Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/14/24

Billy Butler Did It: What’s a sensible transfer the Royals may make to improve the offense?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see a cause the Royals COULDNT go after Santander. Or at the very least Joc Pederson

Dan Szymborski: and welcome to SzymChat! With me lastly carried out the ZiPS prep and it rolling out, chats are again

Brad M: Are we staring down a lockout in 2027? Missed video games?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, I don’t anticipate a clear CBA settlement and I believe it’s extra possible than not that we miss video games

Billy Butler Did It: What Nineteen Eighties participant would you be most eager about seeing how he would do enjoying at this time?

Dan Szymborski: I kinda wish to see what younger Rickey would do with EASIER stolen base guidelines

Kyle: simply take a gander…which staff does The Generational Juan Soto signal with?

Dan Szymborski: I’m gonna say Blue Jays. They’re in all probability a bit sore after shedding the LAST huge fish on the final second and the place the staff is, they both have to PUSH their chips or begin over.

Bruno: Most likely random however…the premier12 baseball event has been good!

Billy Butler Did It: Dave Szymborski replace?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t had a lot Dave Szymborski stuff currently. There was some Donald Szymborski spam about three months in the past however haven’t seen a lot since (or Gmail is filtering it higher)

Dan Szymborski: I *do* appear to have gotten onto the VMI Alumni e-mail record and I’m fairly positive a D___ Szymborski needs to be accountable. In spite of everything, I believe I’d keep in mind relocating to Virginia and Jesuits and army guys costume very in a different way

Dan Szymborski: And I used to be *by no means* in form sufficient or neat sufficient or disciplined sufficient or many different issues to have been in a army academy!

Taryn: Let’s assume the Yanks signal Soto…what different gamers do they go after? Commerce for Josh Naylor?

Dan Szymborski: I may see them go after Alex Bregman

Roki: Why haven’t I already signed with the Dodgers? Let’s not waste everybody’s time

Dan Szymborski: I th ink there’s an entire course of!

Billy Butler Did It: Pondering of constructing a BLT for lunch. Do you do something particular other than the three eponymous components? (Avocado is a no go because of ripeness).

Dan Szymborski: I don’t look after even good lettuce with bacon for some cause

Dan Szymborski: I’m having a reuben variant proper now. Gruyere and because the grocery retailer solely offered Russian dressing in containers of like 10, I needed to dump the bottle of Thousand Island within the blender and physician it up (horseradish, smoked paprika, pickled garlic)

Williams: Are we taking a look at growth as soon as the brand new CBA is signed in 2 years?

Dan Szymborski: I believe no

Dan Szymborski: There are nonetheless a few blackmail stadiums to get out of venal, cowardly politicians

Norm: Tigers desperately want a RH bat with energy. Who would you be concentrating on for those who had been Scott Harris?

Dan Szymborski: switch-hitting Santander in all probability. There aren’t an entire ton of OFs to select from

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Do FIP and xFIP “maintain up” within the minors? My understanding is that DIPS depends upon pitchers dwelling in a slender band of contact suppression. Exhausting to think about that being the case within the minors, particularly beneath AA.

Dan Szymborski: As you go down, it holds up much less and fewer. It nonetheless MOSTLY holds up within the excessive minors, as you think about

Dan Szymborski: After we speak about issues like FIP, we’re speaking on the very elite stage of play. Within the elite group of every part, there aer going to be traits current that aren’t in a non-elite group

Dan Szymborski: For those who’re utilizing FIP in your little league staff, you’re in all probability a dumbass and doing extra hurt to the youngsters than good

Billy Butler Did It: Are projection programs extra correct now than they had been 15 years in the past? If that’s the case, how a lot has statcast and comparable knowledge performed a task within the enchancment?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is, although you’re not going to get groundbreaking adjustments

Dan Szymborski: Particularly once you speak simply that backside line center quantity

Scotty: Danny Zips! What does ZIPs suppose is a good deal for Soto? Does it eclipse the $600 million mark?

Dan Szymborski: Final I checked, ZiPS thought 13/620

Billy Butler Did It: The worst present GM in baseball will get transported again to the 1977 to run the growth Seattle Mariners. How shortly may he flip that horrible staff right into a winner?

Dan Szymborski: There nonetheless are a pair fairly awful GMs

Dan Szymborski: And even ones that aren’t awful by saddled by awful possession, I don’t suppose the Mariners possession in 1977 will get higher too

Chase: Want some hope as an Angels fan. Feels just like the offseason from a number of years in the past (depth strikes like Drury, Urshela, and many others.), nothing we will do makes us a playoff staff however I’d even take some extra strikes to get to .500

Dan Szymborski: Actually, I don’t have lots of hope to supply

Dan Szymborski: Little doubt it’s in a big half the sub-mediocre possession, however the Angels simply have a tendency do an entire bunch of No matter

Marcel S: If the Marlins had been to make a “huge” transfer this offseason, what do you suppose that might appear to be?

Dan Szymborski: In the event that they’re feeling actually aggressive financially, they may let the entrance workplace get pizza oN Fridays

Satan Ray Jay Johnson: The Rays simply introduced they are going to play in Tampa on the Yankees spring coaching park in 2025. Was this one of the best of not many nice choices?

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided what different decisions they actually had. I believe even politicians would balk if groups began demanding two stadiums: one to play in and one backup stadium

SPArn: There’s smoke on the Nationals being in on anybody from Bregman, to Flaherty, to Walker, to Santander. Do you see them making their “Werth splash” this offseason? And if that’s the case, what avenue do you suppose they pursue?

Dan Szymborski: I truthfully don’t suppose they do something actually attention-grabbing

Lalalalasagna: How does ZIPS see Gerrit Cole’s efficiency sustaining as he ages given this final season price of knowledge?

Dan Szymborski: Decently nicely

mmddyyyy: Do you suppose any pitchers are getting away with overseas substances?

Dan Szymborski: pitchers ALWAYS are

mmddyyyy: Would an growth metropolis want their staff within the NL or AL?

Dan Szymborski: It depends upon town

Dan Szymborski: Like I believe Portland may want to be within the AL West however some NC staff in all probability would like the NL East

Lalalalasagna: Any bizarre park results for the A’s within the new stadium?

Dan Szymborski: I’m GUESSING its round impartial. Sutter Well being is principally one of many few non-crazy PCL fields

Dan Szymborski: at the very least among the many old fashioned PCL groups

mmddyyyy: Which pitch was invented most not too long ago?

Dan Szymborski: Relies upon what you deem to be INVENTED? Sweeper is invented as a discrete time period, however the pitch already existed

Dan Szymborski: perhaps the circle change? I believe Roger Craig invented the pitch

Okra: Any likelihood the depth charts enjoying time allocations may be up to date to be extra practical?  They’re at the moment very optimistic on participant well being.  I believe a 50/50 over/underneath fashion assumption could be extra useful.

Dan Szymborski: That’s nto actually my name!

Satan Ray Jay Johnson: re CBA. I’m not positive both aspect has the abdomen to make any basic adjustments after the final go spherical. It looks like a lot of the gamers’ agenda may very well be met by one other wholesome improve within the minimal wage and bonus swimming pools, whereas the homeowners don’t have to provide something up besides basically a value of dwelling plus adjustment.

Billy Butler Did It: Thanks for the good tip on selfmade Russian dressing. It has develop into as uncommon as vinaigrette on the grocery retailer.

BC26: Would you be keen to provide Burnes a seven-year contract?

Dan Szymborski: Certain

Phil Risotto: Would you’re taking the Dodgers over the sphere to signal Sasaki?

Dan Szymborski: Reality is, I don’t have any specific perception into Sasaki’s needs

Visitor: How a lot do you suppose this previous publish season will have an effect on Choose’s legacy?

Dan Szymborski: Not a lot.

Dan Szymborski: Lengthy-term, “dangerous in postseason” is just introduced up in profession discussions when writers hate a man

Dan Szymborski: Barry Bonds WORST POSTSEASON CHOKER EVER was the storyline till 2002/2003 and everybody forgot about it

Billy Butler Did It: Within the Nineteen Eighties army academy film, the Dan Szymborski character will get out of bodily coaching and different perks because the Commandant’s right-hand man for AV and know-how, but in addition runs the black marketplace for contraband and wires a selfmade radio that will get all of the ballgames.

Billy Butler Did It: However wouldn’t simply understanding OBP whereas your league rivals bat a quick .285 OBP man leadoff get you at the very least into the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: It might definitely HELP

Dan Szymborski: nevertheless it’s laborious constructing expertise with a brand new staff!

mcgraw45: Bathe ideas this morning: How a couple of contract filled with participant choices to decrease AAV? I’m pondering 5 years for Yates, participant choice after every year, $8M first yr, $2M yearly after = $3.2M AAV, participant principally will get optionally available contract deferrals and staff will get an artificially low AAV.

Dan Szymborski: Below dedication of wage within the CBA, there’s lots of language to keep away from shenanigans like this

Dan Szymborski: there are methods to therapeutic massage it, however there are limits

Dan Szymborski: and if somebody finds too blatant a loophole, the commissioner has the authority to refuse to permit the contract

ppenayr: Alonso to the Pirates? Whats an affordable participant they may take a look at with phrase from possession “theyre keen to spend”

Dan Szymborski: Lord, I’d hope notice for the Pirates sake

Dan Szymborski: not

Dan Szymborski: The Mets at the very least have the excuse that he’s been their man to overpay him. If a small market proprietor permits their GM to provide $200 million to Alonso, that could be the final huge contract that proprietor ever OKs

Visitor: Odds Vientos simply had his profession season?  Additionally, does ZiPS suppose he’s a viable defensive 3B for for much longer (and even now)?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly first rate, at the very least on a price standpoint. Individuals VASTLY underrate the likelihood {that a} participant merely peaks of their early to mid 20s

Lalalalasagna: Does Tampa have comparable dimensions to YS3 (spacious heart, quick proper, and many others)? If that’s the case, ZIPS projections for Rays will basically account for them enjoying half their video games in Yankee Stadium?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t truly know the Steinbrenner Area dimensions off-hand

Dan Szymborski: I simply realized like 10 minutes earlier than this chat that I must try this

Talfred: Was Invoice North the worst postseason participant?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t checked currently if anybody handed them, however as of a pair years in the past, Reggie Sanders had the worst profession WPA amongst hitters and Ed Summers amongst pitchers

Dan Szymborski: One among my favourite factoids is that Babe Ruth has extra profession postseason WPA as a pitcher than a hitter

BeefLoaf108: Dan, what’s going to cease you from making enjoyable of my White Sox so rattling a lot?

Dan Szymborski: Competence?

Dan Szymborski: If the White Sox are good, they get these AIs:

Dan Szymborski: But when they’re not, they get these:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I’ll throw this in simply because

Dan Szymborski:

Marcus Lepidus: Would the Yankees take a look at Arenado as a commerce goal? I don’t suppose he suits in St. Louis anymore.

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided they’d have an interest

Syndergaardengnomes: Re: Transporting a present GM again to 1977 Seattle, greatest downside you’re going to have (exterior of physics), is the shortage of free brokers to selected from these first few years.  You didn’t have 200 guys going FA yearly, and one of the best ones (Gossage, Rose), you didn’t must be a time traveler to know they had been good…

Billy Butler Did It: Sadly, the Dan Szymborski character can be the primary one killed when the terrorists take over the varsity and he tries to radio for assist.

12 to six: that the dodgers touchdown each sasaki and (much less possible, however nonetheless fully believable) soto is practical is wild.  

making the belief such happens, allowing flaherty and hernandez and (presumably, although i feel he resigns on a pillow contract)  buehler to depart would end in an approximate 40mm delta on wage, so including soto at ~47.5mm and sasaki on the posting course of would end in someplace round a 10mm improve in wage, lots of which may conceptually be obviated if the dodgers may float the 17mm remaining on chris taylor’s contract someplace by attaching a few center prospects to it.

Brad M: You suppose MLB would miss common season video games or simply spring coaching video games because of a piece stoppage?

Dan Szymborski: It’s laborious to say. I’m not optimistic

Dan Szymborski: Although one can say that to an extent, the final lockout confirmed the gamers lacked an actual abdomen for an impactful work stoppage

Dan Szymborski: As a result of essentially, for gamers to make positive factors, you’re going to have some guys keen to make huge sacrifices. Time all the time favors the homeowners, not the gamers.

mmddyyyy: Does the union have any enter on gamers doing the much less conventional media stuff like on area/in sport interviews?

Dan Szymborski: Loads of these items is within the CBA together with BBWAA guidelines

Jackson: Do you see the Angels signing a legit pitcher to a multi-year deal this offseason? If that’s the case, who?

Dan Szymborski: Legit as in wonderful? No

Todd Bonzalez: What duties will Burnes be assigned for the seven years he’s in contract with Dan Szymborski?

Dan Szymborski: He’s going to must brainstorm wher eI’m going to give you $220 million

mmddyyyy: Are the homeowners pals?

Dan Szymborski: It relies upon

Talfred: Purple Sox followers lament that Yoshida isn’t match for his or her roster and must be traded. Isn’t he a poor match for anybody’s roster as a slap-hitting DH at $18MM per? Looks as if he’s a tough participant to seek out room for.

Dan Szymborski: Actually, his line-drivey skillset makes Fenway possible considered one of his finest locations

Lalalalasagna: How would you deal with the Orioles offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Relies on what my constraints are from possession wage clever

Dan Szymborski: investing in a free agent is lots larger a deal than shopping for rounds for excited followers at Pickles

Dan Szymborski: I do suppose that the O’s don’t get a high grade this offseason in the event that they don’t find yourself with an ace-type pitcher on the high who isn’t at the moment underneath contract

Colton: With out entering into the small print, may you give us essentially the most shocking projection ZiPS gave you?

Dan Szymborski: Just a little too quickly as I haven’t personally reviewed all 4000!

Matt VW: I do know that basically it ‘s smarter to guage a participant with ballpark context stripped out. However for those who had been working a staff, would you ever be tempted by a participant whose specific pluses and minuses would play up in your stadium?

Dan Szymborski: I’d, nevertheless it must be an edge case

Dan Szymborski: Like a BIG L/R park issue factor

Phil Risotto: AL West and East groups will play about 12% of their video games in minor league stadiums due to the Rays and Athletics. UGH

James: Odds that the Rays play in Tropicana once more?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I believe they do, although there’s going to be lots of preventing between the staff, authorities, feds, and insurance coverage

Reece G: One other lockout? Missed video games?! Baseball would destroy itself….its barely hanging on within the nationwide thoughts as is with solely like 6 related groups. MLB is already behind the NFL & NBA…lacking common season video games could be disastrous.

Dan Szymborski: A late begin is probalby lots much less damaging than a midseason loss

Dan Szymborski: I doubt most wavering followers who aren’t hardcore will care THAT a lot in the event that they lose an April one yr

Bubba: What’s the purpose of doing staff by staff ZIPS projection artcles earlier than any main signings/trades occurred?

Dan Szymborski: They’re not explicitly 2025 previews

Dan Szymborski: And speaking about WHERE a staff at the moment is all the time have worth

Dan Szymborski: has

mmddyyyy: Does an MLB org have extra participant or non-player workers?

Dan Szymborski: non-player

Cat Latos: What do my cat pals do?

Dan Szymborski: Some leaves blew purchase, so Justinian is pondering on my workplace windowsill

Dan Szymborski: I heard Constantine on the steps enjoying with this silly toy that appears like a consuming straw that got here of their meowbox (I do know it’s him as a result of Cassie doesn’t like that toy and Mercutio received’t put on a collar so has no jingle)

Dan Szymborski: Final I noticed Cassie she was asleep within the high shelf of the cat tree within the again room upstairs and Mercutio sleeping on high of a pillow on the lounge sofa

Invoice Lumbergh: What was your greatest change to the ZiPs method this yr?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing large, I speak abuot ZiPS within the intro!

Dan Szymborski: On that notice, I’ve one other ZiPS staff to complete for tomorrow, so it’s time for me to move out for one more week!

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everybody