2025 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The staff order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent staff up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

For the third time within the final 4 years, the Mariners hung across the playoff race for many of the 2024 marketing campaign, earlier than falling simply quick by the season’s denouement. On the subject of successful 85 to 90 video games a 12 months like clockwork, Jerry Dipoto’s ship is hermetic and his sailors at all times on the ball. However thus far, St. Louis Cardinals: Pacific Northwest hasn’t been fairly as efficient as the unique collection — the Mariners aren’t going to have as simple a time stealing division titles because the Cardinals did, taking part in as they do in a more durable division. Whereas the Mariners aggressively add gamers and make trades, there’s a fundamental conservatism right here that limits the staff’s final upside; regardless of seven successful seasons within the final 11 years, Seattle has maxed out at simply 90 wins. This isn’t a brand new factor both — the franchise solely has one 95-win-or-better season in its historical past (the 116-win 2001 season, in fact).

The lineup isn’t the strongest a part of this staff, nevertheless it’s not less than strong and secure. The highlights are the J. Rodleigh Consortium (Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh), two official stars, although ones who’ve already probably discovered their respective peaks. Rodríguez struggled early this season, however there’s no basic cause to fret about him. And Raleigh has grown right into a official star, although I’d wish to see him get slightly extra DH time given how vital his well being is to the staff; he led all catchers in innings over the past two years, and it’s not like there’s a terrific DH state of affairs to upset right here.

When you get previous Rodríguez and Raleigh, the offense is okay, however moderately underwhelming. Being first rate all over the place raises your staff ground fairly a bit, nevertheless it additionally turns into very onerous to meaningfully improve. ZiPS does see Victor Robles remaining a really strong starter in 2025, which is nice information, and whereas second base feels a bit messy, the projections see principally the entire choices as satisfactory; this isn’t a White Sox state of affairs from a couple of years in the past, the place they collected a bunch of 0.5-WAR second baseman with the obvious need to Voltron them into an All-Star. ZiPS is particularly bought on Cole Younger’s future.

ZiPS charges Ben Williamson as among the best minor league third basemen it’s seen within the decade it’s been ready to make use of hit location/trajectory for minor league protection; if his bat develops and the pc isn’t hallucinating about his glove, he may grow to be a critical keeper. Nonetheless, the bat isn’t there but, with a .236/.309/.329 projected line, so he isn’t going to power the Mariners to offer Josh Rojas the boot or forestall them from bringing in one other third baseman, not less than for 2025.

Once more, this isn’t a foul offense, however I’d wish to see some precise danger someplace. The offseason is simply getting began, so there’s loads of time to herald slightly extra hazard and rather less meh.

Pitchers

The rotation is what butters the Mariners’ bread or, to stay with the nautical theme, lards their pemmican. In a really early estimate — which shouldn’t be taken too critically but, because it’s solely mid-November — ZiPS has the Mariners with the second-best rotation in baseball behind the Phillies. Within the very preliminary run of projected 2025 WAR, ZiPS places all 5 of Seattle’s probably starters within the prime 60 within the majors. And there’s no extreme extrapolation required both; all 5 have proven they will pitch convincingly effectively within the majors. The issue comes with the “what if.” ZiPS tasks a giant drop-off in ERA+ from Bryce Miller to the probably sixth starter, Emerson Hancock — a full 22 factors (107 to 85), the truth is. Of all of the issues individuals say in March that they later remorse, “If the pitching simply stays wholesome, we’ll win the division!” needs to be close to the highest. Undergo a pair critical accidents, and Seattle’s rotation — and the staff — might disintegrate pretty shortly.

There’s sort of an identical bizarre gulf once you take a look at the Mariners bullpen. ZiPS provides very optimistic projections for Andrés Muñoz and Gregory Santos (and Matt Brash, however he’s recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure). However after Santos, there’s one other Splash Mountain. ZiPS is a superb deal much less impressed by Yimi García or Trent Thornton, and it’s no sunnier about Collin Snider than Steamer is. It quantities to a solidly common bullpen — ZiPS likes this group higher than Steamer does — nevertheless it’s a top-heavy one.

Crunch every thing collectively and also you get 89 to 93 wins primarily based on our depth chart taking part in time. However ZiPS isn’t normally as optimistic about well being as our depth charts are, in order that’ll come all the way down to 85 to 90 wins, or… someplace round .540. There’s nothing flawed with being a .540 staff over the lengthy haul, however that doesn’t imply you must settle for it.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by means of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever doable. This consists of gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 as a consequence of harm, and gamers who had been launched in 2024. So sure, should you see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to type a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values may differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody towards — and may karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to provide projected staff WAR.

As at all times, incorrect projections are both attributable to misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our pal and former editor. You possibly can, nevertheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.