Your Annual Adolis García Examine-in

I’ve been working at FanGraphs lengthy sufficient — greater than two full years now — that I’ve began to construct a monitor file. By that I imply that after I get one thing proper, I can return and gloat about it.

In February 2023, I wrote about Rangers outfielder Adolis García: An influence-over-hit participant who struggled to get on base and didn’t play a premium place. Some years in the past, I used to be at a Starbucks a pair blocks from my home after I noticed somebody who seemed like an ex-girlfriend of mine a couple of tables away. On additional reflection, I don’t assume it was actually her, however I packed up my laptop, downed my macchiato, went residence, and by no means got here again. You possibly can by no means be too cautious.

I might ordinarily keep away from gamers like García with even better alacrity. However, I reasoned that the Rangers, having invested far more closely in pitching than hitting, wanted their proper fielder to be at his greatest in the event that they hoped to attain something in 2023. And García had made excellent contact the earlier season, however had not been rewarded accordingly. So regardless of my trepidation relating to his general talent set, I predicted that García would take a step ahead.

This a lot he did, and extra. García not solely packed on 50 factors of slugging share, going from 27 residence runs to 39, he practically doubled his stroll fee and took his OBP from a fair .300 to .328, which is… legitimately good! Positive sufficient, the Rangers profited from this improvement. García made the All-Star staff — on advantage this time, not as a pity choice from a last-place staff that wanted to ship a heat physique, as was the case for him in 2021 — and was one of many Rangers’ postseason standouts.

In 15 postseason video games, the person with the iron midsection hit eight residence runs and put up a batting line of .323/.382/.726. García homered in every of the ultimate 4 video games — and drove in not less than one run in every of the ultimate six video games — of a seven-game ALCS win over the archrival Astros. This effort, culminating in a 4-for-5, two-homer, five-RBI Recreation 7, gained García ALCS MVP honors.

García didn’t make it to the top of the World Collection; in Recreation 3, he strained an indirect muscle and missed the ultimate two video games of the postseason. Though García had hit one — I imagine the technical time period is “piss missile” — after one other all through October, his damage wasn’t trigger for panic. As a substitute, it felt like García had exerted himself so ferociously in pursuit of victory that his physique actually fell aside from the pressure simply as his staff crossed the end line. Just like the titular battlestar Galactica or Herbie the Love Bug. A heroic, if painful, finish.

And that’s most likely the final time most of you considered Adolis García. The Rangers, riddled as soon as once more by accidents, put up a reasonably limp protection of their World Collection title: 78-84, nearer to the A’s than first place.

As for the breakout star-turned-playoff hero, right here’s a little bit of trivia that’ll make your mouth itchy: This previous season, seven place gamers performed sufficient to qualify for the batting title but in addition performed poorly sufficient to finish up under substitute degree. 4 of them modified groups midseason — i.e. their efficiency was rewarded with a one-way ticket to Anyplace However Right here. Two others performed for the White Sox, and have been due to this fact most likely one of the best gamers on that accursed roster. The seventh participant was Adolis García.

García performed 154 video games and contributed 25 residence runs, however he hit a meager .224/.284/.400. That’s a 92 wRC+, -0.2 WAR, and the primary sub-.200 ISO of his profession.

So what occurred to you, man?

I do know I’ve been speaking about García as a hitter, however the greatest a part of his weird 2024 droop has been defensive. García was the most effective defensive proper fielders in baseball in 2023, with plus vary and one of many strongest and Most worthy outfield arms within the sport. It’s robust to place up a constructive defensive WAR worth in proper discipline — so odious is the positional adjustment — however in 2023, García was one among solely six gamers to try this.

He completed second in defensive WAR amongst proper fielders with not less than 500 innings on the place, behind solely Fernando Tatis Jr. and simply forward of Jason Heyward and Ramón Laureano, two gamers identified for his or her protection above all else. This season, García’s protection tanked, from 2.9 runs above common to 17.0 runs under common. That accounts for nearly 40% of his journey from All-Star to sub-replacement degree.

Let’s put it one other manner; since 2021, just one different participant has seen an even bigger decline in defensive worth in consecutive full seasons: J.T. Realmuto from 2022 to 2023 . García went from three outs above common to 12 outs under common, that’s a dropoff from the 82nd percentile to the primary percentile for vary.

García is kind of a sturdy participant; in 4 seasons as a significant league common, he’s by no means performed fewer than 148 video games nor batted fewer than 622 occasions. However this can be a musclebound 31-year-old who ended his earlier season with a core muscle damage and has had a power knee concern that’s bothered him previously two seasons. Which may clarify a dropoff in vary and dash velocity, although Rangers GM Chris Younger denied that his struggles have been injury-related.

Younger actually watched García play greater than I did this previous yr, and he doubtless is aware of extra about his beginning proper fielder’s well being than anybody aside from the person himself. And with the season having been over actually for seven weeks — and figuratively for for much longer than that — there’s no instantly apparent purpose to suspect that Younger is mendacity or obfuscating right here.

But when García wasn’t carrying an damage, there’s purpose to suspect that he’s misplaced a step not simply when it comes to foot velocity, however on the plate as effectively. And that might be an actual downside.

In 2023, García hit absolutely the bejeezus out of the ball. When he made contact in 2024, he might nonetheless make good contact, however considerably extra bejeezus remained inside the ball.

We don’t have swing velocity knowledge for 2023, so it’s robust to make a comparability with certainty, however it appears to me like he’s misplaced a tick. You wouldn’t assume this simply taking a look at him, however García has by no means hit fastballs — notably four-seamers — particularly effectively. In 2023, he hit .197 in opposition to four-seamers, making it the one pitch he noticed not less than 100 of and ended up with a unfavourable run worth on. His whiff fee of 34.4% was greater than his whiff fee on curveballs, as an illustration, and inside a degree and a half of his highest whiff fee in opposition to any type of pitch.

However, when he might get bat on ball he did injury, with a SLG of .490 and an xSLG of .482 in opposition to four-seam fastballs. This previous yr, the contact points remained, however the energy additionally evaporated: .310 SLG and .385 xSLG in opposition to four-seamers, leaving him 15 runs under common in opposition to the game’s default pitch, based on Baseball Savant. That minus-15 is tied for the worst efficiency by any hitter in opposition to any explicit pitch sort within the majors in 2024, out of greater than 3,500 hitter-pitch sort combos.

Is there one thing in regards to the form of a four-seamer that will get García’s goat? Theoretically, a hitter with fly ball tendencies would have a swing form higher suited to sinkers and the like, proper? Possibly, however it appears to me like the issue is with excessive velo, and it’s getting worse.

I don’t wish to be all doom and gloom a couple of participant who was so impactful simply a short while in the past. And to be honest, García got here out of the gate on hearth in 2024 earlier than enduring a three-month droop that lasted to the top of the primary half. And among the contact high quality points most likely must do with the truth that as García struggled, he reverted to pre-2023 sort and began chasing extra out of the zone and swinging on the first pitch extra typically. His stroll fee dropped from 10.3% to 7.1% as his chase fee rose from 29.3% to 33.6%. (Although his strikeout fee has remained hilariously constant since 2022, various solely two tenths of a share level throughout three wildly completely different offensive seasons.)

However suffice it to say, I’m somewhat apprehensive about García going ahead, as a result of when the bat velocity goes for a participant like this, there’s not a complete lot else for him to contribute. Which is why I’m so antsy about this profile within the first place. I used to be proper about García as soon as; I’d choose to not be proper about him once more.