We attempt to unfold issues out right here at FanGraphs Dot Com, so it’s uncommon for us to have articles about the identical participant on consecutive days. However yesterday, we ran a narrative by Davy Andrews on Victor Robles, who’s been one of many uncommon vivid spots for the Seattle Mariners this season. Robles was launched by the Washington Nationals in early June — which is itself a reasonably darkish omen — however in 68 video games with Seattle, he’s carried out at a celebrity degree, and… you recognize what, simply go learn Davy’s piece.
One thing this unexpectedly optimistic might be not going to final ceaselessly. Even when Robles has rediscovered himself after years of hitting like a pitcher, I’d take the below on his OBP staying within the .400s for the long run. Which is the inherent irony of a narrative like that: By the point a scorching streak is price writing about, it’s often nearer to the tip than the start. However even by these requirements, Davy obtained a extremely horrible break. On Tuesday night time, Robles pulled off the baseball equal of flying his cling glider right into a set of high-tension wires. He obtained lifted within the third inning on account of a hand harm, however not earlier than he made one of many extra baffling baserunning gaffes I can keep in mind.
I’m not right here particularly to dump on Robles, who in spite of everything was 25-for-25 in stolen base makes an attempt with Seattle to that time. Captain Bartholomew Roberts was the final Mariner to steal so regularly and so efficiently.
The context for this clip is that the Mariners have been down 2-0 within the prime of the primary inning, with the bases loaded, two outs, and a 3-0 depend to Justin Turner.
So, I’ll say one thing in Robles’ protection. I get what he was considering. For the time being he broke for residence, he was on an all-timer of a basestealing heater, he had an enormous secondary lead, and no one was him. Least of all of the pitcher, Luis Gil, who was bent over together with his again to 3rd base, futzing with the rosin bag.
It’s fairly widespread for soccer coaches to go away a standing order for a faux punt. Fairly than decide a second based mostly on sport state of affairs, the coach will inform his particular groups captain to audible to a faux anytime he sees the opposition lined up in a sure manner. Having designed the faux to reap the benefits of a numerical benefit on one aspect of the formation or the opposite, the coach trusts his gamers to execute for a possible first down.
And that’s type of what occurred right here. Robles didn’t break for residence as a result of he’s a lunatic or an fool, he took off as a result of he acknowledged that the Yankees had given him a large opening. Even after Gil perked up instantly and made an ideal throw, it was nonetheless a bang-bang play on the plate.
And let’s not act just like the Mariners’ couldn’t have used a spark. They may not be lifeless — they have been nonetheless above 10% playoff odds coming into play Tuesday — however they’ve actually felt lifeless for a scorching minute. Their beforehand unhittable breakout pitcher, Bryan Woo, had simply been tagged for 2 runs within the prime of the primary, and we will debate the idea of momentum all night time, however in a second like that, certainly Robles would’ve identified that his group might use a morale increase. Higher baserunners than Robles have gone on tilt and tried to drive one thing when their group is shedding and has struggled to attain runs.
With that mentioned, Turner has a profession .362 OBP, and Gil had already hit Robles and walked two different batters within the inning. Not one of the first three pitches of the plate look was shut. Odds are, Robles was coming residence on the following pitch anyway, both on a stroll or by advantage of Turner hitting a get-me-over fastball into the hole. And with two outs, the draw back was taking the bat out of the arms of a very good hitter in a positive depend, and wiping a bases-loaded state of affairs off the board. Which turned out to be fairly unhelpful for a group that, as soon as once more, is twenty fourth within the majors in runs.
The totality of it — the toughest base to steal, the truth that failure erased essentially the most advantageous doable mixture of depend and baserunners — is simply staggering. Clearly it’s not essentially the most damaging stolen base try in historical past, as a result of whereas the Mariners are combating for his or her playoff lives (or not less than they have been), that is nonetheless the primary inning of a daily season sport. As soon as upon a time, Babe Ruth obtained caught stealing to finish Recreation 7 of the World Collection with a .300 hitter on the plate. By that normal, what Robles did is small potatoes.
So I went to Baseball Savant and regarded for precedent: Three-ball depend, two outs, runner caught stealing to finish the inning. Earlier than Robles, there had been 59 different cases since 2008, which is way back to the database goes, and just one different this 12 months. (In a kind of glitch-in-the-Matrix coincidences, the final two occasions this occurred earlier than Tuesday, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was on the plate.)
I’m a little bit stunned that it doesn’t occur extra. It’s widespread for the runner to be put in movement with three balls and two outs — no matter whether or not there are two strikes — as a result of there’s no hazard of the runner being doubled off on a ball within the air. And, on this state of affairs, we solely get a runner thrown out 3 1/2 occasions a 12 months, throughout the complete league?
Oh nicely. Of the 59 failed stolen base makes an attempt, 51 have been both an tried steal of second or an tried steal of third with a runner on first — in different phrases, the baserunners tried to get a soar on a stroll however the batter unexpectedly obtained a strike. In 18 of these cases, the hitter even swung and missed on the pitch, making the play, basically, a blown hit-and-run.
Of the remaining performs, my favourite is that this 2018 try by Javier Báez to steal third base. By that time, the hitter, Ben Zobrist, was close to the tip of his profession, however he was nonetheless fairly useful with the bat in his arms. Plus, the depend was 3-0.
Extra to the purpose, Báez obtained as unhealthy a soar as you’ll see, and ended up getting thrown out by — and I feel Statcast will again me up on this — about 1,000,000 miles. What Robles did was a large danger, however I feel this was a worse baserunning choice.
There’s one, and just one, occasion of a runner getting caught stealing residence with three balls and two outs in an inning: On June 26, 2011, Matt Treanor swung by way of a 3-0 pitch with Jeff Francoeur on first and Alex Gordon on third, with the Royals up 4-1 on the Cubs within the backside of the third inning. I can’t discover video of the incident, and the Related Press recap of the sport doesn’t point out it, however based mostly on the field rating, it seems to be like this was a failed double steal. Catcher Geovany Soto threw to shortstop Starlin Castro, who obtained the ball again residence in time to get Gordon on the plate. Regardless of, Kansas Metropolis gained 6-3, and no one considered both of those groups once more for one more three years.
There are greater than 100 different cases of runners getting caught stealing residence with two outs within the pitch monitoring period, no matter depend, however solely three with the bases loaded. The newest occurred in 2015, so there’s no video on Baseball Savant. Fortunately, I discovered written descriptions of all three, so let’s see how these incidents have been acquired on the time.
On April 14, 2012, Brett Lawrie bolted for residence with the bases loaded and José Bautista on the plate. And in the event you wanted any info aside from “Brett Lawrie” to know whether or not that was considered as a sensible alternative, supervisor John Farrell known as it a “main baserunning mistake.” Bautista, not wanting to hold his 22-year-old teammate out to dry, known as Lawrie “gutsy” and speculated that he would’ve been secure with a greater slide.
On August 24, 2012, Josh Donaldson obtained thrown out attempting to steal residence with the bases loaded and two outs. Despite the fact that the A’s went on to win that sport, Joe Stiglich’s recap within the San Jose Mercury Information the following morning began as follows: “ A doozy of a baserunning blunder by Josh Donaldson threatened to sink the A’s on Friday…”
The third failed steal of residence got here on April 22, 2015, when Torii Hunter thought he noticed Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie go to the windup and took off. Hunter, who was 39 occurring 40 by this level, obtained thrown out. However similar to the standing faux punt name, he’d talked the matter over with supervisor Paul Molitor beforehand and acquired Molitor’s blessing. At that time, it’s not a rash choice by a participant appearing alone, it’s a premeditated gamble by a savvy veteran, with the approval of the supervisor. Additionally, the Twins gained the sport, and as a lot as we nerds love to speak about course of, this can be a results-based enterprise.
Which is principally what Mariners supervisor Dan Wilson mentioned after the sport: “That’s a state of affairs the place you’ve obtained to know you’re going to make it.”
As a result of in the event you don’t, it’s going to seem like one of many worst baserunning selections of the previous 20 years.
