport 7, supervisor Willie Randolph left setup man Aaron Heilman in for his second inning of labor within the ninth inning of a tie sport; Wagner might solely watch as he served up a decisive two-run homer to Yadier Molina.
That was as shut as Wagner ever acquired to a World Collection. Although he pitched very nicely for many of 2007, saving 26 of his first 27 probabilities with a 1.28 ERA, he posted a 6.91 ERA from August 21 onward, a span of 14 appearances. That Mets staff gained infamy for blowing a seven-game lead with 17 video games to go, shedding out on a playoff spot on the season’s ultimate day, however Wagner’s solely blown save in that span got here in a New York win. The staff wound up exterior the playoff image on the ultimate day in 2008 as nicely, partially as a result of Wagner’s August 2 forearm pressure led to Tommy John surgical procedure.
When the Mets signed Francisco Rodríguez to a three-year, $37 million deal that winter, the writing was on the wall for the rehabbing Wagner. After making two late August appearances for the staff, he waived his no-trade clause and was dealt to the Pink Sox, who in flip promised to not decide up his $8 million choice for 2010, granting him full freedom in selecting the place to pitch the next season. He was robust in 15 appearances for Boston, placing out 22 in simply 13.2 innings for a staff that gained the Wild Card however was swept out of the primary spherical by the Angels.
In December 2009, Wagner signed a one-year, $7 million take care of Atlanta, and at 38, he pitched in addition to ever, posting a career-low 1.43 ERA and placing out 13.5 per 9 (his highest price since 1999) in 69.1 innings en path to 2.5 WAR for yet one more Wild Card staff that made a first-round exit. That season included two milestones as nicely. On June 25 towards the Tigers, he struck out the facet on 10 pitches and have become the fifth pitcher to achieve 400 saves in his profession. On August 27, he struck out Giancarlo Stanton (then referred to as Mike) for his 1,one hundred and seventieth profession strikeout, surpassing Jesse Orosco for the document amongst left-handed relievers:
Regardless of triggering a vesting choice for 2011, Wagner adopted by with a choice introduced in Might to retire at season’s finish to spend extra time together with his household. No pitcher has ever walked away from his profession following a season of at the least 50 innings with a decrease ERA or the next strikeout price.
…
Wagner holds another distinctions as nicely. Amongst pitchers with at the least 900 innings, his strikeout price, whether or not expressed as 11.92 per 9 or as 33.2% of all batters confronted, is the very best in historical past. Previously two seasons, Kenley Jansen (12.66 per 9, 35.4%) and Craig Kimbrel (14.06 per 9, 38.8%) have claimed that distinction on the 800-inning stage, which was the cutoff I had used for pre-2024 variations of this text. Of the pitchers who’ve reached 900 innings, Blake Snell (11.23 per 9), Chris Sale (11.09), and Robbie Ray (11.07) are the next-closest on a per-nine-innings foundation, and Jacob deGrom (31.0%) is subsequent on a share foundation, adopted by Sale (30.6%) and Snell (30.2%). With greater charges in fewer innings, Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman (14.76 Ok/9 and 40.0% in 760 innings) would possibly supplant Wagner on the 900-inning stage, however neither is assured to final that lengthy; the previous was designated for project in mid-September by the playoff-bound Orioles, and the latter has steered his profession to the brink on multiple event.
On the 900-inning stage, Wagner’s .187 opponent batting common is the lowest in historical past, 17 factors higher than the subsequent Twentieth- or Twenty first-century pitcher, Nolan Ryan, although if we decrease the bar to 800 innings, Kimbrel (.169) and Jansen (.183) sneak previous him. Once more utilizing the 900-inning cutoff, Rivera is the one post-1920 pitcher with a decrease ERA (2.21) or greater ERA+ (205) than Wagner’s 2.31 and 187. His 2.73 FIP is the third-lowest in that span, behind solely deGrom (2.59) and Sandy Koufax (2.69). In the meantime, his 0.998 WHIP is the third-lowest all-time behind dead-ball period hurler Addie Joss (0.968) and deGrom (0.994). Wagner’s complete of 422 saves, in the meantime, ranks eighth on the all-time record behind Rivera (652), Hoffman (601), Lee Smith (478), Jansen (447), Kimbrel (440), Rodriguez (437), and John Franco (424); the 2 lively pitchers in that group surpassed him this previous season.
Is {that a} Corridor of Fame profession? As I’ve specified by connection to the latest instances of Smith and Rivera, with such a restricted variety of relievers within the Corridor — the aforementioned pair, each elected in 2019, introduced the overall to eight — it’s tough to say, significantly given the position’s evolution over the previous half-century. Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, and Goose Gossage had been all multi-inning firemen who racked up greater innings totals than the enshrined relievers who adopted of their wake. Bruce Sutter labored a number of innings as nicely, although typically solely when his staff had a lead slim sufficient to provide a save alternative. Dennis Eckersley, who spent the primary half of his profession as a starter, turned the mannequin for the one-inning nearer we all know at the moment. Even excluding his 3,285.2 innings, the opposite seven relievers elected averaged 1,496 innings, whereas Wagner threw solely 903, nicely beneath even Hoffman’s 1,089.1 and Sutter’s 1,042. The place nearly all of the saves of Wilhelm, Fingers, Gossage, and Sutter had been longer than an inning, as had been 27% of Eckersley’s, solely 9% of Wagner’s had been.
Whereas one can definitely make the case that, primarily based on price stats, Wagner was extra dominant than any of them, his shortfall of innings presents an issue when translating to a worth measure corresponding to WAR. That mentioned, he was a lot extra dominant than Hoffman that the 2 are tied at 23.7 JAWS, with Hoffman’s slight edge in profession WAR (28.0–27.7) offset by Wagner’s slight edge in peak (19.8–19.4). Both approach, each are considerably beneath the requirements on the place even when I exclude Eckersley. The opposite seven elected relievers averaged 35.8 profession WAR, 23.6 peak WAR, and 30.1 JAWS. One can’t actually justify Wagner’s inclusion in Cooperstown on the premise of these metrics alone.
That doesn’t imply it’s sport over, although. As anybody who has been following me since I launched the metric that turned JAWS for the 2004 poll is aware of — at a degree when Sutter was nonetheless two years away from election, and Gossage 4 years away — I’ve by no means been fully glad with the best way it handles relievers. Through the years, I’ve employed varied hybrid metrics in an effort to discover a stability between one thing descriptive (what does this say about who’s within the Corridor?) and one thing prescriptive (what is that this telling us about who must be in?). Upon bringing my Corridor analyses to FanGraphs for the 2019 poll, I started utilizing one such hybrid measure in evaluating Wagner, and with the assistance of the nice of us at Baseball Reference, R-JAWS (Reliever JAWS) was formalized in time for the 2022 election cycle, that means that their computer systems now do the mathematics as an alternative of mine.
Whereas the model of WAR utilized in JAWS options an adjustment for leverage — the quantitatively higher influence on profitable and shedding {that a} reliever has on the finish of the ballgame than a starter does earlier — to assist account for the diploma of issue, it’s not the one approach to measure reliever worth. Win Chance Added (WPA) is a context-sensitive measure that accounts for the incremental improve (or lower) within the probabilities of profitable produced in every plate look given the inning, rating, and base-out scenario. For a reliever, single-season WPA scales equally to single-season WAR, which is to say that it’s uncommon that one is value greater than three wins in a single 12 months, by both measure. WPA might be moreover adjusted utilizing a pitcher’s common leverage index (aLI) for a stat variably referred to as situational wins or context-neutral wins (known as WPA/LI).
Lengthy story brief, each of those at the moment are within the sauce. R-JAWS is the typical of a reliever’s WAR (together with his time as a starter and as a hitter) in addition to his WPA and his WPA/LI. Together with these final two stats helps to raise pitchers for what they did as relievers relatively than as starters, which is what we’re after, as a result of Corridor voters typically aren’t geared towards recognizing swingmen or setup relievers. Not solely can you will discover R-JAWS on the aforementioned Baseball Reference Reduction Pitcher JAWS Leaders web page, nevertheless it’s additionally now the default technique for sorting (you’ll be able to nonetheless kind by WAR, WAR7, and JAWS as nicely).
Wagner, who’s tied for nineteenth in old-school JAWS, ranks a good seventh in WPA amongst relievers at 29.1 and a good higher fifth in WPA/LI at 17.9. That places him proper within the combine with the opposite enshrined relievers in R-JAWS:
High Relievers by R-JAWS
Rk | Participant | WAR | WPA | WPA/LI | R-JAWS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mariano Rivera+ | 56.3 | 56.6 | 33.6 | 48.8 |
2 | Dennis Eckersley+ | 62.1 | 30.8 | 25.8 | 39.6 |
3 | Hoyt Wilhelm+ | 46.8 | 30.4 | 26.3 | 34.3 |
4 | Wealthy Gossage+ | 41.1 | 32.5 | 14.8 | 29.5 |
5 | Trevor Hoffman+ | 28.0 | 34.2 | 19.3 | 27.1 |
6 | Billy Wagner | 27.7 | 29.1 | 17.9 | 24.9 |
7 | Joe Nathan | 26.7 | 30.6 | 15.8 | 24.4 |
8 | Firpo Marberry | 30.6 | 25.5 | 16.8 | 24.3 |
9 | Tom Gordon | 35.0 | 21.3 | 14.5 | 23.6 |
10 | Kenley Jansen | 21.9 | 29.0 | 17.3 | 22.7 |
11 | Jonathan Papelbon | 23.3 | 28.3 | 13.4 | 21.7 |
12 | Ellis Kinder | 28.9 | 23.8 | 11.7 | 21.5 |
13 | Francisco Rodríguez | 24.2 | 24.4 | 14.7 | 21.1 |
14 | Lee Smith+ | 28.9 | 21.3 | 12.7 | 21.0 |
15 | Stu Miller | 27.0 | 20.5 | 13.5 | 20.7 |
16 | David Robertson | 21.7 | 23.9 | 14.5 | 20.0 |
17 | Craig Kimbrel | 22.3 | 22.6 | 13.9 | 19.6 |
18 | Tom Henke | 22.9 | 21.3 | 13.9 | 19.4 |
19 | Dan Quisenberry | 24.6 | 20.7 | 12.5 | 19.3 |
20 | Rollie Fingers+ | 25.6 | 16.2 | 15.1 | 19.0 |
21 | Tug McGraw | 21.8 | 21.5 | 13.1 | 18.8 |
22 | Bobby Shantz | 34.6 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 18.4 |
23 | Aroldis Chapman | 20.8 | 21.3 | 13.1 | 18.4 |
24 | John Hiller | 30.4 | 14.6 | 9.4 | 18.1 |
25 | Bruce Sutter+ | 24.1 | 18.2 | 11.9 | 18.1 |
Corridor avg w/Eckersley | 39.1 | 30.0 | 19.9 | 29.7 | |
Corridor avg w/o Eckersley | 35.8 | 29.9 | 19.1 | 28.3 |
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
R-JAWS is the typical of WAR, WPA, and WPA/LI.
+ = Corridor of Famer
Previous to the election of Rivera, Wagner was simply 0.1 beneath the Corridor common excluding Eckersley, and whereas his standing relative to that common has slipped, he’s the highest reliever exterior the Corridor in that mixed measure. I believe that’s value lots on this context.
These leverage-based measures present a a lot stronger foundation for voting for Wagner than JAWS. That goes doubly when taken alongside his different accomplishments and overlooking his unpleasant 10.03 ERA in 11.2 postseason innings for groups that had been typically within the midst of being steamrolled.
On the outset of his candidacy, it was clear that Wagner confronted an uphill battle to get to Cooperstown. Overshadowed by Hoffman when the 2 debuted in 2016 and misplaced in a sea of certified candidates at different positions as nicely — 11 exceeded the JAWS customary that 12 months — he obtained simply 10.5% of the vote. On the time, that was a decrease debut share than any participant elected by the writers since they returned to annual balloting in 1966, however Scott Rolen, who obtained simply 10.2% in 2018 but was elected 5 years later, has since set a brand new customary for what’s doable.
Wagner roughly ran in place over his subsequent two cycles, however on the 2019 poll, as visitors started to skinny out a bit, he climbed to 16.7%, then posted annual beneficial properties of 15.0%, 14.7%, 4.6%, 17.1%, and 5.7% during the last 5 cycles. Per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark, that 17.1% bounce was the most important for any reliever, surpassing the 15.5% improve by Fingers in 1992.
Heading into the 2024 election cycle, these beneficial properties appeared as if they could put Wagner excessive — however may not. As I famous final 12 months, amongst post-1966 candidates who obtained between 65% and 70% and nonetheless had eligibility remaining, 14 of 31 had been elected the subsequent 12 months, and 21 of 31 inside two years. Wagner obtained 78.3% of the votes from ballots printed earlier than the election announcement, however simply 55.1% on unpublished ballots, and barely missed the mark.
The excellent news is that historical past remains to be on his facet. Of the final 24 occasions a candidate obtained at the least 70% however lower than 75% and nonetheless had eligibility remaining, that candidate was elected the subsequent 12 months 21 occasions, with the exceptions being Jim Bunning (twice) and Curt Schilling. The previous was completed in as soon as by a barrage of clean ballots and as soon as by a crowd of stronger candidates, whereas the latter discovered more and more intricate and offensive methods to sabotage his personal candidacy as he approached 75%. Significantly given the urgency created by this being the ultimate 12 months of his candidacy, I don’t anticipate Wagner falling brief.
Right here’s the latest historical past of how candidates who obtained at the least 50% of their ninth 12 months of eligibility fared of their Tenth and ultimate 12 months:
Latest Tenth-12 months BBWAA Candidates
Participant | ninth Yr | % | Tenth Yr | % | Acquire |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Billy Wagner | 2024 | 73.8% | 2025 | TBD | TBD |
Curt Schilling | 2021 | 71.1% | 2022 | 58.6% | -12.4% |
Edgar Martinez | 2018 | 70.4% | 2019 | 85.4% | 15.0% |
Tim Raines | 2016 | 69.8% | 2017 | 86.0% | 16.2% |
Barry Bonds | 2021 | 61.8% | 2022 | 66.0% | 4.1% |
Roger Clemens | 2021 | 61.6% | 2022 | 65.2% | 3.6% |
Gary Sheffield | 2023 | 55.0% | 2024 | 63.9% | 8.9% |
Larry Walker | 2019 | 54.6% | 2020 | 76.6% | 22.0% |
Whereas seeing that solely three of the earlier seven had been elected in 12 months 10 may be unsettling, by that time it was clear that Bonds and Clemens weren’t going to achieve 75% as a result of their hyperlinks to performance-enhancing medication, and Schilling was taking the primary scorched earth electoral marketing campaign in Corridor of Fame historical past to its deserved conclusion. Three of the opposite 4 gained entry, including a mean of 15.5%, and it’s value remembering that Sheffield was held again to a point by his BALCO connection.
Add to that the truth that Wagner is already nearer to 75% than any of those latest predecessors, and I believe we’ll be listening to his title referred to as on January 21.
Due to the crowded subject of candidates in his early years of eligibility, I didn’t embrace Wagner on my digital poll till 2019, then added him to my precise poll in ’21, and he’s been there ever since. Whereas JAWS guides my course of, I’ve remained significantly open-minded relating to its dealing with of relievers over time, looking for other ways to judge them, and Wagner’s dominance in so many classes is tough to disregard, as is his underdog story. He’s no Rivera, however he’s hardly misplaced in a gaggle that features Hoffman, Smith, Fingers, and Sutter. With Jansen, Chapman, and Kimbrel all struggling at factors of their mid-30s to the purpose that solely one of many three spent all of 2024 as a full-time nearer, we will recognize how exhausting it’s to keep up the extent of efficiency that Wagner did, proper as much as the top of his profession. Perhaps 15 years from now we’ll be speaking about Emmanuel Clase on this context, however Wagner stands as the very best reliever exterior the Corridor. To those eyes, that’s value a vote.