The Padres noticed their season come to an finish final night time by the hands of their division rivals in Los Angeles, however regardless of that disappointing finish the 2024 marketing campaign was nonetheless affected by loads of vibrant spots for followers in San Diego. Maybe probably the most vital amongst these was the emergence of Jackson Merrill, who entered Spring Coaching as a shortstop prospect with simply 46 video games on the Double-A degree below his belt and turned a shock Opening Day task in heart discipline into an outstanding rookie season.
Earlier than that sensational season got here collectively, nevertheless, it appears the Padres have been already hoping to lock within the teenager’s companies for the lengthy haul. A report from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin earlier at this time revealed that San Diego brass mentioned the opportunity of an extension with Merrill final offseason, earlier than the teenager had even made his MLB debut. The edges, in fact, didn’t wind up coming collectively on a deal. That didn’t cease the Padres from putting in Merrill in heart discipline to kick off the season, nevertheless, and Merrill rewarded his membership’s confidence in him with a season that noticed him seem in 156 video games whereas slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals in 19 makes an attempt, and a 130 wRC+.
Merrill’s debut season, throughout which he was simply 21 years outdated, was the type of marketing campaign that conjures up confidence in a younger gamers capability to provide on the large league degree. In spite of everything, Merrill confirmed off a powerful and assorted profile that ought to assist him proceed to affect the Padres in all kinds of the way going ahead. The teenager not solely flashed spectacular energy with a .208 ISO that was second to solely Aaron Choose amongst certified heart fielders this 12 months, however he additionally struck out at a superb 17% clip that was second to solely Cody Bellinger by that very same metric. And whereas his protection didn’t obtain the common reward lauded on gamers like Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho, Merrill’s +12 Outs Above Common on the place put him within the 97th percentile amongst large leaguers and made him the seventh most precious defensive heart fielder within the sport by the metric.
That mixture of energy, contact, and protection at a precious up-the-middle place would make Merrill figures to depart Merrill as a wildly enticing extension candidate, significantly provided that he’s at the moment scheduled to achieve free company after his age-26 marketing campaign. With that being mentioned, the worth of extending a teenager of Merrill’s expertise is certain to have gone up for the Padres relative to final winter now that he’s confirmed he can deal with large league pitching. A take a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker showcases how profitable even one dominant season within the large leagues might be, as each Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez landed nine-figure extensions within the last months of their respective Rookie of the 12 months campaigns.
Whereas the presence of budding ace Paul Skenes may complicate Merrill’s personal pursuit of that award, his 5.3 fWAR in his rookie season falls in the course of Acuna’s 4.4 determine and Rodriguez’s 5.8, although it’s price noting that Acuna was a 12 months youthful than both Rodriguez or Merrill throughout his rookie season. Given his similarity to these kids, it appears affordable to anticipate that Merrill would garner a assure properly above the $100MM Acuna landed even when Rodriguez’s convoluted $210MM assure just isn’t precisely the only level of comparability.
For San Diego’s half, they’ve actually proven a willingness to spend closely on extensions for younger gamers up to now. The obvious instance of that is the $340MM deal the membership made with Fernando Tatis Jr. previous to his third season with the membership, although Jake Cronenworth’s seven-year extension signed simply earlier than the beginning of the 2023 season is one other noteworthy instance of the membership committing to a long-term extension for a participant with a number of years of crew management remaining. After all, each of these offers got here collectively below the possession of the late Peter Seidler, and the Padres started to reduce their payroll final 12 months following his passing and Eric Kutsenda’s ascent to the position of interim management individual.
Extending Merrill may even have a major affect on the membership’s luxurious tax payroll going ahead. Because the luxurious tax is calculated based mostly on common annual worth, back-loaded extensions such because the one signed by Tatis early in his profession or a hypothetical Merrill extension typically have a much more vital affect on a membership’s luxurious tax positioning than they do on the membership’s precise payroll within the early years of the deal. That would show to be an impediment for the Padres, who per RosterResource at the moment have a assured payroll of simply over $231MM for 2025 earlier than factoring in offseason additions of arbitration-level contracts for gamers like Luis Arraez and Michael King.
