Ballot: Christian Walker And The Qualifying Supply

Ever for the reason that membership dealt famous person slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals previous to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been counting on Christian Walker to choose up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a daily, Walker was considerably uneven as he posted roughly league common numbers with the bat general (103 wRC+) because of first rate however unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and stroll (9.6%) charges that mixed with solely common energy. Whereas Walker posted above common defensive marks throughout that point, that wasn’t sufficient to make him an influence participant at a bat-first place like first base, leaving him to generate simply 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking on for Goldschmidt.

Since then, nonetheless, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and brought off in a giant means. A breakout 2022 season noticed Walker almost match that aforementioned three-year whole in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR marketing campaign the place he slashed a superb .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) whereas showing in 160 of the membership’s 162 video games and clobbering 36 house runs. That was good for the sixth-highest house run whole within the league that 12 months, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout charge and 10.3% stroll charge. Solely Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in hanging out lower than 20% of the time, strolling greater than 10% of the time, and clubbing no less than 30 homers that 12 months. 2022 Additionally noticed Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Common and +17 Defensive Runs Saved simply earned him his first profession Gold Glove award as he ran circles across the competitors, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing because the next-best defensive resume that 12 months.

Some skepticism is at all times obligatory when a participant on the improper facet of 30 enjoys a breakout season, however Walker has subsequently confirmed his improbable age-31 marketing campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been extra of the identical in every of the final two years, as Walker has posted similar 119 wRC+ figures in each 2023 and ’24 whereas slugging a mixed 59 homers and producing 6.9 fWAR. Over the previous three years, solely Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated extra fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of many league’s premiere first basemen.

Every of these 4 sluggers forward of him have performed on nine-figure offers in recent times, however at the same time as Walker heads into free company for the primary time in his profession it might be a shock if he had been to affix them in touchdown a contract anyplace near that worth level. The most important cause for that’s his age; Walker will flip 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a 12 months older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. Whereas it’s actually not extraordinary for hitters to stay efficient into their mid-to-late thirties, it might be an extremely dangerous wager for a membership to supply Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the standard growing old curve of MLB gamers.

Walker’s age isn’t the one issue at play right here, both. Whereas his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a profitable one, an indirect pressure value the veteran simply over a month late within the 12 months. Walker’s availability has been a serious asset in recent times; the veteran appeared in additional than 90% of the Dbacks’ video games from 2019 to 2023, together with simply seven video games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons mixed. On condition that, it’s certainly regarding to potential suitors that Walker now has a big indirect damage in his latest historical past—significantly given the truth that he additionally suffered from indirect issues in 2021 that resulted in a number of journeys to the IL.

Because the veteran enters free company not solely on the cusp of his mid-thirties however on the heels of a contemporary reminder of his damage historical past, it’s honest to marvel what kind of contract might be out there to him on the open market. Different veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get offers within the two-to-three 12 months vary for $15-20MM yearly, and it’s not exhausting to think about Walker getting the same deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in the same vary, that might seemingly place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Supply, which this offseason might be a one-year deal value $21.05MM.

That’s seemingly a slight overpay when it comes to AAV for Walker’s companies, but it surely might nonetheless be a lovely gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s significance to the membership’s lineup in recent times and the short-term nature of the dedication. RosterResource at Fangraphs tasks Arizona for just below $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, although that determine shoots as much as round $138MM after factoring in choices for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.

That might nonetheless go away the membership with round $35MM of price range area in the event that they had been to match their 2024 spending totals, though a $21.05MM dedication to Walker would eat up the vast majority of that area, leaving them with out a lot room to switch different outgoing free brokers reminiscent of Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. In fact, that assumes that Walker would settle for the supply if it’s prolonged to him. If he had been to say no it and signal elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would obtain a compensatory decide following both the primary or second spherical of the 2025 draft in change for shedding Walker, permitting them to make sure they gained’t lose a key cog of their lineup for nothing.

Ought to the Diamondbacks prolong Walker the Qualifying Supply this winter and danger paying him extra in 2025 than he would earn in any other case, or ought to they permit him to enter free company unencumbered and danger shedding him for nothing? Have your say within the ballot under.