Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/15

Eric A Longenhagen: Comfortable Friday morning, you hosers! It’s Fall League semi-final day so I’ll be (I believe boldly/stupidly) driving my bike to Scottsdale Stadium this afternoon and mourning the tip of our home baseball-watching calendar…

Eric A Longenhagen: This week I posted an replace to the International Professional Prospect checklist, and the Angels checklist…

Eric A Longenhagen: Because of Sean Dolinar for implementing this through the week

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, vamanos a su preguntas

Phil: Up to date ideas on Denzel Clarke after his current season and any seems on the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has made a number of the most ridiculous and unimaginable performs on the wall that I’ve ever seen. I believe it’ll take some time for him to hit (if it occurs in any respect) however within the meantime he completely has a job on a crew as a plus defensive heart fielder.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s simply such a exceptional athlete and runner, actually particular watching him go first to 3rd or dwelling

Eric A Longenhagen: he leapt so excessive attempting to rob a homer this week that his thighs have been on the prime of the wall and he toppled over it. In CF, not the dugout railing

bk: How do you as a prospect evaluator deal with seasons like Nimmala’s, the place half was terrible, and the opposite half was nice?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d look to see if there may be visible proof of an adjustment within the second half. As a result of Arj performed within the FSL there’s scrapeable knowledge that may present him bettering in chase/whiff in opposition to breaking stuff later within the yr

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s how I’d strategy him, particularly, figuring out points with spin have been current as an novice (I had him late first spherical)

Eamus Catuli: Which Cubs prospect do you see having the very best ceiling? Have they got famous person potential someplace on the farm?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do know it’s not horny and new to say this as a result of he’s been round eternally, however isn’t it Kevin Alcantara? A 6-foot-6 22 yr outdated CF with energy and pace? It’s him. Cam Smith might be subsequent, Angel Cepeda could be the sneaky sleeper title you’re searching for.

Damaged Pitchers: Has Alex Santos turned a nook?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a 40 RP for me (which is sweet). Mid-90s, cutter, curveball, every thing a bit of higher than common for me however nothing constantly plus. Don’t assume he’s a late-inning man or mid-rotation starter, although.

MetsHead: Drew Gilbert appears to have discovered his energy stroke however misplaced contact.  Is that this all rust, or a shift in talent set?

Eric A Longenhagen: His head has been flying far and wide when he swings, it was true once I noticed him with Syracuse round Labor Day (although I believe he was freshly off harm then?) and has remained so. Positively seems extra like a forty five than a real on a regular basis man

Say Whaaaaaa: Did Chase Meidroth do sufficient this yr at AAA to maneuver as much as the 45+ tier? Can he be one thing like a MI utility model of Schanuel?

Eric A Longenhagen: He simply doesn’t have the form of bodily instruments I’m searching for once we’re speaking a few grade that prime. What grade would you placed on Schanuel?

Eric A Longenhagen:

TJ: Steamer has Ben Rice at a 115 wRC+ for 25. He had a 16% barrel final yr. You actually assume he’s a fringe 40 man man?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, I really like his capacity to grab these excessive fastballs, and little question large bodily guys with lefty energy like him are the kinds who break late and have a related window…

Eric A Longenhagen: However Rice hit like .180 in opposition to non-fastballs final yr. There’s a solution to get him out and I believe large league golf equipment are inclined to determine that out and exploit it. The projection fashions cherished Davis Schneider, too.

Busts: Final small pattern measurement, however primarily based on their professional debut which 2024 first rounder do you assume is generally prone to fail in 2025

Eric A Longenhagen: Condon’s was fairly regarding

Kave Dingman: Years in the past, I labored with a man whose son was a twenty fifth rounder and pitched within the minors and in Indy ball. He mainly stated that in the event you have been a prime choose, you would need to “work on” particular issues. Like bettering your curveball would imply EVERY batter will get a 1st pitch curve. Which doesn’t take lengthy for the opposite crew to determine. The result’s that prime prospects outcomes will endure, in the meantime the pitcher is progressing.

How a lot of that is nonetheless true and the way a lot does it influence the statistics of the highest prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree that there are situations the place this occurs but it surely’s not often for therefore lengthy that it has a huge effect on anybody’s statistical efficiency throughout a sufficiently big pattern. For me, for scouts, and even for analysts I believe being delicate to the likelihood that stuff like this could be occurring is essential…

Eric A Longenhagen: For example, Griff McGarry used to have a terrific changeup. He hasn’t thrown his changeup for me within the AFL. Once I do the Phillies checklist, I’ve to dive into that both in his common season knowledge and movie, or by asking somebody with Philly why that is the case.

Mlong: Are you going to rank Roki this yr?  What about Sugano? I overlook the place you draw the traces on rank vs don’t rank?

Eric A Longenhagen: The way in which we’ve settled on it (Meg and I favored JJ Cooper’s logic) is that the blokes who’re topic to Int’l Bonus Swimming pools get ranked, the blokes who’ve performed sufficient to be posted free brokers don’t.

Eric A Longenhagen: We used to make use of whether or not or not the p[layer was Rookie of the 12 months eligible, which utilized to Yamamoto, Imanaga, and so forth., as a result of my logic was, “give folks all the data you may, don’t take stuff away”, however when Yoshida stated he felt disrespected by being on ROY ballots at his age/expertise I turned open to alter

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe the BBWAA ought to agree to chop off ROY voting with the identical definition. Having Yamamoto, and so forth. be ROY eligible impacts how groups view Prospect Promotion Incentives

Sodo Mojo: When you could have a crew just like the Mariners who should very batter pleasant A ball dwelling parks what are you from a stats perspective if you find yourself attempting to guage their hitters at that stage.

Eric A Longenhagen: Park-independent stuff like contact charges and arduous hit charges. Principally the identical stuff as I’d search for from anybody else. The house park elements simply affect how a lot I care about triple slash traces and such

Vslyke: Jared Jones slumped because the season went on – is he going to be sturdy sufficient to carry up over a full season?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a terrific query that has been a part of his profile for his whole prospectdom, and he’ll both get to show it or not. He’s a particular sufficient athlete that I’m optimistic.

Excellent timing: I used to be simply provided Xavier Isaac in OttoNeu. 80/80/80/80 energy.   Any likelihood of 2025 MLB contributor?  One ink says “glorious bat management”; one other Okay fee is exploding. You say?

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay’s exploding, not a 2025 contributor, nonetheless consider within the energy long run

Eric A Longenhagen: He could be coping with persistent wrist or hand stuff? He’s had a brace on typically right here

Anaheim provides you Wings: Are there any advantages to the Angels’ “promote as rapidly as potential” program?  Looks like the event is lagging, the gamers make it to FA sooner, and the minors are left with few items.  So what are the pluses?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are undoubtedly folks in baseball who assume the gamers who’re really good will simply carry out on a regular basis with none extended pace bumps. If that’s true then their strategy is sensible.

Eric A Longenhagen: It made some situational sense given the Ohtani/Trout window, however now it feels form of rushed as if there have to be outcomes from the pipeline to ensure that folks to maintain their jobs

Philip: By any likelihood do you could have Salas EV knowledge for AFL (all video games not simply those statcast displaying)? thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t, some ballparks are utilizing Trackman and others Hawkeye so it could be break up up far and wide regardless of who you’re

Stromile Swift: Moinelo’s conversion to beginning makes him a very fascinating FA chance together with his fallback as a probably elite reliever. Have you ever heard something regarding the potential of him really coming over? I notice it is a lot extra difficult since he has to defect as nicely

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve not. This query and and username are probably the most Eric bait ever, btw.

Eric A Longenhagen: I assume I actually have divulged so much about myself throughout 8 years of being right here

E: Ideas on Ballesteros chance to stay at catcher to a point? How a lot does he transfer up on the board if he’s a catcher? The bat appears spectacular for a younger man in AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: He can throw nicely sufficient to do it and I believe that’s key. He undoubtedly lacks the body/measurement I need (he’s a husky 5-foot-8) and he’s been operating to the backstop a ton right here in AFL. It’s extra dicey than Liranzo and Agustin Ramirez however I’m nonetheless cautiously optimistic

Stromile Swift: And as a comply with as much as my earlier query, how does it work for an NPB prospect that should defect with the posting system? Does he defect then will get “posted”? Appears very messy (and possibly they solely find yourself coming over after they attain FA standing)

Eric A Longenhagen: In Moinelo’s case he signed a four-year deal in March so it’d be a huge mess, and I can’t think about him really bailing on it. I believe the Robert Suarez’s of the world wait till their NPB deal is up and so they’re true FA

Jay: After studying the LAA report, what’s the ‘floor’ (ninetieth %tile?) for Natera if he’s capable of hone his command?

Eric A Longenhagen: JA Happ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like tremendous well-built lefty with out monster secondaries kind man, simply hucking strikes with sink/minimize, tremendous sturdy above avg arm energy kind man

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Do you consider in Austin Overn making changes Cape Cod and ahead?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s simply so narrowly constructed, the PAC12 tourney look was simply okay, extra fifth OF search for me than anything except he will get stronger. Love soccer gamers, after all, however he’s gotta add mass

Buf: What number of years would Schanuel should put up .258/.355/.402 (present projection, 118 wRC+, 2 WAR) earlier than you thought of him a 50? I’m guessing it will take over a full season lol. And I believe I’d agree!

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta do it a number of years, like avg 2 WAR for five yrs

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is there any public-facing knowledge that you just use to judge gamers on the CPX/DSL stage, or is all of it visible scouting and private strike zone/plate self-discipline stuff?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, if there’s a public-facing factor that people don’t find out about it’s that there are tons of CMPLX/DSL streams on YouTube that you might be watching, and people typically have stay TrackMan on the stream

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s occurring proper now. It’s superior. That is how I spend my mornings.

Jason: Which 2024 draft guys do you want most for dynasty leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be focusing on the facility/pace combo guys like anybody else. I’d be extra prone to take a PJ Morlando than a Wyatt Sanford as a result of a lot of Sanford’s actual world capacity comes from protection. So Caldwell, Morlando, Lindsey. Pitchers I’d simply care about proximity.

Tony Plush: Any ideas on Cags within the AFL past “drained”?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yoked

Eric A Longenhagen: Actually unimaginable watching him and Peyton Williams stand subsequent to at least one one other with compression shirts on

James: Emmanuel Rodriguez had one other injury-plagued yr. Did he present you something this yr that strikes him another way on the increase/bust continuum?

Eric A Longenhagen: The protection provides him a flooring, don’t assume that man busts in a real baseball sense

Bort: Does Logan Evans appear to be a viable large league starter subsequent yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve a MIRP grade on him for the time being and I believe that SEA/SD/TEX/KC group can be on the finish of the checklist cycle

Refugee: No query, simply joyful these are again up and operating – are you discovering you could have extra time to do these, or did the crowds of Longenheads outdoors your own home persuade you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somebody I belief and love informed me I used to be too “walled off” now

Eric A Longenhagen: And the positioning deserves the site visitors these present

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus my coworkers do them and I felt like a chump for forgetting to talk so typically that they only evaporated

Kevin: You talked about Braden Nett on Successfully Wild for example of a prospect you’ll ask for if the Padres wished further worldwide pool cash to signal Sasaki. Is he a forty five/45+ man now or is that bonus cash price a 35+ man in your estimation?

Eric A Longenhagen: I simply pulled a reputation from the aether

Ski: In your opinion, are there any instruments or abilities which might be a little bit of a blind spot for the scouting business as an entire? Both as a result of they’re not emphasised appropriately in evaluations or simply troublesome to judge on the whole.

Eric A Longenhagen: Precise day-to-day make-up is so robust (particularly for me), protection could be robust too in the event you’re not utilizing video to get take care of take care of look. For analysts, bodily projection eludes them and their fashions (except they’re utilizing language modeling populated by scouting experiences, which some groups do)

Toshi: Thanks for doing this. Is there anybody within the Mariers’ system who can play 3B on the main stage sooner or later?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re welcome, bud. I believe Cole Younger might be an okay brief time period choice at mainly any infield spot. His lack of energy wouldn’t be preferrred at third however I believe he’d be okay. Ultimately, Colt Emerson (extra juice, not pretty much as good a defender), Tai Peete (uncooked, immense projection), or possibly Felnin Celestin might do it, however that group feels 2 or extra years away, at the least

Nathan: Why was Chase DeLauter within the AFL if he wasn’t going to play? I learn his lack of at bats as proof that his foot is bugging him once more… or am I simply being paranoid?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe they need him to get reps with out placing him in danger, name it “load administration”. I solely noticed him twice, it was irritating for me however I get it. We’re definiely at a spot with him the place the harm persistence alters his “worth”

Lord Thunder: Brock Wilken. Nonetheless a future energy bat for the Brewers or not a GUY?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s labored actually arduous to make himself as lean and athletic as he’s develop into. Bat pace remains to be there. He hasn’t been a High 100 man for me due to the considerations I’ve had concerning the hit device (which have performed out) however there’s nonetheless a lot energy there that I’m not prepared to write down him off

Alec: See something from Cayden Wallace within the AFL? How’s he monitoring because the commerce

Eric A Longenhagen: Solely performed in 3 video games, by no means noticed him

Dino Radja: Does Grant Taylor make the highest 100 this offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I believe so. Stuff plus projection given his lack of reps. He’ll be towards the very again due to aid threat however I believe he’ll be on there

Mariners: Do you retain Harry Ford at catcher at this level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, that place is so grueling that you just’re gonna want our bodies again there.

Eric A Longenhagen: Harry can catch half time and play OF half time and be in your crew with Dumper.

GA Blood: Did Thomas Saggese show any enhancements in plate self-discipline within the Fall League? I used to be fairly surprised at his feedback about having the ability to hit every thing within the interview Laurila posted with him.

Eric A Longenhagen: He has not. He’s an excellent robust eval, he and Nick Kurtz have been the 2 hardest for me to nail down out right here.

Eric A Longenhagen: Saggese’s forearms and palms appear to be they belong to a distinct individual than the remainder of his physique

Eric A Longenhagen: He can actually swing it, however yeah he’s been chase inclined out right here

wheelhouse: is caleb durbin’s energy ceiling as little as the 2024 exit velo numbers would point out, or is there any motive to consider accidents dragged these down

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s so brief levered and on time to tug so typically that I guess he out slugs his uncooked energy. Is it sufficient for him to be a daily 2B/3B? No, however I believe he’ll be a pleasant little utility man.

PhuchAltuve: Any yankees prospects trying like gamers within the afl?

Eric A Longenhagen: Carlos LaGrange could be, he’s simply nonetheless so uncooked. Garrett Martin has had a pleasant AFL however he’s extra an honorable point out kind man for me.

Invoice G: Long run who would you slightly have, Chourio or Merrill?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Ooof that’s robust. Merrill? Gimme the lefty stick and particular really feel for the barrel.

Harold: Did Rocker present sufficient this yr to maneuver up from the 40+ tier for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: How excessive? IDK simply but

Nick: Form of had a normal High X Prospects checklist query that I’d love to listen to your thought course of on.

Say you could have a prime 100 prospects checklist.  The way in which I believe I’d take into consideration making my rankings is that, if I have been a GM of a generic crew (no explicit wants, surpluses, or home windows to compete/not compete in), I’d be prepared to commerce the 54th prospect for the 53rd (even when simply barely) however not vice versa.

My normal sense, although, is that prospect lists don’t are inclined to replicate this exactly.

What would you say your guiding rules are for rating one prospect in entrance of one other?  And in what methods — and, extra importantly, why! — do you could have it differ from “most dear in a generic commerce”?

Eric A Longenhagen: The thought train you’re doing — “would I commerce X for Y?” — is unquestionably a query I ask myself when placing any checklist collectively, prime 100 or crew. After we’re speaking concerning the 50 FV tier (which is large relative to the others on the High 100), I’m prioritizing gamers with abilities/traits that I believe give them a better flooring. That’s 1) up the center protection, 2) contact talent, 3) proximity to MLB. So in the event you take a look at any of my prime 100 lists you’re gonna see the groupings like that. Jacob Wilson윌슨 can be larger than Owen Caissie, and so forth.

Eric A Longenhagen: However yeah, as soon as the gamers are comparable sufficient that the stuff you talked about (wants, surpluses, or home windows to compete/not compete in) is what dictates your reply to “who would I slightly have” you get into this space the place heuristics are a information

RWFTF: How a lot does a Synergy Sports activities subscription price?

Eric A Longenhagen: Half of my pre-covid journey funds

KingRaj4826: What are your ideas on Nestor German of the Orioles? He had a 1.59 ERA with a 2.17 FIP in 73.2 IP throughout A & A+ in his professional debut this yr.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s an actual prospect. 93-94, excessive slot downhill angle, actual slider command and depth, slower curveball with in-zone utility…Nothing tremendous nasty but it surely works

Eric A Longenhagen: backend SP/swingman kind

Mlong: Prediction on when the subsequent MLB growth draft happens and what the foundations could be?

Eric A Longenhagen: No concept however I do know I wish to be concerned

visitor: with Endy Rodriguez getting back from harm and his first MLB season a battle offensively, do you continue to consider in his upside together with his minor league observe file?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, love his swing and really feel for the barrel, assume it’s essential to see the place his physique is at popping out of rehab as a result of some guys get sturdy after they don’t have anything to do however elevate, and hat’s the one factor he was lacking.

Wyatt: Langford had rookie season however fell far wanting the hype. Do you assume he takes a step ahead this yr, or will he be overmatched by excessive heaters once more?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m nonetheless all in

Colton: Any motive why Kurtz has been so arduous to nail down particularly?

Eric A Longenhagen: He checks some very particular bins (large man with brief levers, vertical bat path) however I believe he’s a nasty athlete and the bar at 1B is soooo excessive, and I’m traumatized by Vaughn/Tork….

MattM: How would you examine Seth Hernandez and Dylan Lesko as prospects at their identical age (heading into their draft yr)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sethy is a greater athlete with higher bodily projection. Lesko’s fastball had higher form and motion.

MDS1080: STL seems like they are going to fill in holes of their pitching workers for 2025 by tapping their farm system.  Some other groups prone to deal with inside promotion over FA acquisition?

Eric A Longenhagen: TB, COL, OAK, CHC

Eric A Longenhagen: Really feel like there are plenty of near-ready hitters in these spots, kinda assume all 4 golf equipment might sneak up on us subsequent yr

Eric A Longenhagen: Particularly Oakland. Lawrence Butler is gonna have 40 bombs subsequent yr.

ML: That is in all probability extra of a professional scouting query however I’d love to listen to your opinion on why Tork has struggled a lot to satisfy expectations.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tight decrease physique, can’t dip and scoop softer stuff.

Visitor: Did something about Jordan Westberg’s efficiency final yr shock you? As an Orioles fan, watching him play alot I believe he’s higher than marketed…

Eric A Longenhagen: I 45’d him considering he’d get labored up round his palms, he’s a Dude.

Mark: The Giants yo-yo-ing of Marco Luciano makes me marvel about their confidence in him. Do you assume he’s a serious league common for them?

Dipoto: Suppose Colt Emerson turns into a prime 5 prospect this yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, I’m gonna get engaged on the A’s prospect checklist now. Search for me on TV tonight and tomorrow, I’m the good-looking one. Thanks for coming to the positioning this week, please think about a sub in the event you don’t have already got one.