When Brandon Lowe was wholesome in 2020 and ’21, he was arguably one of the best second baseman in baseball. The Rays slugger led major second basemen in house runs, RBI, OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR over these two seasons. Sadly, he has missed important time with numerous accidents in every of the three years since. When he takes the sphere, nevertheless, Lowe continues to be a extremely productive participant. He launched 21 homers in 107 video games this previous season whereas producing a 123 wRC+ and a pair of.2 fWAR. His .350 xwOBA ranked within the eighty fifth percentile of main league hitters.
Earlier this month, Tampa Bay picked up a $10.5MM workforce possibility for Lowe’s companies in 2025, slightly than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him off to free company. The Rays may be notoriously close-fisted, however nonetheless, there was little doubt they’d train the choice. A internet $9.5MM is a cut price for a participant like Lowe, even when he sits out a 3rd of the season with accidents as soon as once more. That being mentioned, a $10.5MM wage places Lowe in a tie with Jeffrey Springs for the best paycheck on the membership subsequent 12 months. To place it one other means, it’s roughly 12% of the workforce’s estimated payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource). Thus, it’s greater than honest to marvel if the Rays would slightly unfold that cash throughout a number of roster spots slightly than give all of it to 1 injury-prone participant. In different phrases, it’s honest to marvel if Lowe shall be carrying a brand new uniform by Opening Day subsequent March.
Tampa Bay has an extended monitor of buying and selling veteran gamers as soon as their salaries begin to improve, even when the workforce continues to be planning to contend. Because the Rays enter the 2024-25 offseason coming off their worst end since 2017, and coming off a season wherein they bought large on the commerce deadline, it appears much more plausible that they’d contemplate buying and selling Lowe. Moreover, the Rays have a number of inner choices who might change Lowe within the lineup (even when they’ll’t essentially change his manufacturing). One in all Junior Caminero or José Caballero might doubtlessly slide over to second base, whereas Christopher Morel might slot in for Caminero at third base or Taylor Partitions might change Caballero at shortstop. Former high prospect Curtis Mead is one other infielder to bear in mind.
Then once more, the truth that the Rays didn’t commerce Lowe finally 12 months’s deadline may very well be a sign that they’d like to carry onto him for 2025. In any case, they may be low cost, however additionally they love a very good worth play. If the Rays store Lowe round and are available to the conclusion that he’s severely undervalued across the league, they could favor to carry onto him.
Again in August, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola advised Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Occasions, “I don’t suppose the business and even our personal followers perceive the affect [Lowe] makes in our lineup.” If president of baseball operations Erik Neander shares that opinion, he may be hesitant to half along with his All-Star second baseman. Neander not too long ago expressed confidence in Lowe’s bat and glove, telling Topkin, that Lowe is “Most worthy” as a second baseman however that the workforce might proceed to provide him a while at first base and DH subsequent season to have his highly effective bat within the lineup as usually as doable.
It’s additionally value mentioning that Lowe has one other workforce possibility for 2026 (valued at $11.5MM with a $500K buyout), which suggests Tampa Bay might preserve him round for the beginning of subsequent season and nonetheless have the pliability to commerce him at a later date. What’s extra, the Rays have quite a few different commerce candidates on the roster. Lowe isn’t the one participant they’ll flip in the event that they’re going through strain to chop payroll in mild of the injury to Tropicana Discipline or the workforce’s present lack of a broadcast deal.
First baseman Yandy Díaz and nearer Pete Fairbanks are two of the highest 10 gamers on MLBTR’s listing of the high 35 commerce candidates of the offseason. Díaz (no. 5) shall be making $10MM subsequent 12 months, and he has a $12MM workforce possibility for the next season. His contract additionally features a $1MM commerce task bonus. Fairbanks (no. 7) is about to gather $3.67MM in 2025, and he has a $7MM membership possibility with a $1MM buyout for 2026. Yet another identify to bear in mind is Zack Littell. He doesn’t have the identical star energy as Díaz and even Fairbanks, however he has confirmed himself to be a succesful mid-rotation starter over the past 12 months and a half. He made simply $1.85MM this previous season, however he’s projected to earn near a $3MM elevate in his last 12 months of arbitration eligibility.
One other issue to think about is the marketplace for second baseman this offseason, each when it comes to free brokers and commerce candidates. Solely two of MLBTR’s high 50 free brokers are major second basemen: Gleyber Torres (no. 20) and Hyeseong Kim (no. 26). One might simply think about why groups would like Lowe over both of them, particularly on such a team-friendly contract. Nonetheless, issues might get extra sophisticated if any groups are severely pursuing Alex Bregman (no. 3), Willy Adames (no. 5), or Ha-Seong Kim (no. 43) to play second base. Ha-Seong Kim was a major second baseman as not too long ago as 2023, whereas each Adames and Bregman have expressed a willingness to change positions.
As for the commerce market, second basemen who may very well be on the transfer embody Luis Arraez (no. 17 on MLBTR’s high commerce candidates listing), Brendan Donovan (no. 20), and Nolan Gorman (no. 21). Nonetheless, none of these gamers appear notably prone to be dealt, they usually all fill completely different niches than Lowe. Funnily sufficient, all 4 bat left-handed, however Lowe is the one one who gives confirmed, middle-of-the-order energy towards each left- and right-handed pitching.
So, do you suppose the Rays will maintain onto Lowe this winter? Or will they’ve a brand new second baseman on Opening Day 2025? Have your say within the ballot under!
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Picture courtesy of USA At present Sports activities.
