Is Payton Pritchard really this good?

It’s plain that Payton Pritchard has been cooking with one thing somewhat stronger than canola oil. His minutes and effectivity are each up, his scoring is method up, and the vibes are so up they’re blowing a gap by way of the ceiling and reaching escape velocity. Is all of this actual, and whether it is, what ought to we do with it?

Saturday evening’s conflict with the Charlotte Hornets gave us some extra information to work with. He dropped 22 factors in 29 minutes, acquired sizzling within the first half and cooled off within the second. It’s his fifth 15+ level efficiency of the season, and by numerous counting stats, he ought to be the favourite to win Sixth Man of the 12 months. Betting markets positive suppose so.

However has Pritchard really grow to be a dynamic off-the-bench spark plug who may bail the Celtics out of sketchy conditions in massive video games? After principally enjoying particular groups within the NBA Finals, has he achieved sufficient for a constant function come playoff time? It will not be such a easy “sure.”

Whereas it’s true that Pritchard is scoring quite a bit, he’s nonetheless a one-dimensional offensive participant. He’s feisty off the ball, however as soon as he will get it, he’s nonetheless a pure three-point specialist that has gotten criminally sizzling 4 occasions in seven video games. Out of 78 complete photographs this season, 66 of them have threes. That’s not a very attention-grabbing shot weight loss program, but it surely’s nearly actually what the Celtics need him doing in Joe Mazzulla’s system.

And he’s knocking them down. Of all NBA gamers with no less than 50 three-point makes an attempt this season, he’s first in taking pictures share at 44.9%. Any group would kill for that quantity off the bench, particularly at first rate quantity. With the Celtics asking different groups to protect 4 totally different good-to-great creators, rolling out a sniper to go with them is the maraschino cherry on the award-winning ice cream sundae from the Del Frisco’s dessert menu.

The outcomes have been there, however Pritchard’s drawback will probably be reproducing them when the Celtics really want it. He hasn’t achieved this wonderful 45% by way of a bunch of stable nights, however by way of being both scalding sizzling or frigid from past the arc, with no in-between. Listed here are his first seven splits in chronological order:

11.1%
50.0%
71.4%
66.7%
36.4%
0.0%
50.0%

Taking pictures is a fickle artwork. With what number of of his photographs are threes, Pritchard will probably be extra inclined to the swings of variance than most different gamers in his tier. There’s a purpose you reside by the three and die by the three. There isn’t a both/or in that enterprise.

Basically, Pritchard lacks the additive expertise wanted to remain on the courtroom if his shot isn’t falling for anyone evening. He’s not a detrimental or disinterested defender, however lacks the bodily instruments to hold with most elite shot creators who will search and destroy Pritchard again and again.

Many iterations of this Celtics group have wanted Pritchard’s taking pictures on paper, however have been unable to maintain him on the market in the actual world. With pick-and-roll destroyers like Jimmy Butler and Donovan Mitchell lurking within the Japanese Convention and loads of assassins within the West, Pritchard’s limitations can solely be masked by a nuclear offensive outburst. Would the Celtics guess on that in a playoff sequence?

I’m undecided they’d. With everybody wholesome, Sam Hauser will probably stay the Celtics’ seventh man in most matchups, with a defensive capability Pritchard merely lacks. If the Celtics lose somebody to damage, Pritchard is an effective “break glass in case of emergency” creator who could make one thing occur off the dribble, his major leg up on Hauser. However when the off-the-dribble obligations are coated, Pritchard’s function could also be smaller than some will need.

Pritchard has proven a capability to enhance 12 months over 12 months, as since falling out of the rotation in 2022 he has carved out extra minutes, photographs and factors for himself whereas securing a brand new contract. That’s no small feat, and the Celtics will proceed to sculpt methods for him to make an affect; half-court photographs are solely the start.

Relying on how optimistic you’re, that is both the subsequent step in Pritchard’s improvement as an elite scoring sixth man or a wonderful aberration fueled by unsustainable three-point luck. However questioning if Pritchard goes to be a practical sixth man within the playoffs is an effective drawback to have, and extra indicative of the Celtics’ embarrassment of riches than one thing Boston ought to really lose sleep over.

If he can play, nice. If he doesn’t have it, they’ll be positive. The problem will probably be determining which recreation is which, and the Celtics have six months to find out how. Certain, Pritchard’s begin to the season may be a mirage, however one you’ll be able to take info from and use it to get higher. Not a nasty deal. Not unhealthy in any respect.