The Delusion of Luis Arraez

“Among the finest hitters in baseball – final three years, batting titles with three totally different groups.” That’s the very first thing viewers heard about Luis Arraez this postseason, a quote from the underside of the primary inning of the Padres-Braves Wild Card sequence. Arraez singled and promptly scored on a Fernando Tatis Jr. dwelling run. It was simply the way you’d draw it up, and San Diego received a 4-0 laugher. That’s the promise of Arraez – a near-automatic baserunner fully proof against strikeout pitching.

“He’s a tricky dude to face… He might set the tone similar to Ohtani might set the tone for his or her respective golf equipment.” That one comes from the final sport Arraez performed this postseason, as he was mired in a deep hunch. After that first single, he went 2-for-8 with two extra singles the remainder of the Atlanta sequence. Then he went a desultory 4-for-22 (all singles) within the NLDS towards Dodgers. He fulfilled loads of the Arraez-ian promise we anticipate – only one strikeout in 31 plate appearances – however he merely couldn’t purchase a success.

It’s arduous to be taught a lot from a down sequence like that. Clearly, Arraez wasn’t contributing to the Padres offense – nobody contributes after they publish a 27 wRC+. However hidden in that assertion is an unspoken counterfactual: When Arraez goes, it’s implied, the Padres go. His single-hitting prowess is the straw that stirs the drink for a improbable offense that ranked eighth within the majors in runs scored this 12 months regardless of taking part in in one of many hardest offensive environments on the market.

There’s only one downside with that assertion: It’s not true. Arraez didn’t stir the drink for the Padres this 12 months, whilst he cruised to his third straight batting title. That sounds loopy, but it surely’s true. There’s simply one thing about that shiny batting common that messes with our capacity to guage gamers.

What’s the purpose of hitting in baseball? It’s to attain runs, clearly. There’s a beautiful statistic, RE24, that measures this instantly. RE24 is sort of easy. It takes the run expectancy of an inning earlier than every plate look and compares it to the run expectancy afterward, with the distinction credited or debited to the hitter. It’s context-dependent, which is clearly necessary once you’re speaking about scoring runs. Males on second and third with two outs? A single is manner higher than a stroll, and RE24 tells you that: A two-RBI single counts for 1.63 runs above common in that state of affairs, whereas a stroll counts for 0.22 runs. Bases empty to guide off the inning? A stroll and a single are the identical, 0.4 runs.

Batting common, on-base share, slugging share, even OPS+ and wRC+ — none of them actually seize this. RE24 measures it fairly properly. It’s not good, in fact. It doesn’t take staff composition under consideration, so getting on base in entrance of Juan Soto and Aaron Decide is undervalued. That’s a mark in Arraez’s favor, for the report — his staff has some actually good hitters batting after him, so getting on base is price a hair greater than a league common measure would recommend. RE24 can be extraordinarily noisy, as a result of batters have little management over the conditions they’re put in, so loads of what we’re measuring is context slightly than expertise. However in case you’re on the lookout for hitters who helped their groups rating extra runs — not theoretical runs or “in the long term this ability set is most well-liked” runs, however precise runs — it’s an awesome metric. It even offers a bonus for outs that allow runners advance, the cherished “productive out,” whereas subtracting factors for hitting into double performs.

So who was the most effective hitter in baseball by RE24 this 12 months? That may be Decide, and by a large margin. He added a whopping 95.7 runs of worth in 2024. Shohei Ohtani completed second with 79.6 runs, whereas Soto was third with 69; Tatis leads for playoff RE24. In case you have been explaining baseball to somebody who had by no means heard of it earlier than and had no idea of any statistics in any respect, you’d use one thing like this to level out who the most effective offensive gamers are. It’s easy: They’re those who assist their groups rating probably the most runs.

The leaders of this record completely move the instinct take a look at. Watch their video games, and also you’ll sense how a lot they matter. They’re continuously both amping up the stress or cashing in runners on base. They’re the highest-stress plate appearances for opponents. Nobody is getting a soda throughout their at-bat as a result of the sport may activate what occurs throughout it.

You may ascend to the highest of this leaderboard in additional methods than one. Jurickson Profar options extremely on the chart with out being a fearsome dwelling run hitter; he will get on base often and in addition sends runners on the basepaths dwelling with a boatful of singles and doubles. Jackson Chourio, Mookie Betts, and Jarren Duran are within the prime 25. Energy hitters, strike zone wizards, and doubles retailers all get their due.

Arraez’s RE24 clocked in at detrimental 3.34 this 12 months. Now, that’s not as unhealthy because it sounds. We calculate RE24 primarily based on final 12 months’s run scoring surroundings and true it up at 12 months’s finish (we replace it after the conclusion of each season in our regular end-of-year updates). There have been roughly 900 fewer runs scored this 12 months than final, and league-wide RE24 checked in at -946 – this can steadiness out (we even have some extra-inning changes to make). You may assign every plate look a slight optimistic adjustment to make up for that and recenter it round zero. That may add 3.5 runs to Arraez’s complete – and make him nearly precisely common.

Even wRC+, which has a decrease opinion of Arraez than the batting common apologists singing his praises, considered him as above common this 12 months. “Successful is best than a stroll” is among the central arguments that these of us make in advancing batting common over extra holistic measures of offensive manufacturing. There’s a disconnect right here someplace.

The factor is that Arraez, like all hitters, bats with the bases empty little bit of the time. We are able to evaluate how Arraez does in these conditions to the typical hitter fairly simply. The necessary numbers are on-base share (as a result of right here, a stroll actually is pretty much as good as a single) and additional bases per plate look. With no runners to advance, it solely issues the place the batter finally ends up.

In these conditions, Arraez acquits himself properly in the case of reaching base. He posted a .328 OBP with the bases empty, meaningfully higher than the league mark of .302. What does that imply when it comes to run expectancy? I needed a extra exact reply than a blanket adjustment, so I created my very own run expectancy desk utilizing knowledge from each common season sport this 12 months (excluding the ninth inning and additional innings, the place run scoring will get abbreviated because of walk-offs). Right here’s that matrix, only for posterity’s sake:

With that in hand, I plugged within the numbers, and shockingly, Arraez’s on-base ability doesn’t make him a helpful hitter with nobody on base. That’s as a result of Arraez is barely ever getting you first base, roughly, and that’s simply not as helpful as you’d assume. With nobody out, you would get on base at a .360 clip with no extra-base hits in any respect and be value-neutral. I obtained that quantity by evaluating the distinction between what you achieve by placing a runner on first with nobody out (.399 runs) and what you lose by going from no outs to 1 out with the bases empty (-.226 runs).

That breakeven on-base share will get larger because the outs tick up, naturally – a runner on first will get much less helpful because the probability of driving him in earlier than the inning ends goes down. It’s .387 with one out and .421 with two outs. In case you’re simply going to first, you must do it quite a bit to make the maths work. Everyone knows this implicitly; when your staff’s pitcher walks somebody with nobody out, it looks like a catastrophe. After they stroll somebody with two out, it’s a minor misstep.

These OBPs are actually arduous to realize. However run expectancy sums as much as zero by default. How can that be the case? It’s since you’re allowed to get additional bases too. Doubles, triples, and homers add way more to run expectancy than singles. Throughout the league, roughly 25% of on-base occasions (walks, HBPs, and hits) produce additional bases. Arraez is down at 17% – and consequently, regardless of a .328 OBP with the bases empty, he’s value the Padres 2.7 runs with the bases empty this 12 months. Now, it’s in all probability barely lower than that, as a result of the fellows after him are fairly good at hitting dwelling runs, and people will drive him in from first simply as absolutely as they’ll from second. However amongst Padres with 200 or extra plate appearances this 12 months, Arraez was eighth in runs per plate look, even main off and batting in entrance of the ability hitters. If his job is simply to attain a ton of runs, it’s truthful to say that he didn’t knock it out of the park this 12 months.

One other mind-set about this puzzle? We all know that Arraez was a barely above-average hitter by wRC+ this 12 months. That statistic, and others prefer it, deal with a single as higher than a stroll, as in fact they need to. They’re holistic measures of context-neutral manufacturing, and there are many spots the place a stroll isn’t pretty much as good as a single. However with the bases empty, there’s no distinction. Arraez is getting over-valued in these particular conditions. The constants in wRC+ will let you know that on common, 5 walks and 4 singles (plus an out) present equal worth. However that’s on common, not with the bases empty – there 5 equals 5.

There’s an additional problem at play right here. One of many causes folks extol Arraez’s ability set is that he places the ball in play. You may’t advance a runner with a strikeout – or you possibly can, but it surely’s a lot much less probably than doing so with a ball in play. However with the bases empty, that benefit is totally gone. There aren’t any runners to advance. You both attain base otherwise you don’t.

So let’s settle for that Arraez isn’t serving to his staff on this state of affairs. Sadly, he’s batting with the bases empty way more often than your common hitter. Two thirds of his plate appearances got here with the bases empty, as in comparison with 57% for all batters. That’s completely a perform of batting him leadoff – his bases empty plate look charge is useless common for leadoff hitters.

To his credit score, Arraez’s singles do carry additional weight in some apparent conditions: runners in scoring place with a base open. The rationale singles are higher than walks is as a result of they will advance runners already on base. Arraez was superior in these conditions in 2024. I depend 84 of them (first and third, second and third, simply second, simply third) in his sport logs, and he hit a bonkers .434/.476/.487 in these plate appearances. Yeah, that’ll do, to the tune of 9.36 runs above common. Juicy!

However we’re doing a little cherry choosing there by slicing issues up into small samples. Arraez was a lot worse with both a runner on first, first and second, or with the bases loaded. He hit .316/.321/.404, which doesn’t sound terrible, however OBP and slug are the related numbers when there’s a runner on first. That’s as a result of a stroll does loads of work on the runner development entrance, whereas extra-base hits can set the merry-go-round going and break the station-to-station sport large open. However Arraez didn’t excel at getting on base (his OBP was solely 5 factors above league common with runners on) or hitting for energy (his slug was 20 factors beneath common) in these moments. He additionally obtained unfortunate; he hit .250 with no walks once I add a “two out” filter to the above, and protecting the inning going is the important thing a part of batting with two outs. In all, he misplaced 9.2 runs right here.

A number of that comes out within the wash, as you may anticipate once I’m arbitrarily separating base/out states. With runners on base and two outs total, as in comparison with separated into base open/base not open subcategories, Arraez batted .326/.360/.431 and had a optimistic run worth. This looks like noise to me – I don’t assume there’s any true expertise purpose for Arraez to battle with two outs in some runners-on conditions and excel in others.

Right here’s one other manner of placing it: In complete, Arraez was a better-than-average hitter with runners on base. He occurred to get unfortunate when it comes to when he scattered these hits; he hit .311/.333/.333 with two runners on (48 PA), and .154/.214/.154 with the bases loaded (14 PA). In the meantime, he hit .390/.407/.487 with just one runner on (162 PA). Even these out, and we’d be a optimistic run worth, round 4 runs if I pressure the identical batting line in each state of affairs. His good points right here don’t simply come from his singles – additionally they come from him placing the ball in play, the place the additional developments he creates outnumber the double performs he hits into.

However Arraez bats with runners on base lower than the typical hitter. He bats with the bases empty way over the typical hitter. And people singles simply don’t assist as a lot as you assume. Additional-base hits are the true run-scoring foreign money. Singles solely typically produce extra development than walks, and so they nearly by no means advance the runner previous first. Doubles and up all the time do each.

(As an apart, that is an argument for why he ought to bat third, with some runners to drive in with all these singles. Folks ought to admire him for his unprecedented contact expertise in an period of strikeouts and homers. However one way or the other, as a result of he retains profitable batting titles, he’s typecast as an elite leadoff hitter, and I simply can’t wrap my head round it.)

In previous years, Arraez has chipped in his justifiable share of extra-base hits because of some line drive doubles within the hole. However this 12 months, he batted 55 extra occasions than he did final 12 months and gathered 4 fewer extra-base hits. He batted 69 extra occasions than he did in 2022 and had one fewer extra-base hit. The one 12 months his charge of additional bases per plate look has been solely decrease was in 2021, his worst offensive season. It’s arduous to understand an influence outage in a singles hitter, however Arraez had one this 12 months, and it completely affected his total manufacturing.

This may be manifestly apparent in case you solely checked out holistic measures of offensive manufacturing. Arraez’s wRC+ is down sharply, from a 130 mark in 2022 and 2023 to 109 this season. His OPS+ fell from 128 to 106. His wOBA, xwOBA, DRC+, batting common, on-base share, and slugging share all pointed a method. It’s fairly clear that he was a meaningfully worse hitter this 12 months than in years previous. He obtained on base 22% greater than common and slugged 13% above common in 2023; this 12 months, he obtained on base a mere 10% greater than common and slugged 3% beneath common.

Batting common sticks in our head as a result of it’s one of many first baseball statistics we be taught. However in the identical manner that barrel charge and most exit velocity don’t paint an ideal image of worth, batting common is lacking tons of helpful inputs. It’s usually correlated – Ted Williams and Barry Bonds hit for common as a result of they hit for all the pieces – but it surely’s only a easy statistical marker, and people could be deceptive with out the right context.

“This man is a three-time batting champion” is undoubtedly true. But it surely’s additionally true that this model of Arraez wasn’t a distinction maker for San Diego. Twelve totally different Padres hitters produced extra RE24 than Arraez. It’s an actual disgrace. I admire Arraez as a participant. He’s an entire anachronism, and when he’s at peak kind, he’s a helpful hitter. However as a result of he occurs to have a excessive batting common, individuals who declare they’re “anti-statistics” and “old skool” assume he’s a star. A excessive batting common doesn’t make you a star any greater than a excessive barrel charge does. They’re each good. I’d want both to the alternative. However neither is a few sort of assured marker of success.

I assume that the individuals who solely care about batting common received’t discover this place very compelling. They’re in all probability past convincing at this level. However I hope that I’m improper, as a result of I actually do imagine in my argument. After I trot out whomps per whiff or some sort of barrel-rate leaderboard, I’m not attempting to say that these guys are all essentially stars. I’m merely mentioning a part of excellent hitting, and saying that these gamers are good at it.

Batting common is like that too! It measures precisely what it says it measures. Utilizing it as an all-purpose offensive statistic is lacking the purpose. In case you’re attempting to grasp why, you don’t need to look additional than Luis Arraez, the 2024 Nationwide League batting champion – and a miscast leadoff hitter who value his staff 2.6 runs relative to common on the plate this 12 months, by far the worst full season of his profession.