Proper-hander Luis Severino is “seemingly” to say no the Qualifying Supply prolonged to him by the Mets earlier this month, in response to a report from Will Sammon of The Athletic. Sammon provides that Severino “loves” enjoying in New York however is now anticipated to try to land a multi-year deal in free company this winter.
Severino, 30, is coming into free company for the second time this yr. The correct-hander entered the open market final winter coming of a disastrous 2023 season with the Yankees the place he surrendered a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings of labor and landed with the Mets on a one-year, $13MM deal. That deal went fairly effectively, as he pitched to a league common 3.91 ERA (101 ERA+) with a 4.21 ERA in 182 innings of labor. He struck out 21.2% of opponents whereas strolling batters at only a 7.9% clip. These are all stable however unspectacular numbers, however that mid-to-back of the rotation manufacturing can nonetheless earn a powerful assure in free company, because the likes of Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker have in recent times (albeit with out the QO connected).
Provided that, it’s maybe not a lot of a shock that Severino would look to beat the one-year, $21.05MM Qualifying Supply. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $51MM contract for Severino earlier this winter, after the Mets connected a QO to him. That assure is consistent with what veteran right-hander Michael Wacha acquired from the Royals simply earlier than free company opened, and Wacha was seen as a equally borderline candidate for a QO as Severino was. In fact, Severino wouldn’t essentially have to achieve that projection for declining the QO to be a worthwhile determination for him. Proper-hander Nathan Eovaldi landed a two-year, $34MM assure with the Rangers final winter that afforded him the chance to decide out following the 2024 season, and even the same deal would internet Severino a bigger total assure than the QO whereas nonetheless affording him the pliability to return to free company subsequent winter.
With Severino poised to say no the QO, the Mets will now must both re-sign him in free company or change him of their rotation. The membership’s rotation additionally stands to lose southpaws Sean Manaea (who acquired a QO as effectively however has lengthy been anticipated to say no it) and Jose Quintana, leaving them with solely Kodai Senga and David Peterson penciled into their 2025 rotation. It’s actually doable that the membership might look to reunite with both Severino or one of many different exiting free agent starters, though the Mets have loads of monetary flexibility and are coming off a shock journey to the NLCS. That might cause them to goal increased in free company this winter, with prime free agent starters equivalent to Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Max Fried all anticipated to be out there. It’s even doable that they flip to the commerce market of their seek for rotation upgrades, as they’ve been linked to White Sox southpaw Garrett Crochet already this winter.
Ought to Severino in the end land elsewhere in free company, him declining the QO implies that the Mets would obtain a compensatory draft decide after the fourth spherical of the 2025 draft as a membership that paid the posh tax in 2024. In the meantime, groups must give up a mixture of draft picks and worldwide bonus pool {dollars} commensurate with their standing relative to the posh tax and income sharing as laid out by MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk final month. Groups that acquired income sharing in 2024 would give up simply their third-round decide within the 2025 draft to signal Severino, whereas groups that paid the Aggressive Steadiness Tax this yr would give up their second- and fifth-round picks along with $1MM in worldwide bonus pool house.
