Can anybody cease the Mets? That’s not a query I anticipated to be asking this 12 months, until it was “Can anybody cease the Mets from signing marquee free brokers?” or “Can anybody cease the Mets from imploding in essentially the most Mets-y approach conceivable?” However because the Nationwide League Division Collection begins, the Mets are on a kind of team-of-destiny runs that appears like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s no deficit they will’t overcome, no lead they will’t squander after which retake within the subsequent inning. They’re upping the diploma of problem considerably beginning Saturday, although: The Phillies have been top-of-the-line groups in baseball all 12 months, they usually’re rested and prepared for what guarantees to be an thrilling collection.
A story of the tape – Francisco Lindor is nice at x, Bryce Harper is nice at y, Zack Wheeler and Kodai Senga will sq. off in Sport 1, so on and so forth – doesn’t really feel like the proper method to describe this collection. As an alternative, I’m going to give attention to how every crew tries to win, and the way these plans are almost definitely to go awry.
The Mets have thrived offensively this 12 months with a easy blueprint: energy on the high of the lineup and Jose Iglesias by some means doing the whole lot else. Lindor is so good that he’s virtually an offense unto himself: He led the Mets in runs (107), RBI (91), steals (29), on-base share (.344), slugging share (.500), and just about the whole lot else you’ll be able to think about, aside from house runs (33). In that class, he completed one off the crew lead behind Pete Alonso. Alonso had a down 12 months in 2024, however he’s excellent on the ability the Mets most want from him: clobbering homers to drive in Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and typically Iglesias. Mark Vientos capabilities as a second Alonso; he’s there to hit homers or advance runners with situational hitting, however he’s recent out of situational hitting.
This plan has labored fairly properly all 12 months, and it’s labored significantly properly within the string of playoff and playoff-like video games they’ve gained this week. The highest 5 hitters mixed to drive in all of the runs in Monday’s playoff-clinching win in opposition to the Braves. Iglesias and Vientos keyed Tuesday’s victory over the Brewers. A 3-run Alonso homer was all of the scoring they wanted to ship Milwaukee house Thursday evening. It’s hardly an unsustainable plan; the Mets had been seventh in wRC+ (109) and in addition runs scored (768) this 12 months, near-doppelgängers for the Phillies.
What might go improper with New York’s offense? It’s fairly simple to know. If Lindor, Alonso, and Vientos aren’t supplying the ability, runs are onerous to come back by. Even with Iglesias delivering a career-best season as a slap-hitting spark plug, the Mets play station to station. They’re one of many worst baserunning groups within the majors. Lindor is the largest exception to this rule, although Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, and Nimmo are additionally keen to take an additional base right here and there. For essentially the most half, runs come both from the mixed excellence of the crew’s greatest hitters or from stringing collectively a ton of singles to drive house a few of the plodders.
Shutting down the Mets may sound easy – maintain their good hitters off the board – but it surely’s not simple. Alonso and Vientos crush fastballs. Nimmo and Lindor excel in opposition to chase-seeking secondaries. Iglesias will swing at something and ceaselessly make contact – and this 12 months, he’s turning most of that contact into flared singles. One-trick pony pitchers who lean on one or the opposite of a nasty slider or big fastball will run into hassle in opposition to the Mets.
Fortunately for the Phillies, that doesn’t describe their starters in any respect. Wheeler is a five-trick pony, at minimal: He throws six pitches, and solely his split-change is under common. He additionally has nice command and pitches deep into video games. I imply, clearly he does: He’s one of many best pitchers in baseball, and he has been for the reason that day he went to Philadelphia. Aaron Nola is an in a position second banana; he’ll have his best benefit in opposition to Alonso and Vientos because of a hammer curveball.
Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez could have their work minimize out for them on this collection – lefty sinkerballers don’t match up properly in opposition to the Mets’ righty energy bats. Nonetheless, they’re wonderful choices as no. 3 and 4 starters. The third and fourth video games of the collection are sandwiched by journey days, and Wheeler and Nola typically give the bullpen a break on their begins. That units the Phillies as much as go bullpen-heavy when their lefties are on the mound and assault the highest of the Mets order with a succession of nice relievers.
The Philadelphia bullpen was top-of-the-line within the majors all 12 months, a lot in order that it’s nonetheless a high unit regardless of buying and selling away a number of contributing relievers on the deadline. That power can be blunted considerably in opposition to the Mets, although; New York completely crushed lefty pitching this 12 months, and the Phillies have three standout southpaw relievers. One of the best spot to deploy a lefty might be in opposition to the Lindor-Vientos/Iglesias-Nimmo portion of the order, however that’s not even excellent.
Nonetheless, the Phillies are deep. Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, and even José Ruiz convey strikeout stuff from the proper facet. If I had been managing the Phillies, I’d maintain rotating matchups to forestall Vientos and Alonso from seeing any of those arms too usually. I’d combine in a few of the good lefties in opposition to them in low-leverage spots, and possibly even organize for a Taijuan Walker sighting.
Controlling the highest half of the lineup is a number of the problem when dealing with the Mets, and the Phillies definitely have the arms to do it. However baseball being what it’s, that’s no assure of success. Lindor, Nimmo, and Alonso have hit the largest homers of the 12 months for the Mets, all three this week. They got here off of righty relievers with ERAs of three.67, 1.98, and 1.25, respectively. A technique this collection might go: Philadelphia sends its greatest pitchers on the Mets, and the Mets come out victorious.
After all, the Phillies get to bat too. In some methods, they’re constructed equally to their rivals; the highest of their order options two energy threats and a multi-talented shortstop, and the remainder of the hitters aren’t practically pretty much as good. Of their case, although, the shortstop looks like a reasonably clear third banana as a substitute of the complete offensive identification of the crew. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies offense in some ways. They’ve comparable skillsets and have produced comparable worth this 12 months. You’ll battle to make them chase. They’ll swing out of their footwear making an attempt to hit homers. They may strike out in consequence – however they have an inclination to take action on their very own phrases, taking big hacks at pitches that they’ll obliterate in the event that they make contact.
Trea Turner bats between them and does slightly little bit of the whole lot. I’m anticipating him to amp up the baserunning aggression in October; this was by far the worst baserunning 12 months of his profession, however the playoffs look like a great time to eschew sensible long-term well being administration and put your foot on the gasoline pedal. Even when he isn’t stealing bases and making aggressive developments, although, he’s an excellent hitter. He’ll get to face a ton of southpaws because of his lineup place between two lefty sluggers, and he’s been 10% higher with the platoon benefit over his prolonged profession.
Like its counterpart in New York, the Philly lineup falls off after its high guys. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm bat fourth and fifth in some order most days, and at instances they’ve been nice: Castellanos has a 132 wRC+ within the second half of the season, and Bohm made the All-Star crew because of a scorching first half. However that sizzling streak from Castellanos introduced his profession mark with the Phillies as much as a 103 wRC+, and 105 for the 2024 season. In the meantime, Bohm cooled off onerous within the second half (90 wRC+).
I believe the important thing to the Mets offense is how a lot the highest guys can do harm in opposition to excellent opposition. I believe that the important thing to the Phillies lineup, then again, is whether or not the underside half could make life simpler for Harper and pals. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh appear like platoon bats at this level of their careers. Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa are the opposite half of these platoons, however they hardly strike worry into opposing pitchers. J.T. Realmuto is the wild card right here; he acquired higher because the 12 months went on, in stark distinction to what you’d anticipate from a 33-year-old catcher. If he’s extra MVP candidate than defensive specialist who can hit slightly, the lineup will look deeper and scarier for Mets pitchers. If he and Castellanos flip into pumpkins, the crew could be counting on Wheeler and Nola to win a number of 2-1 video games.
Talking of 2-1 duels, the Mets rotation strains up pretty properly in opposition to the Phillies, although it merely doesn’t have the identical firepower as Philadelphia does in its rotation. Senga will get the beginning in Sport 1, however with solely 19 2/3 innings pitched throughout all ranges this 12 months due to a number of accidents, he’s most likely not going to pitch deep into the sport. Tylor Megill would’ve been subsequent in line to attract that begin, so he’ll presumably be readily available as an extended reliever if vital. Senga’s look might be extraordinarily brief; the final time he threw a number of aggressive innings got here in the course of July in a minor league recreation, and even that look lasted solely three innings.
Luis Severino was Senga’s substitute atop the rotation this 12 months; relying on how Senga seems in Sport 1, both he or Severino would presumably draw a Sport 5 task. Due to the way in which the schedule strains up, Severino could be on common relaxation for that one even after he pitches Sport 2, a boon to the Mets after they performed 5 video games in 4 days this week. The Senga/Megill recreation is the hardest one to determine; I believe that it is going to be a de facto bullpen recreation until Senga seems dominant and covers a minimum of just a few innings, which is principally unknowable at this level.
When the collection shifts again to New York, the Mets will convey out their lefties: Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. Manaea was Severino’s equal this 12 months, and I believe I’d take him over Severino if I had to decide on considered one of them for one recreation solely, however his relaxation schedule gained’t enable him to go twice within the collection. Quintana continues to be the identical pitcher – he’s artful and might nonetheless spin a pleasant curveball, however his nice expertise is in bulk innings, not dominance. If he can get the Phillies chasing within the early going, he may put up a begin to rival his six scoreless innings in opposition to the Brewers in Sport 3 of the Wild Card Collection. If he begins falling behind within the rely, it could be an extended evening for the Mets, and a brief one for him.
I anticipate the Mets to be extraordinarily cautious about letting Schwarber and Harper see the identical pitcher for a 3rd time. I’d be keen to present New York’s two lefty starters an opportunity the third time via, however I wouldn’t let Megill strive it if the sport is shut, and I wouldn’t really feel nice about Senga’s (assuming he may even face 18+ batters) or Severino’s probabilities. That places the crew in a difficult spot, as a result of it doesn’t have many efficient lefty relievers. David Peterson is the best choice, however he’s a swingman, not a high-leverage arm. Danny Younger is the one different lefty on the squad, and whereas he’s a basic sinker/slider LOOGY, I wouldn’t be tripping throughout myself to get him into the sport in opposition to two top-tier sluggers.
In a approach, although, that lack of lefties might be releasing. Platoon matchups aren’t as necessary as simply utilizing good pitchers, and if the Mets aren’t forcing themselves to play the handedness recreation, they will flip their greatest relievers free in opposition to the highest of the lineup and work the whole lot else out later. Edwin Díaz is snug getting into video games earlier than the ninth inning and in addition snug getting greater than three outs; I’d take him over Peterson and Younger any day. Reed Garrett, José Buttó, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek might all draw lefty-slugger responsibility as properly. The important thing can be various up the seems whereas deploying good relievers in good spots, which is less complicated mentioned than carried out. Carlos Mendoza has carried out a great job of it to date, although. He’ll get an opportunity to sink or swim on a much bigger stage beginning Saturday.
Due to the construction of this text, it most likely looks like I believe the collection is a toss-up. I don’t; the lineups could be comparable, however the rotations aren’t. I’d name the groups evenly matched in Video games 3 and 4, however Wheeler is miles higher than anybody on the Mets workers. That’s two video games the place the Phillies could have an enormous benefit within the early innings. Nola isn’t any slouch both. ZiPS provides the Phillies a large 66% probability of advancing because of their edge in beginning pitching. Playing markets are practically as bullish; they’ve the Phillies round 65% to win the collection. Our easy projection-based mannequin provides them a 64% probability; PECOTA has it 60/40. The Phillies are undoubtedly the higher crew.
A much less intrepid preview author may depart it at that. I’ll exit on a limb, although, and say that I believe these odds are too low on the Mets. They aren’t 50% to win this collection, clearly. The Phillies are better-rested and gained the NL East by six video games. However the two groups had the identical BaseRuns document. The Mets didn’t simply get sizzling this week; they’ve the very best document in baseball since June 1. They’ve outscored the Phillies over that stretch and allowed fewer runs. They had been actually abysmal within the early going this 12 months, and full-season stats and projections do a greater job of predicting playoff success than arbitrary-endpoint streaks, however this isn’t some scrappy underdog squad. The Mets are legit and fairly able to going toe-to-toe with anybody on this juggernaut-light 12 months.
So my prediction? Mets in 4. I’m going in opposition to what the numbers say, and I don’t suppose I’m 50% prone to be proper. However I do suppose that the broader baseball public is just too assured in Philly’s probabilities, and I like going in opposition to the grain. So there you have got it. In a matchup the place the groups are extra alike than they’re completely different, small edges might decide the collection. Gimme “OMG” remixes with Pitbull over a will-they-won’t-they relationship with “Dancing On My Personal,” significantly in the event that they aren’t going with the unique Robyn model. And if I decide the Mets after which they get drubbed in three lopsided video games? Nicely, what’s extra Mets-y than that? It’s a no-lose proposition.
