Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat- 10/18

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from stunning Tempe the place the temps have lastly dipped after one thing like 20 days in a row of file highs.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m going to the 2 east valley Fall League video games right now and need to put the bow on one other dispatch of notes so I’ll probably hold this chat tight to the highest of the hour.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay let’s boogie…

Sox fan: Hey Eric – thanks for all of your prospects content material. Questioning whenever you’ll have any updates on the upcoming worldwide signing intervals. Significantly focused on any Pink Sox associated intel. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, I’ve received a bunch of massive $ names and workforce for the subsequent couple of years in my notes and I’ll be constructing out the $1mil+ model of The Board for publication within the subsequent few weeks…

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have any Boston guys for ’25 in my notes, they’ve tended to unfold out medium sized bonuses throughout their complete class moderately than spend $2mil+ on anybody man and I think about that’s the case once more

Victoria: There was speak of the Cubs buying and selling from their loaded prime of the system. Folks normally recommend Triantos or Alcántara, however what in the event that they determined Mo Baller wasn’t going to make it as a catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Then yeah, his worth within the eyes of workforce who suppose he can catch could be approach increased than it might be to the Cubs in that state of affairs and it’d extra make sense to maneuver him

Matt Thompson: Bummed I’m not making it out to the AFL this 12 months and I’ll be dwelling vicariously by way of all of the movies I watch through Twitter. With the standard of pitching out right here being the worst it has been in years, how does that impact  your total high quality of appears to be like you’re getting? Particularly on gamers you haven’t had go by way of Arizona but?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey Matty, sorry I received’t be seeing you at FPAZ then. Yeah, the hitting atmosphere right here is normally nutty (resulting from pitcher high quality and altitude, and so forth.) and that’s the case once more this 12 months as we watch no less than one man are available and stroll/hit a bunch of dudes and completely alter the vibe and give-a-frick quotient of the sport we’re all watching…

Eric A Longenhagen: The “look” (stuff like athleticism, bat pace, any visible element) and the “efficiency” (everybody’s stats for the six week league) are nonetheless straightforward sufficient to separate to get one thing out of the league despite the fact that it’s a must to contextualize it

Roman: Padres followers are actually excited for Salas and De Vries. Even should you assume they’ll be pretty much as good as Merrill at 20, that places their ETA at 2027. What do you suppose is a sensible expectation?

Eric A Longenhagen: ’28-’29 someplace in there

Eric A Longenhagen: that’ simply their inventory 40-man timeline, which I feel is a match for each guys. Possibly De Vries catches up by a 12 months jsut as a result of enjoying MIF will not be as nuanced and tough as catching.

Reuben: Any smoke on enlargement with Oakland and Tampa transferring?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the event that they’ll must vacate the Trop for a whole season then it’d be cool/logical for the Rays to pilot enlargement in Charlotte or Nashville kinda just like the Hornets did in OKC after Katrina.

Eric A Longenhagen: In the event that they’re solely gonna have to remain out of the Trop till mid-’25 or so then I guess they play at a spring facility, even when it’s the Braves new spot in North Port or one thing like that moderately than their very own in Port Charlotte

Eric A Longenhagen: From what I’ve heard there’s nonetheless numerous evaluation of the Trop’s situation to do earlier than any avenues are literally mentioned.

The Hoffer: Curious should you noticed Eriq Swan final evening. Lot of attention-grabbing traits there however can he stick as a starter/what’s his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did Mesa/Scottsdale final evening, haven’t run into Swan but.

Jon: Kristian Campbell has flown up prospect boards, and there are reportedly individuals within the Sox FO who suppose he’s the most effective prospect within the system.  What are your ideas on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s within the prime 4 for positive and I spoke to a non-Sox particular person yesterday who thinks you may make a coherent argument for KC over each Anthony and Marcelo. Talked to somebody who tried to sooth my apprehension about Campbell’s swing by placing the Hunter Pence comp on him

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is it the warmth or the altitude on the AFL that’s resulting in the balls flying >110 mph? Both approach, how do you as a prospects author chip off EV or else modify energy grades when the atmosphere is nutty like within the PCL?

Eric A Longenhagen: For positive. I watched Saggese barely hit a ball (95 mph exit) that snuck out to the alternative area. The wind, strain, every thing is presently shifting right here as our seasons lastly change. There are dudes with large juice right here, although. If I can isolate exit velos from AFL and examine them to everybody’s common season information I ponder if there will probably be a constant delta throughout the pattern

O’Malley: WHat does Lawlar’s enjoying time appear to be subsequent 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: Obvioualy let’s watch to see what they do with Geno’s membership choice as a result of in the event that they don’t choose it up then Lawlar’s gonna be in there virtually instantly. I feel he’s going to play a ton however I guess Perdomo opens the 12 months because the starter…

Eric A Longenhagen: Any harm on their infield most likely slides Geraldo to that spot and Lawlar into the lineup at SS.

Eric A Longenhagen: So let’s say, like 400 PA for Lawlar subsequent 12 months?

Catherine: Are Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana prime 100 candidates going into this cycle? Early proof of enchancment on the a part of Nationals pitching dev (and if that’s the case any wider proof within the system?) or simply two guys with nice stuff who occurred to place it collectively?

Eric A Longenhagen: Positively candidates however not locks. Nats dev enchancment could be one thing I’d really feel extra comfy declaring as soon as I’ve completed that system and touched base on dozens of their guys.

Visitor: do you will have any perception on Briceno or Liranzo’s long run projections as soon as they get to Detroit?  Do you suppose both of them stick behind the plate?  If not, is the batted ball profile of both of them sturdy sufficient to justify a 1B or DH spot on the subsequent stage?   Simply curious to the kind of upside you suppose both could or could not possess

Eric A Longenhagen: Liranzo has seemed tough again there up to now this Fall however that’s virtually at all times the case right here. You’re gassed and catching an entire new workers of fellows. I feel each Briceno and Liranzo have the bodily traits of long-term catchers (measurement and sturdiness are so necessary) who, over time, present they will climate the beating catchers take and nonetheless produce. I really feel higher about Liranzo profiling at 1B/DH as a result of it’s such nutty switch-hitting energy. Briceno’s energy surge right here (he hit extra homers in a single sport than he had all season) is extra a product of the atmosphere, he solely actually smoked a type of homers.

Matt: Since you reside within the space, curious if in case you have you seen in the event that they’ve made any progress on renovations at Tempe Diablo Stadium? (Pitching/hitting labs, new clubhouse)

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve solely been within the stadium itself currently and never down by the ability that sits in the midst of the backfields

Mike R.: It appears like not a single Yankee prospect aside from Agustin Ramirez lived as much as expectations this 12 months. Hate to be grasping contemplating the most important league success, however went went improper in our farm system?

Eric A Longenhagen: I suppose I’d say I feel Lombard’s season was a hit however in any other case I see what you imply..

Eric A Longenhagen: I used to be not on Everson Pereira so his season doesn’t actually shock me. The truth that so lots of the younger pitchers barely performed (Chalniel Arias, Henry Lalane) was not nice. So lots of the high-upside elements of the system are in Complicated/A ball.

Ely: How involved ought to we be about Jun-Seok Shim? Even in tiny AFL pattern, his stuff doesn’t look proper.

Eric A Longenhagen: Regarded fairly terrible the day I noticed him. Sitting 90-91, tremendous brief and unathletic stride, breaking ball had okay depth however was straightforward to identify out of his hand.

Phil: Have you ever seen Danny Kirwin? He has an ideal story and I’d love him to make it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, funky method angle and massive time sweeper. Has a shot to make it.

Jim: What do you see Walcott doing subsequent 12 months, each in efficiency in addition to place?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is perhaps the most effective prospect in baseball by the top of the 12 months

Jason N: A Padres beat author lately made the declare that internally, the workforce more and more views DeVries as a greater prospect than Salas.  You coming round to that opinion, too?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna see how Leo traits on protection. If he’s a 2B then nah, gimme the catcher. I feel it’s high-quality to be extra assured that Leo will truly hit than Ethan.

Uncle Spike: What number of instances do it is advisable see a prospect earlier than you might be comfy placing a grade on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: With out the help of information and video in any respect? Most likely like 4 or 5 video games with no less than one BP and infield earlier than I get a have a look at each instrument.

Visitor: Hey Eric, do you will have any up to date ideas on Alex Freeland because you final wrote him up earlier than the season? Had a giant 12 months besides he struggled at AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nonetheless numerous swing and miss occurring there, huge time arm may permit him to play SS regardless of missing typical vary. Suppose he needs to be increased than I had him on final 12 months’s Dodger’s checklist however I don’t essentially suppose he’s a prime 100 man or something.

Lord Thunder: Tommy Troy. A giant sport final evening, however actually struggled earlier than that, together with the common season. Is he nonetheless a prime 100 man?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a type of guys who I’ll take all 6 weeks to eval earlier than feeling like I’ve to make a name. Bat could merely not be within the hitting zone for very lengthy inflicting numerous Ok’s, may be higher suited as an affect utility kind.

Kate: Did 2024 elevate any considerations for you with Drew Gilbert (aside from sturdiness)?  Or was this only a 12 months misplaced to harm and he’s nonetheless the identical man?

Eric A Longenhagen: His head is flying out a ton, he’s not monitoring the ball like I need to see from a man who was projected to make numerous contact. Evaluating his CF protection on tape will probably be a figuring out issue, I’ve seen him enjoying a nook in video games out right here up to now.

Kate: Does Drake Baldwin have the athleticism to play any non-catcher positions to get his bat within the MLB lineup?  Heard they could have been contemplating him within the outfield?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s constructed like a catcher, I feel he and Harry Ford are offseason commerce candidates.

doughboy: The Tigers have completed an ideal job of late creating beginning pitching arms. Is Rayner Castillo subsequent in line? Ideas on his projectability?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not tremendous on him off one look right here. Under avg athlete, t95, sitting 93, good slider. fringe 40 man RP for me

Michael: First time going to Arizona fall league any recommendation? Which parks ought to I prioritize?

Eric A Longenhagen: Examine the schedule throughout your dates right here and keep someplace you possibly can max out video games however reduce journey. have a look at the times with potential double ups and eat someplace enjoyable in between. examine ASU’s fall schedule and work in one in all their scrimmages should you can. I’d moderately keep East Valley than West in a vacuum.

Uncle Spike: If you find yourself scouting AFL video games, are you entering into with a handful of fellows you might be watching carefully or are you evaluating everybody on the sphere?

Eric A Longenhagen: Todos del peloteros.

Lord Thunder: One present minor leaguer who’s a slam dunk — or near it — being a beginning MLB SS. Who ya’ received?

Steve: Seems such as you’ve been one of many increased guys on Spencer Jones. His statline had a pleasant final 6 weeks of the season – what’s your present opinion of him and do you suppose he can modify to repair the swing and miss points?

Eric A Longenhagen: He seemed a multitude nearly all 12 months however I’m nonetheless inclined to guess on long run expertise and projection. He’s going to have such uncommon lefty energy that I’ll be comfy with being the excessive man on his this offseason. He’s a flawed participant however I feel he’ll finally make a giant energy affect.

Pam: Zhyir Hope rapidly ascending to be a prime 50 prospect? 25? Endurance, energy…solely 19…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s solely 19 however his physique is maxed so projecting on his physicality a ton doesn’t make sense. He’s additionally not an excellent outfielder proper now and I feel his hit instrument (or no less than the analysis of his hit instrument) stays fairly unstable. Having stated that, the facility/pace combo and his capacity to supply energy in a brief mechanical distance is fairly substantial. He may be a prime 100 man this offseason primarily based on his upside however I’m not gonna prime 25 him or something like that.

Doink: Ideas on the improved energy that Tre’ Morgan is seemingly exhibiting?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel I’m in

Eric A Longenhagen: really feel higher about him than I did about Manzardo after his AFL look

Andre Thee Large: What are the chances that Nolan McLean sticks as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel they’re okay, kinda within the scenario Schwellenbach was the place you wanna guess that he’ll enhance as soon as he specializes

Justin: What do you make of Jackson Merrill’s season, did anybody see this coming?

Eric A Longenhagen: however then i slid him coming into ’24 pondering he’d find yourself enjoying LF. No one may have seen him enjoying an excellent CF having had zero reps there, ever.

Eric A Longenhagen: lol have a look at Druw and Amador up there, although jfc

EonADS: Parker Messick took huge steps ahead this season in Cleveland’s system. Dominated AA hitters fully and improved throughout the board, together with inclining velocity, higher command, and an elevated ground-ball charge. Does he appear to be a 50 FV to you? As a result of he does to me.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s not loopy

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: May you agree a guess for me – which of you/Tess/Travis covers the mid-Atlantic?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tess has taken a step again from the location, Travis lives in Kansas (and I guess he will get employed by a workforce this offseason) and he and I each cowl every thing. I head residence to PA and drive up and down I-95 every year to see Jap, Int’l, Sally League stuff

Andre Thee Large: You had been the one analyst I learn who stated that Mark Vientos had improved sufficient defensively to be a reputable third baseman. Congrats.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks? I imply, he’s not nice over there.

Grandal Richuk: Are there any prospects proper now the place you’re keen to disregard the information you will have on them?

Eric A Longenhagen: The model-driven NPC varieties who it’s a must to speak the data-heavy analysts out of loving

Eddy: Omg, been ready for a chat to lastly ask you — the place do you sit on Mick Abel these days? Future RP?

Eric A Longenhagen: trying an increasing number of like that, i’ve received him towards the again of the 100 with all the opposite sturdy armed guys with zero really feel

Eric A Longenhagen: Oop, we’re previous 10. I’ve gotta cut up. Nice questions once more this week, together with many I didn’t get to. Wanting ahead to hopping on with you all once more subsequent Friday. Go try the FG Youtube channel for Fall League video. See you subsequent friday